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NFC: Most UP

Through Week 13 this stat contributed 10.2 points
to this season's 13.4-point change UP:

Tampa Bay Bucs

Points per Pass Att Diff with Winning Margin
Yearly 2000 to 2007

Tampa Bay Bucs

In season 2006 Bucs ranked 31st on Points per Pass Att Diff at -0.32.
In season 2007 they ranked 8th at 0.22, up 10.15 points per game on this one stat.
From 2006 to 2007 Bucs improved by 13.4 points per game on Winning Margin.

Week 13

NFC MOST UP

Get ready for this: Each week this space monitors 200 NFL stats. And the Tampa Bay Bucs are the most improved team on the scoring differential adding 13.4 points per game to their winning margin. And how about this -- the Bucs are in the top five teams on 103 of these stats.

Snake bit and gator et' for the past few years the Bucs have made a U-Turn with Coach Jon Gruden and General Manager Bruce Allen making the calls. This year's record is phenom: Thirty of these stats are the league's most improved and 25 more show the Bucs are 2nd most up. Hey, Tampa fans, how about this neat performance.

The stat contributing most points to this explosive move is Yards per Pass Attempt, our most important independent Killer Stat where they added 9.6 points to their winning margin.

The stat graphic above pictures this growth on both offense and defense where the Bucs moved from 31st to 8th on Points per Pass adding 10.2 points to their wining margin. Note the close correlation between up-down moves for both stats. When points per pass moves up or down the scoring differential moves in concert.

With QB Garcia boosting the Bucs' passing efficiency as measured by yards per pass attempt (our most important independent measure of pass efficiency) the Bucs moved from 31st to 8th now earning 6.7 yards per toss.

This doesn't quite match this week's opponent. Houston Texans' 7+ yards per toss is a winning stat. But the Texans' D is weak allowing 6.4 yards.

QB Garcia should do well. The electronic hardware favors the Bucs by 4. (see the full season Scoring Projection and scroll down to Tampa Bay.)

With QB Garcia now on board the Bucs are certain to make the playoffs. Hey, ownership: will a playoff spot add 50 mil to the franchise value?

Bud Goode

NFC: Most DOWN

Through Week 13 this stat contributed -7.5 points
to this season's -13.7-point change DOWN.

Chicago Bears

Yards Lost Passing with Winning Margin
Yearly 2000 to 2007

Chicago Bears

In season 2006 Bears ranked 8th on Yards Lost Passing at 10.31.
In season 2007 they ranked 31st at 24.92, down 7.45 points per game on this one stat.
From 2006 to 2007 Bears declined by 13.7 points per game on Winning Margin.

Week 13
NFC MOST DOWN
Chicago Bears are maintaining their stranglehold on the Most Down team on the scoring differential and are weaker by 13.7 points per game relative to last season.
The stat contributing most to this uncomfortable position on the scoring ladder is QB Sack Yards. Last week facing a tough New York Giant pass rush it was the leading statistical reason why the Bears lost the game (52 yards on QB sacks for the Bears and only 14 for the Giants).
This QB sack and sack yardage stat is a weekly subject in this space. The sack breaks a drive, leads to a punt and a punt is a giveup.
Last Sunday it cost the Bears 18.5 points in their losing margin (and they lost by only 5). The stat graphic below pictures the Bears tender spot.

Yards Lost Passing
Chicago Bears
2007 Week 6 through 2008 Week 11

The sack yardage pictured above shows that over the last 5 games the Bears have been much weaker than average. And last Sunday was a cruel day as the New York Giants' D was posted on the Bears' QB Grossman heavier than a 24-sheet billboard.
A QB rating of 61, 9.3 points per game behind the leader, ranking 31st and weaker this year vs 2006 by -7.45 points per game -- is a reflection of an inefficient passing game.
This data suggests a change. It'll happen.
Bud Goode

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