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Stat of the Week

Week 10 - Yards per Pass Attempt

The STAT OF THE WEEK feature highlights the one stat contributing most points to the victory.

The stat of the week looks at the Indianapolis Colts-Houston Texans game and picks up on our first Killer Stat, Yards per Pass Attempt (QB Sacks counted as unsuccessful attempts).

Emphasis is put on the QB Sack part of this stat. Each stat contributes some point value to both offense and defense. The sack year in and year out contributes 3+ points to the winning margin. That is a lotta' points and suggests the SACK is a stat that deserves more attention.

The sack is a key part of our Yards per Pass Attempt Killer Stat. Why so much emphasis on the SACK? Because this season our Killer stat once again is proving itself as the most important stat separating winners from losers accounting for 75% of the average team's winning margin.

In the stat graphic below the Texans rank last in the league on Yards per Pass. The Colts rank 2nd earning 7.69 YPA. The Texans earn only 3.44. Losing 304 yards on 46 QB sacks this yardage must be deducted from total passing yards. It is a big cost leaving the Texans 18 PPG behind the leader. They are not competitive.

Yards per Pass Att

Percentile Chart

100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest
Lines: Playoff Avg=79 SuperBowl Avg=75

Win Mrg Points Change

Winning Margin Points Change
Sorted by Points Change, 2007 to 2008

Rank	Team	Pctl	Stat Value	Points behind Leader	Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2007	Games Won
1	N O	100	7.87	0.00	5.10	5
2	S D	99	7.83	0.17	6.32	4
3	ARI	92	7.57	1.10	3.42	7
4	DEN	86	7.35	1.90	2.86	6
5	MIA	79	7.09	2.83	7.15	6
6	ATL	78	7.05	2.98	5.66	6
7	HOU	75	6.93	3.39	0.45	3
8	DAL	68	6.68	4.32	-2.55	6
9	PHI	66	6.61	4.54	2.21	5
10	BUF	63	6.52	4.89	3.32	5
11	G B	62	6.45	5.12	-2.90	5
12	CAR	61	6.42	5.22	4.81	8
13	IND	60	6.38	5.39	-2.33	6
14	NYG	58	6.30	5.66	2.84	9
15	NYJ	55	6.22	5.96	3.18	7
16	TEN	53	6.14	6.24	1.13	10
17	T B	52	6.08	6.46	-1.09	7
18	S F	51	6.07	6.48	7.16	3
19	PIT	47	5.91	7.07	-1.33	7
20	CHI	47	5.91	7.08	1.49	5
21	N E	46	5.87	7.22	-6.93	6
22	WAS	46	5.86	7.25	-1.41	6
23	BAL	44	5.79	7.49	2.53	6
24	MIN	41	5.70	7.84	-0.56	5
25	JAX	41	5.68	7.90	-3.52	4
26	CLE	36	5.52	8.47	-3.91	4
27	DET	32	5.36	9.07	-2.54	0
28	STL	26	5.13	9.86	-0.23	2
29	K C	20	4.91	10.67	-0.85	1
30	SEA	13	4.65	11.61	-6.06	2
31	OAK	9	4.49	12.19	-3.09	2
32	CIN	0	4.17	13.33	-9.38	1

2008 Season, YTD through Week 11

In season 2007 Texans ranked 5th on Yards per Pass Att at 6.81.
In season 2008 they ranked 7th at 6.93, up 0.4 points per game on this one stat.
From 2007 to 2008 Texans declined by 4.8 points per game on Winning Margin.

A bit more pass blocking, please.
Another look at the Killer Stat, Yards per Attempt, is seen in the YEARLY stat graphics below.

Yards per Pass Att with Winning Margin
Yearly 2001 to 2005
Indianapolis Colts

Yards per Pass Att with Winning Margin
Yearly 2001 to 2005
Houston Texans

The close correlation between Yards per toss and the Winning Margin is clearly seen. Years in which the Texans improved on YPA their scoring differential improved. This year the steep decline points to a season W/L record of 2-14.

Yards per Pass Att
Indianapolis Colts
2007 Week 6 through 2008 Week 11

Yards per Pass Att
Houston Texans
2007 Week 6 through 2008 Week 11

The weekly stat graphic presents another picture of the Texans' performance. The sudden drop off on Yards per Pass Attempt is seen in the (dark blue) moving average line. Not one game stronger than average and only one win in the first ten games. Their Killer Stat performance this season cost them 11.75 winning margin PPG.
The sack is killing QB Carr's passing efficiency game.
Bud Goode, budgoode@ix.netcom.com
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