Super Bowl Matchups: Star Charts

How big an upset was the Patriot's victory over the Rams? Our pre-game scoring projection favored the Rams, but only by 5 points. Why did our hardware tab this as a much closer game than the experts, the public and even the oddsmakers?

The star charts below show team performance on 6 different stat categories: rush-clock control, pass efficiency, QB Sacks, INTs, fumbles and field position. The bigger the polygon, the sronger the team.

The chart for Rams offense facing Patriots defense (below, Rams in navy blue) shows that Rams are strong on passing efficiency (ranked 100 percentile on a 100 percentile scale--league's best). But on INTS Rams ranked a low 27 percentile and a puny 3 percentile on Fumbles Lost.

And in the game, indeed the Rams QB Curt Warner threw 2 INTS and the team lost 1 fumble. On these giveaways the Pats earned a big 13-point edge.

The next chart shows that the much improved Rams defense is strong against the rush and the pass. But the Pats have an advantage in both INTs and fumbles--they don't the give the ball away.

The final chart shows the difference between what a team's offense earns and what their defense allows. So this chart pictures two team's offensive and defensive performances on 6 key stats in one compact view. Each team has advantages: Rams on passing efficiency and QB sacks, Patriots on field position and both turnover stats: fumbles and interceptions.

Before the Super Bowl the Rams had a 9-point advantage on passing efficiency as mentioned in our Killer Stat feature. And in the game Ram QB Curt Warner earned 7+ yards per toss to Pat QB Brady's mere 4+ for a 9-point edge.

On the giveaway stats, the Pats' D played takeaway. What happened? Ram QB Curt Warner threw 2 INTs and the Rams lost 1 fumble for a 13-point edge for the underdog Patriots.

So the game played to the BudGoodeSports Star Chart's statistical form.

And finally this. Note the relative sizes of the two team's polygons. Games in which one team truly is a lopsided favorite show the stronger team's polygon completely surrounding or dwarfing the polygon of the weaker team.