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Power Ratings
According to Bud Goode's computer-aided analysis of pro football a good power rating system is determined by simply dividing points scored on offense by points allowed on defense.

The average team earns one point on offense for each point given up on defense and has a ratio of 1.00. Divisional champs earn 1.5 points for each point given up and cellar dwellers earn about 1 point for each 2 points allowed. An average team should be close to an 8-8 record.

Here are the power ratings for last year's playoff teams:

2000 Playoff Teams
1 Batimore Ravens 2.02 7 New York Giants 1.33
2 Tennessee Titans 1.81 8 Indianapolis Colts 1.32
3 Oakland Raiders 1.60 9 Denver Broncos 1.31
4 Tampa Bay Bucs 1.44 10 New Orleans Saints 1.16
5 Philadelphia Eagles 1.43 11 St. Louis Rams 1.15
6 Miami Dolphins 1.43 12 Minnesota Vikings 1.07
2000: Super Bowl average = 1.68 Playoff average = 1.42

The ultimate playoff teams for this year will be the ones with the best balance. After week number 17 the computer power ratings are:

2001
1 St. Louis Rams 1.84 17 Seattle Seahawks 0.93
2 Chicago Bears 1.67 18 New York Giants 0.92
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 1.66 19 Cleveland Browns 0.89
4 Philadelphia Eagles 1.65 20 Tennessee Titans 0.87
5 Green Bay Packers 1.47 21 Arizona Cardinals 0.86
6 San Francisco 49ers 1.45 22 Indianapolis Colts 0.85
7 New England Patriots 1.36 23 Washington Redskins 0.84
8 Oakland Raiders 1.22 24 New Orleans Saints 0.81
9 Miami Dolphins 1.19 25 Minnesota Vikings 0.77
10 Tampa Bay Bucs 1.16 26 Atlanta Falcons 0.77
11 Batimore Ravens 1.08 27 Cincinnati Bengals 0.73
12 New York Jets 1.04 28 Dallas Cowboys 0.73
13 San Diego Chargers 1.03 29 Detroit Lions 0.64
14 Jacksonville Jaguars 1.03 30 Buffalo Bills 0.63
15 Denver Broncos 1.00 31 Carolina Panthers 0.62
16 Kansas City Chiefs 0.93


Rams Finish Season on Top

The Rams lead the league on our BALANCE of POWER stat earning 1.84 points on offense for each defensive point allowed. The Bears rank 2nd (1.67-to-1) and the Steelers 3rd (1.66).

Based on this one stat, if the Super Bowl were played today, and if the two teams played according to form, the Rams would be favored over Steelers by 4.

This copy is being written before the Monday night game. The Ravens are fighting for a playoff spot. The Vikes can't brag on their D. Randy Moss is a question mark. If the teams play to statistical form the Ravens will earn their first round shot and face the Dolphins on Sunday.

If the Ravens win tonight, the 12 playoff teams will match our top 12 in Power Ratings. The surprise teams (Bears and Patriots) are both divisional champs. They will be interesting to watch in the playoffs.

How did they get here? The Bears are the league's most improved team adding 17 points per game to the scoring differential (winning margin). They did it on three stats: first, rush defense improved 6.2 points. Opponents couldin't run on'em. Second, almost 5 points stronger on pass D, opponents couldn't throw the ball in. And finally, the final four-point improvement came from D INTs and fumble recoveries.

If you want to build a winning team, the 2001 Bears are a great example.

The Pats were up on QB Brady's eye and arm adding 4.3 points with imnproved passing efficiency and were 4.8 points stronger on rush D. These two stats fully account for their 10-point improvement.

The weakest teams have not been competitive this year. Earning only six-tenths of one point for each D point allowed, the Lions, Bills and Panthers will be high in the draft. But languishing in the cellar cost Carolina Coach Seifert his job.

Bud Goode (more charts below)

Power Rating Bar Charts: 2001, 2000 and Change 2000 to 2001


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