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Stat of the Week

Week 16--
The STAT OF THE WEEK feature highlights the one stat contributing most points to the victory.

Chicago Bears--Green Bay Packers

Rushes per Pass Att (3.2 vs 0.7) contributed 24 points to the 28-point win.

The Monsters of the Midway came back to life in week 16 when the Chicago Bears' running game crunched and crushed the Green Bay Packers and demolished QB Brett Favre's typically elegant passing attack.

Each stat contributes some point value to both offense and defense. In the case of the Run/Pass balance, the Bears overwhelmed the Pack running on 3 plays and passing on less than 1.

Fans, please remember this point value: If a team moves from a run-pass ratio of 1-to-1 to 2-to-1 the improvement adds 12 points per game to the scoring differential.

This huge difference in the Bears-Packers game contributed 24 points to the Bears' 28-point victory.

QB Favre tried to keep up with his elegant aerial attack. It didn't happen. Intercepted twice the Pack gave back almost 100 yards on his inefficient effort (or 65% of his passing yards as they netted only 150).

In the stat graphic below the Bears' outstanding effort can't be missed. Pictured in the chart at the far right, the vertical bar shows the huge performance difference between the Bears and the Pack.

The graphic also pictures the old saw: Every season almost all teams have their best effort and weakest effort in back-to-back weeks.

It worked for the Bears. It would have been nice to see them in the playoffs.

Bud Goode

Rushes per Pass Att

Chicago Bears

2007 Week 6 through 2008 Week 11

Rushes per Pass Att

Green Bay Packers

2007 Week 6 through 2008 Week 11

Rushes per Pass Att

Percentile Chart
100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest
Lines: Playoff Avg=71 SuperBowl Avg=49
Win Mrg Points Change
Winning Margin Points Change
Sorted by Points Change, 2007 to 2008

Rank Team Pctl Stat
Value Points
behind
Leader Win Mrg
Pts Chg
vs 2007 Games
Won
1 BAL 100 1.33 0.00 8.23 6
2 ATL 86 1.23 1.58 8.32 6
3 TEN 75 1.14 2.88 -0.42 10
4 CAR 70 1.11 3.42 3.36 8
5 NYG 66 1.08 3.94 3.33 9
6 OAK 58 1.01 4.89 -1.75 2
7 MIN 57 1.01 4.91 -2.08 5
8 WAS 51 0.97 5.62 0.30 6
9 N E 49 0.95 5.87 2.85 6
10 PIT 43 0.91 6.56 -3.88 7
11 BUF 43 0.90 6.61 -1.60 5
12 MIA 41 0.89 6.76 3.03 6
13 JAX 41 0.89 6.83 -3.48 4
14 SEA 40 0.88 6.94 2.41 2
15 NYJ 39 0.88 7.02 0.12 7
16 CHI 36 0.86 7.33 1.80 5
17 G B 35 0.85 7.54 2.72 5
18 CLE 32 0.83 7.80 0.32 4
19 S F 32 0.83 7.85 2.02 3
20 S D 32 0.82 7.86 -3.21 4
21 DAL 30 0.81 8.08 0.34 6
22 STL 24 0.76 8.81 0.94 2
23 T B 21 0.74 9.13 -2.70 7
24 HOU 19 0.73 9.33 -0.90 3
25 K C 17 0.71 9.60 0.52 1
26 CIN 16 0.71 9.72 -0.28 1
27 DEN 9 0.65 10.52 -2.80 6
28 ARI 9 0.65 10.54 -0.47 7
29 DET 7 0.64 10.72 1.37 0
30 N O 6 0.63 10.89 0.46 5
31 PHI 3 0.61 11.19 -1.85 5
32 IND 0 0.59 11.53 -3.44 6
2008 Season, YTD through Week 11

In season 2007 Bears ranked 20th on Rushes per Pass Att at 0.74.
In season 2008 they ranked 16th at 0.86, up 1.9 points per game on this one stat.
From 2007 to 2008 Bears improved by 1.8 points per game on Winning Margin.

Indianapolis Colts--Houston Texans

First Downs Total (35 vs 18) contributed 17.3 points to the 23-point win.

The Indianapolis Colts contributed to the Stat of the Week again. In week 16 the Colts ran and threw the ball with impunity racking up 35 first downs (12 rushing, 21 in the air and 2 by penalty). This performance facing the modest rush and pass D mounted by the Texans contributed 24 points to the Colts' 28-point win.
In the stat graphic below the chart shows the Colts had their season's best performance against the Texans. By comparison, Houston was just below league average (light blue line).
The interesting stat here is the 12 first downs rushing. League leaders typically finish the season near 9 or 10 rushing first downs. They generally contribute 2 points each to the scoring differential.
In a statistical sense the passing first down is not nearly as important, contributing less. The journalistic reason why is, the first down passing is often given up late in the game with losing teams given an open middle of the field. Let's not stop the clock. No sideline passes allowed.
So they earn more yardage. But in the end, lose the game.
As for the Colts running game, it will be interesting to see them work in the postseason. Will they perform just as well against the New England Patriots rush D? Or the Steelers?
Bud Goode

First Downs Total
Indianapolis Colts
2007 Week 6 through 2008 Week 11

First Downs Total
Houston Texans
2007 Week 6 through 2008 Week 11

First Downs Total

Percentile Chart
100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest
Lines: Playoff Avg=78 SuperBowl Avg=73
Win Mrg Points Change
Winning Margin Points Change
Sorted by Points Change, 2007 to 2008

Rank Team Pctl Stat
Value Points
behind
Leader Win Mrg
Pts Chg
vs 2007 Games
Won
1 ARI 100 22.80 0.00 4.69 7
2 NYG 94 22.20 0.79 2.82 9
3 N O 87 21.50 1.72 -0.17 5
4 HOU 86 21.40 1.85 3.91 3
5 DEN 86 21.40 1.85 3.09 6
6 N E 85 21.30 1.98 -4.31 6
7 BAL 73 20.20 3.43 2.66 6
8 JAX 71 20.00 3.70 -0.66 4
9 IND 70 19.90 3.83 -3.18 6
10 NYJ 69 19.80 3.96 2.54 7
11 T B 68 19.70 4.09 2.82 7
12 ATL 68 19.70 4.09 5.54 6
13 PHI 68 19.70 4.09 -0.64 5
14 MIA 67 19.60 4.22 2.52 6
15 WAS 60 18.90 5.15 -0.38 6
16 DAL 59 18.80 5.28 -1.75 6
17 MIN 52 18.10 6.20 -0.36 5
18 S D 50 17.90 6.47 0.69 4
19 G B 49 17.80 6.60 -1.83 5
20 PIT 48 17.70 6.73 -1.22 7
21 S F 47 17.60 6.86 5.25 3
22 TEN 45 17.40 7.13 -2.28 10
23 BUF 42 17.10 7.52 2.11 5
24 CHI 39 16.80 7.92 0.23 5
25 CAR 36 16.50 8.32 0.74 8
26 K C 33 16.20 8.71 0.35 1
27 CLE 32 16.10 8.84 -4.74 4
28 CIN 30 15.90 9.11 -5.41 1
29 SEA 29 15.80 9.24 -5.79 2
30 DET 22 15.20 10.03 -4.93 0
31 STL 9 13.90 11.75 -4.83 2
32 OAK 0 13.00 12.94 -4.87 2
2008 Season, YTD through Week 11

In season 2007 Colts ranked 2nd on First Downs Total at 22.31.
In season 2008 they ranked 9th at 19.90, down 3.2 points per game on this one stat.
From 2007 to 2008 Colts declined by 11.8 points per game on Winning Margin.