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2014 Predict Reports

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2013 Predict Reports
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2005

2005 Predict Reports


2004

2004 Predict Reports

2006 Playoffs

2006 PLAYOFFS

Super Bowl XLI:


Conference Championships:


Divisional Playoffs:


Wildcard Weekend:


2005 Playoffs

2005 PLAYOFFS

Super Bowl: Pittsburgh vs Seattle


Conference Championships:

Steelers-Broncos / Panthers-Seahawks

Wildcard: Redskins at Bucs     postgame comments

Wildcard: Jags at Patriots

Wildcard: Panthers at Giants

Wildcard: Steelers at Bengals

2004 Playoffs

Super Bowl Features: Eagles vs Patriots

  1. Winning Margins
  2. Interceptions
  3. Points Scored / Points Allowed
  4. Total Rushing Plays
  5. Plays per First Down
  6. QB Sacks

Post Game Analysis-- Super Bowl
There are many ways to win a football game and teams win for different reasons. This graphic tool shows you which stats contributed most points to the win. In the Super Bowl, the stats contributing most points to the Pats' win were INTs and Total Rushing Plays.

...[more]          

PreGame Matchups-- for Super Bowl
Which stats are likely to contribute the most points to the win? ...

...[more]          

Predict Report, Season 2004-- for week 21
Full regular season projection matrix, plus the big game: Super Bowl.

...[more]          

Conference Championships: Falcons at Eagles

Conference Championships: Patriots at Steelers

Post Game Analysis-- Conference Championships
There are many ways to win a football game and teams win for different reasons. This graphic tool shows you which stats contributed most points to the win. In the Conference Championships, the stat contributing most points to the Eagles' win was Yards per Pass Attempt. In the Pats' win it was INTs.

...[more]          


Divisional Playoffs: Jets at Steelers

Divisional Playoffs: Rams at Falcons

Divisional Playoffs: Vikings at Eagles

Divisional Playoffs: Colts at Patriots


Wildcard: Rams at Seahawks

Wildcard: Jets at Chargers

Wildcard: Broncos at Colts



2003

2003 Predict Reports

2003 Playoffs

Super Bowl: The Money $tat
The Super Bowl winner, in all probability, will out perform the loser on Bud's Killer Stat II, Points per Pass Attempt. Super Bowl winner last year was 0.4 Points per Pass greater on offense than their defense allowd, loser only 0.25...

...[more]          

Super Bowl: Clock Control
What impact will clock control have on the Super Bowl? ...

...[more]          

Super Bowl: Key Killer Stat Matchup
Statistically Carolina Panthers are in this Super Bowl all the way. On our Killer Stat, Yards per Pass Attempt, with the Panthers' offense facing the Patriots' pass D, the Pats have a 4-point edge (based on 20-week averages)...

...[more]          

Super Bowl: Panthers' Offense vs Patriots' Defense
When the Panthers' offense meets the Patriots's defense on Super Bowl Sunday, the stat with the biggest points advantage is Yards per Play. With the Patriots on defense (their strong suit), they have an advantage over the Panthers' offense...

...[more]          

Super Bowl: Panthers' Defense vs Patriots' Offense
In the previous feature we discussed the Patriots' defensive advantage on Yards per Play. With the Panthers on defense the shoe is on the other foot. They have the advantage...

...[more]          

Super Bowl: Panthers vs Patriots - Panther Attack
The Super Bowl bound Carolina Panthers improved their scoring differential (winning margin) by 4 points per game this season. The question is, which stats contributed most?...

...[more]          

Super Bowl: Cartoon - Super Bowl Stats and Prediction
So how about a picture of the Super Bowl stats? The Patriots vs Panthers matchup is pictured in this cartoon feature. The better the player looks, the strong the team...

...[more]          

AFC Championship: Colts at Patriots
Red-hot QB Manning pilots his Colt teammates into a good ol' fashioned New England norwester this Sunday. Patriots' Coach Belichick's pass D can be tougher on QBs than sub-zero temps or Mt. Washington winds...

...[more]          

NFC Championship: Panthers at Eagles
In last week's Green Bay Packer game Philadelphia Eagle's QB Donovan McNabb was sacked 8 times more than potatoes. Yet the Eagles won the game by 3...

...[more]          

Divisional: Panthers at Rams
Carolina Coach John Fox took the Panthers from a 1-15 record to 11-5 in two seasons. For a second year head coach it's a fair to middlin' country boy effort. The key rushing stats got him there...

...[more]          

Divisional: Titans at Patriots
The Tennessee Titans are suffering with an untimely case of the walking wounded. QB Steve McNair is ankle bit and Rb Eddie George is feeling' puny. With their passing efficiency hurting the Titans will have to get lucky to defeat Coach of the Year Bill Belichick...

...[more]          

Divisional: Colts at Chiefs
The ball will be in the air when the Colts visit the Chiefs on Sunday. One of the key stats separating winner from loser will be Bud Goode's Killer Stat, yards per pass attempt. A second key stat is pass interceptions...

...[more]          

Divisional: Packers at Eagles
A key stat separating winner from loser in the Green Bay Packer's playoff game in Philadelphia is yards per pass attempt. It is Bud Goode's Killer Stat. QB Brett Favre's Packers earn 6.54 yards per attempt (6th) while the Eagle's and QB McNabb average 5.87 (18th)...

...[more]          


Wildcard: Cowboys at Panthers
Coach Bill Parcell's Dallas Cowboys built a strong pass D in his first season in Texas. One of the key 2003 passing efficiency stats is passing first downs allowed. Coach Parcell's D team only allows opponents to move the sticks on 26.8% of their pass attempts...

...[more]          

Wildcard: Titans at Ravens
The Ravens have a hi-lo stat profile, league's toughest on rushing yards percent (54%) but weakest on first downs passing (7.6 per game, league lo). With the Ravens on offense and Coach Jeff Fisher's Titans on D...

...[more]          

Wildcard: Seahawks at Packers
Passing efficiency stats are the most important "group" of stats separating winners from losers. It comes as no surprise that Green Bay Packer QB Brett Favre has the statistical advantages over Seahawk's QB Matt Hasselbeck in next Sunday's war...

...[more]          

Wildcard: Broncos at Colts
The electronic hardware uses season averages to make scoring projections based on 17 games. But teams run hot and cold. As we read below there is a great deal of variation around each stat's average. During the season the Bronco QBs threw for a 5.9 yards per toss...

...[more]          


Killer Stat II's Link to Winning (Helmet charts: Predict W-L)
If you want to predict divisional leaders, points per pass attempt does the best job. Divisional winners, by definition, always make the playoffs. And once in the playoffs, any team can reach the Super Bowl. The chart below pictures the strong correlation between Points per Pass and each team's winning margin...

...[more]          

2002

Super Bowl Game Comments

Super Bowl Comments: Bucs vs Raiders
Odds are the stat separating winner from loser in Sunday's Super Bowl will be Points per Pass. Points per Pass is a stat that measures more than passing efficiency...

...[more]          

Super Bowl: Star Charts [updated]
The star charts summarize the key stats in any game. There are three charts: the first shows the Bucs on Offense and the Raiders on D; the second shows the Bucs on D and the Raiders on Offense; and the third shows the difference between offense and defense for both teams...

...[more]          

Super Bowl: Graphic Matchups: Offense vs Defense
Which independent stats will contribute the most points to the winner? If the two teams play to form the Graphic Matchups pit offense vs defense and compute the "Points Advantage" for each pair of stats. Which of your favorite players will contribute the most points to a Super Bowl victory?

Sunday: TB vs OAK

Divisional Playoff Game Comments

Championship Game Comments: Titans vs Raiders
When the Titans meet the Raiders in Oakland we'll see a classic battle between teams which put a different emphasis on the running game. They both play ball-control football. Titans use a strong rushing attack. Raiders throw short, make first downs and move the sticks...

...[more]          

Championship Game Comments: Bucs vs Eagles
Points per Pass is a key stat describing how pro football games are played. And WON. The stat is not a measure of the passing game. It is a measure of the BALANCE between pass and run. It is likely it will have an impact on the NFC Championship game Sunday matching the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Bucs...

...[more]          

Playoff Game Comments: Jets vs Raiders
The Killer Stat, yards per pass attempt, looms large in the Jets-Raiders game. On offense both teams have a significant points advantage. The Jets with QB Chad Pennington earned 6.75 and face an Oakland D that allowed 5.71 yards per toss. Points advantage, 2.8 to Jets. Raiders' QB Rich Gannon earned 6.8 and Jets' D allowed 6.02. Points advantage, 4 to Raiders...

...[more]          

Playoff Game Comments: 49ers vs Bucs
This week the 49ers transport their west coast offense from San Francisco Bay to Tampa Bay where they face the league-leading Bucaneer pass D. The Bucs don't just sit quietly atop the pass defense stats, they've distanced themselves from the pack...

...[more]          

Playoff Game Comments: Falcons vs Eagles
The Eagles and Falcons face off this weekend much like a pair of birds of prey in flight. It is likely when the ball is in the air their sharp talons will be clutching for the pigskin. Passing efficiency stats will be a determining factor in winning Saturday's aerial dog fight...

...[more]          

Playoff Game Comments: Steelers vs Titans
When the Pittsburgh Steelers march into Nashville to take on the Titans we'll see an all-out ground war. Both teams like to run the ball: Steelers with 32.0 rushing plays per game rank 3rd in the league, Titans with 31.9 rank 4th...

...[more]          

Wildcard Playoff Game Comments

Playoff Game Comments: Giants vs 49ers
The key stat in the playoff game matching the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers is Goode's Killer Stat, yards per pass attempt. Giants QB Kerry Collins, built like a tough linebacker at 6' 5" and 245 pounds, is a horse...

...[more]          

Playoff Game Comments: Browns vs Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steeler defense is alive and well. When names like Jack Ham are mentioned the stadium vibrates. The new Steel Curtain has some rusty spots but it will easily handle the Cleveland Brown's offense on Sunday. In the two games played this season, the Steelers defeated the Browns in both contests by only 3 points...

...[more]          

Playoff Game Comments: Falcons vs Packers
Atlanta has been on our list of playoff contenders most of the season. A bit of a surprise team, Falcons won two games more than that last year and may be on the road to the Super Bowl...

...[more]          

Playoff Game Comments: Colts vs Jets
The Jets and the Colts go to war in Saturday's first wildcard game in New Jersey. The electronic hardware sees it as a close game. Passing efficiency stats will likely separate winner from loser...

...[more]          

2002 Predict Reports


2001

Final 2001 Power Ratings: Top 12 teams on Power take all 12 playoff spots.
Rams keep No. 1 spot...

...[more]          

Playoff Killer Stat: Through the Super Bowl, in 11 of 13 playoff games winners outperformed losers on KILLER STAT--Yards per Pass Attempt Differential...

...[more]          

Final 2001 Killer Stat: Rams finish on top on KILLER STAT--Yards per Pass Attempt Differential. It's this year's most important stat separating winners from losers...

...[more]          


Does Killer Stat performance equate with winning?
See the Conference Charts: AFC | NFC

Scoring Projections: Final 2001 Regular Season Matrix
Final run of weekly scoring projections. Every game of the season recalulated each week...

...[more]          

Super Bowl Scoring Projections - Super Bowl: Scoring projections for this week's Super Bowl game. Scroll to the bottom to see the matchup projections...

...[more]          

2001 Super Bowl / Playoff Features

Star Charts: Another look at Super Bowl Matchups
How big an upset was the Patriot's victory over the Rams? The BudGoodeSports Star Charts indicate Rams' weak spot. Pats capitalize...

...[more]          

Super Bowl POST Game: What stats contributed most to Rams loss in Super Bowl? Give Aways, with an advantage to Pats of almost 13 points...

...[more]          

Ravens Out: Ravens are not the same powerhouse team we saw last year. What stats contributed most to their decline this season?...

...[more]          

Wildcard Upset: Ravens upset Dolphins. Were there any clues Ravens would dominate? Miami rush D faltered over last weeks of regular season...

...[more]          

Super Bowl Simulation Results: Big edge to NFC teams in Super Bowl. AFC teams are favored in only 4 of 36 possible matchups. See the results table and view key stat points advantage matchups for all possible playoff games and Super Bowl matchups...

...[more]          

PAST FEATURES

Testeverde-Led Jets Not Airworthy
[2003 week 1] Bud's Killer Stat, Yards per Pass Attempt, pictured in the stat graphic below, a key stat in last night's NFL kickoff game matching the Jets and Redskins, shows the NY Jets QB Vinny Testeverde earned only 4+ yards per toss...

...[more]          

Predict Your Team's Playoff Chances



This new season fans can predict the divisional playoff chances for all teams (and thier favorite team) using our new Killer Stat II, Points per Pass. Watch this feature weekly and early in the season you can "guesstimate" your team's playoff chances...

...[more]          

2003 vs 2002 Schedules. Who Benefits?
Schedules can make or break a season. For example, lots of preseason pundits are picking the Chiefs to make the playoffs--even win the tough AFC West division. Their 2003 schedule helps...

...[more]          

Press Release: Pennington Loss Costly to Jets
[23 Aug 2003] Loss of QB Pennington for a dozen games of the coming season may cost the the Jets 8 points per game on offense...

...[more]          

Games Won and Winning Margin
The most important stat in pro football is "Games Won." Our job is to find the important stats which separate winners from losers...

...[more]          




2002 StatGraphic Feature: Yards per Pass vs Games Won
Does Killer Stat performance equate with winning?
The New York Giants lead the NFL on Goode's Killer Stat, yards per pass, earning 1.6 yards per toss more on offense than their D allows. On this strong performance featuring QB Kerry Collins the Giants won 10 games...
[update: NFC and AFC charts]

...[more]          

2002: Yards per Play, Killer Stat's Kissin' Cousin
The most important stat separating winners from losers last season was Yards per Pass Attempt, our Killer Stat. If you take the difference in scoring and compare it to the difference in yards per toss, you find a strong relationship. But each year other key stats compete for the top spot. At the 14 week mark of the 2002 season, Yards per Play was tied with Yards per Pass Attempt as the most important stat...

...[more]          

2002: Projecting Winners with Points per Pass Attempt
This is a new stat graphic feature using the run/pass balance to project each team's Won/Lost record. In the 2001 season this stat correlated 96% with the winning margin. It is a key stat...

...[more]          

Bud Goode / Bill Sanders