Predict Report - Weighted
Bud Goode Sports Computer, Copyright 2015, All Rights Reserved.
DATA YR 2015 PRED. WEEK 4 PRIOR YR 2014 SCHED YR 2015
WEIGHT = 0.250
Report 3
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
ATLANTA
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 PHI 2 2 26 24
2 NYG 1 4 24 20
3 DAL -1 11 39 28
4 HOU 5
5 WAS 7
6 N O 6
7 TEN 1
8 T B 15
9 S F 12
11 IND 9
12 MIN 4
13 T B 11
14 CAR -5
15 JAC 10
16 CAR 1
17 N O 11
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
15 1 0 0.938
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
12 4 0.750
PRE = PREDICTED
WINNING
MARGIN
ACT = ACTUAL
WINNING
MARGIN
OPP = OPPONENT
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
INDIANAPOLIS
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 BUF -16 -13 14 27
2 NYJ -6 -13 7 20
3 TEN -5 2 35 33
4 JAC 7
5 HOU -5
6 N E -13
7 N O 3
8 CAR -11
9 DEN -9
11 ATL -9
12 T B 9
13 PIT -12
14 JAC 3
15 HOU -1
16 MIA -1
17 TEN -1
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
5 11 0 0.313
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
6 10 0.375
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
BUFFALO
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 IND 16 13 27 14
2 N E 2 -8 32 40
3 MIA 15 27 41 14
4 NYG 11
5 TEN 9
6 CIN 4
7 JAC 19
9 MIA 18
10 NYJ 5
11 N E -2
12 K C 10
13 HOU 14
14 PHI 6
15 WAS 10
16 DAL 11
17 NYJ 10
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
14 2 0 0.875
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
14 2 0.875
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
CHICAGO
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 G B -20 -8 23 31
2 ARI -32 -25 23 48
3 SEA -17 -26 0 26
4 OAK -9
5 K C -13
6 DET -10
8 MIN -13
9 S D -11
10 STL -11
11 DEN -17
12 G B -24
13 S F 1
14 WAS -8
15 MIN -17
16 T B -5
17 DET -5
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
1 15 0 0.063
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
2 14 0.125
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
CINCINNATI
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 OAK 10 20 33 13
2 S D 14 5 24 19
3 BAL 9 4 28 24
4 K C 12
5 SEA 8
6 BUF -4
8 PIT 1
9 CLE 15
10 HOU 12
11 ARI -13
12 STL 15
13 CLE 11
14 PIT 6
15 S F 17
16 DEN -1
17 BAL 13
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
13 3 0 0.813
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
13 3 0.813
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
BALTIMORE
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 DEN -9 -6 13 19
2 OAK -1 -4 33 37
3 CIN -9 -4 24 28
4 PIT -9
5 CLE 5
6 S F 8
7 ARI -23
8 S D 4
10 JAC 11
11 STL 5
12 CLE 1
13 MIA 2
14 SEA -2
15 K C 3
16 PIT -5
17 CIN -13
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
8 8 0 0.500
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
7 9 0.438
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
DALLAS
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 NYG 3 1 27 26
2 PHI -1 10 20 10
3 ATL 1 -11 28 39
4 N O 6
5 N E -6
7 NYG -1
8 SEA 2
9 PHI 2
10 T B 11
11 MIA 6
12 CAR -1
13 WAS 2
14 G B -9
15 NYJ 2
16 BUF -11
17 WAS 8
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
10 6 0 0.625
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
10 6 0.625
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
DENVER
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 BAL 9 6 19 13
2 K C 7 7 31 24
3 DET 10 12 24 12
4 MIN 7
5 OAK 8
6 CLE 9
8 G B -1
9 IND 9
10 K C 10
11 CHI 17
12 N E -1
13 S D 8
14 OAK 12
15 PIT -2
16 CIN 1
17 S D 13
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
13 3 0 0.813
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
13 3 0.813
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
DETROIT
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 S D -2 -5 28 33
2 MIN -8 -10 16 26
3 DEN -10 -12 12 24
4 SEA -9
5 ARI -23
6 CHI 10
7 MIN -4
8 K C -5
10 G B -16
11 OAK 1
12 PHI -5
13 G B -11
14 STL -4
15 N O -3
16 S F 9
17 CHI 5
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
4 12 0 0.250
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
2 14 0.125
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
GREEN BAY
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 CHI 20 8 31 23
2 SEA 7 10 27 17
3 K C 11 10 38 28
4 S F 18
5 STL 14
6 S D 14
8 DEN 1
9 CAR 1
10 DET 16
11 MIN 5
12 CHI 24
13 DET 11
14 DAL 9
15 OAK 9
16 ARI -14
17 MIN 10
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
15 1 0 0.938
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
14 2 0.875
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
TENNESSEE
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 T B 9 28 42 14
2 CLE 3 -14 14 28
3 IND 5 -2 33 35
5 BUF -9
6 MIA 7
7 ATL -1
8 HOU -2
9 N O 3
10 CAR -3
11 JAC 7
12 OAK 5
13 JAC 12
14 NYJ -6
15 N E -13
16 HOU 3
17 IND 1
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
8 8 0 0.500
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
8 8 0.500
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
KANSAS CITY
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 HOU -2 7 27 20
2 DEN -7 -7 24 31
3 G B -11 -10 28 38
4 CIN -12
5 CHI 13
6 MIN -5
7 PIT -5
8 DET 5
10 DEN -10
11 S D 1
12 BUF -10
13 OAK -1
14 S D 5
15 BAL -3
16 CLE 6
17 OAK 4
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
7 9 0 0.438
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
5 11 0.313
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
ST. LOUIS
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 SEA -5 3 34 31
2 WAS -3 -14 10 24
3 PIT -8 -6 6 12
4 ARI -25
5 G B -14
7 CLE 2
8 S F 9
9 MIN -7
10 CHI 11
11 BAL -5
12 CIN -15
13 ARI -21
14 DET 4
15 T B 9
16 SEA -9
17 S F 4
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
7 9 0 0.438
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
8 8 0.500
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
MIAMI
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 WAS -5 7 17 10
2 JAC 3 -3 20 23
3 BUF -15 -27 14 41
4 NYJ -8
6 TEN -7
7 HOU -3
8 N E -18
9 BUF -18
10 PHI -10
11 DAL -6
12 NYJ -11
13 BAL -2
14 NYG -4
15 S D -5
16 IND 1
17 N E -13
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
2 14 0 0.125
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
3 13 0.188
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
MINNESOTA
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 S F 11 -17 3 20
2 DET 8 10 26 16
3 S D 7 17 31 14
4 DEN -7
6 K C 5
7 DET 4
8 CHI 13
9 STL 7
10 OAK 2
11 G B -5
12 ATL -4
13 SEA 1
14 ARI -21
15 CHI 17
16 NYG 3
17 G B -10
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
10 6 0 0.625
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
9 7 0.563
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
NEW ENGLAND
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 PIT 6 7 28 21
2 BUF -2 8 40 32
3 JAC 22 34 51 17
5 DAL 6
6 IND 13
7 NYJ 9
8 MIA 18
9 WAS 14
10 NYG 7
11 BUF 2
12 DEN 1
13 PHI 11
14 HOU 8
15 TEN 13
16 NYJ 4
17 MIA 13
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
16 0 0 1.000
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
13 3 0.813
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
NEW ORLEANS
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 ARI -26 -12 19 31
2 T B 7 -7 19 26
3 CAR -12 -5 22 27
4 DAL -6
5 PHI -9
6 ATL -6
7 IND -3
8 NYG -4
9 TEN -3
10 WAS -5
12 HOU -7
13 CAR -8
14 T B 3
15 DET 3
16 JAC 8
17 ATL -11
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
3 13 0 0.188
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
6 10 0.375
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
N.Y. GIANTS
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 DAL -3 -1 26 27
2 ATL -1 -4 20 24
3 WAS 4 11 32 21
4 BUF -11
5 S F 14
6 PHI -3
7 DAL 1
8 N O 4
9 T B 9
10 N E -7
12 WAS 1
13 NYJ 1
14 MIA 4
15 CAR -2
16 MIN -3
17 PHI 2
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
9 7 0 0.563
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
7 9 0.438
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
N.Y. JETS
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 CLE 9 21 31 10
2 IND 6 13 20 7
3 PHI 3 -7 17 24
4 MIA 8
6 WAS 7
7 N E -9
8 OAK 4
9 JAC 15
10 BUF -5
11 HOU 2
12 MIA 11
13 NYG -1
14 TEN 6
15 DAL -2
16 N E -4
17 BUF -10
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
9 7 0 0.563
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
10 6 0.625
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
OAKLAND
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 CIN -10 -20 13 33
2 BAL 1 4 37 33
3 CLE 1 7 27 20
4 CHI 9
5 DEN -8
7 S D -1
8 NYJ -4
9 PIT -10
10 MIN -2
11 DET -1
12 TEN -5
13 K C 1
14 DEN -12
15 G B -9
16 S D 4
17 K C -4
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
5 11 0 0.313
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
11 5 0.688
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
PHILADELPHIA
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 ATL -2 -2 24 26
2 DAL 1 -10 10 20
3 NYJ -3 7 24 17
4 WAS 3
5 N O 9
6 NYG 3
7 CAR -5
9 DAL -2
10 MIA 10
11 T B 15
12 DET 5
13 N E -11
14 BUF -6
15 ARI -15
16 WAS 7
17 NYG -2
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
8 8 0 0.500
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
5 11 0.313
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
PITTSBURGH
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 N E -6 -7 21 28
2 S F 18 25 43 18
3 STL 8 6 12 6
4 BAL 9
5 S D 8
6 ARI -12
7 K C 5
8 CIN -1
9 OAK 10
10 CLE 12
12 SEA 1
13 IND 12
14 CIN -6
15 DEN 2
16 BAL 5
17 CLE 7
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
12 4 0 0.750
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
10 6 0.625
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
ARIZONA
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 N O 26 12 31 19
2 CHI 32 25 48 23
3 S F 32 40 47 7
4 STL 25
5 DET 23
6 PIT 12
7 BAL 23
8 CLE 22
10 SEA 15
11 CIN 13
12 S F 29
13 STL 21
14 MIN 21
15 PHI 15
16 G B 14
17 SEA 20
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
16 0 0 1.000
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
16 0 1.000
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
SAN DIEGO
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 DET 2 5 33 28
2 CIN -14 -5 19 24
3 MIN -7 -17 14 31
4 CLE 2
5 PIT -8
6 G B -14
7 OAK 1
8 BAL -4
9 CHI 11
11 K C -1
12 JAC 4
13 DEN -8
14 K C -5
15 MIA 5
16 OAK -4
17 DEN -13
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
6 10 0 0.375
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
7 9 0.438
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
S. FRANCISCO
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 MIN -11 17 20 3
2 PIT -18 -25 18 43
3 ARI -32 -40 7 47
4 G B -18
5 NYG -14
6 BAL -8
7 SEA -12
8 STL -9
9 ATL -12
11 SEA -16
12 ARI -29
13 CHI -1
14 CLE -9
15 CIN -17
16 DET -9
17 STL -4
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
1 15 0 0.063
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
1 15 0.063
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
SEATTLE
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 STL 5 -3 31 34
2 G B -7 -10 17 27
3 CHI 17 26 26 0
4 DET 9
5 CIN -8
6 CAR -1
7 S F 12
8 DAL -2
10 ARI -15
11 S F 16
12 PIT -1
13 MIN -1
14 BAL 2
15 CLE 10
16 STL 9
17 ARI -20
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
7 9 0 0.438
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
9 7 0.563
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
TAMPA BAY
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 TEN -9 -28 14 42
2 N O -7 7 26 19
3 HOU -11 -10 9 19
4 CAR -14
5 JAC 1
7 WAS -10
8 ATL -15
9 NYG -9
10 DAL -11
11 PHI -15
12 IND -9
13 ATL -11
14 N O -3
15 STL -9
16 CHI 5
17 CAR -19
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
3 13 0 0.188
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
3 13 0.188
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
WASHINGTON
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 MIA 5 -7 10 17
2 STL 3 14 24 10
3 NYG -4 -11 21 32
4 PHI -3
5 ATL -7
6 NYJ -7
7 T B 10
9 N E -14
10 N O 5
11 CAR -10
12 NYG -1
13 DAL -2
14 CHI 8
15 BUF -10
16 PHI -7
17 DAL -8
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
4 12 0 0.250
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
6 10 0.375
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
CAROLINA
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 JAC 14 11 20 9
2 HOU 7 7 24 17
3 N O 12 5 27 22
4 T B 14
6 SEA 1
7 PHI 5
8 IND 11
9 G B -1
10 TEN 3
11 WAS 10
12 DAL 1
13 N O 8
14 ATL 5
15 NYG 2
16 ATL -1
17 T B 19
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
14 2 0 0.875
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
11 5 0.688
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
JACKSONVILLE
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 CAR -14 -11 9 20
2 MIA -3 3 23 20
3 N E -22 -34 17 51
4 IND -7
5 T B -1
6 HOU -8
7 BUF -19
9 NYJ -15
10 BAL -11
11 TEN -7
12 S D -4
13 TEN -12
14 IND -3
15 ATL -10
16 N O -8
17 HOU -12
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
1 15 0 0.063
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
3 13 0.188
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
CLEVELAND
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 NYJ -9 -21 10 31
2 TEN -3 14 28 14
3 OAK -1 -7 20 27
4 S D -2
5 BAL -5
6 DEN -9
7 STL -2
8 ARI -22
9 CIN -15
10 PIT -12
12 BAL -1
13 CIN -11
14 S F 9
15 SEA -10
16 K C -6
17 PIT -7
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
2 14 0 0.125
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
4 12 0.250
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/29/15
HOUSTON
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 K C 2 -7 20 27
2 CAR -7 -7 17 24
3 T B 11 10 19 9
4 ATL -5
5 IND 5
6 JAC 8
7 MIA 3
8 TEN 2
10 CIN -12
11 NYJ -2
12 N O 7
13 BUF -14
14 N E -8
15 IND 1
16 TEN -3
17 JAC 12
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
8 8 0 0.500
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
8 8 0.500
THE MOST LIKELY NFC LEADERS ARE: DALLAS (10- 6), GREEN BAY (14- 2)
ATLANTA (12- 4) AND ARIZONA (16- 0)
THE MOST LIKELY AFC LEADERS ARE: BUFFALO (14- 2), CINCINNATI (13- 3)
TENNESSEE ( 8- 8) AND DENVER (13- 3)
THE MOST LIKELY NFC WILD CARD TEAMS ARE CAROLINA AND SEATTLE
THE MOST LIKELY AFC WILD CARD TEAMS ARE NEW ENGLAND AND OAKLAND
THE NFC CHAMPION SHOULD BE ARIZONA. THE AFC CHAMP BUFFALO.
FAVORED BY 9 POINTS, THE SUPER BOWL CHAMP WILL BE ARIZONA.
OF COURSE ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN A PLAYOFF GAME AND INJURIES
AFTER THIS WEEK CAN KNOCK ANY TEAM OUT OF THE BOX. BUT BASED ON
THE STATS TO DATE ARIZONA WILL BE THE SUPER BOWL WINNER.
* COMPUTER SEASON PREDICTIONS ARE MADE FOR TWO CONDITIONS:
THE THIRD LINE SHOWS THE NUMBER OF GAMES WHERE THE TEAM IS
THE PREDICTED 'FAVORITE'. BY DEFINITION THEN THE LEAGUE'S
STRONGEST TEAM WOULD BE PREDICTED TO WIN THE MOST IF NOT ALL
ITS GAMES.
HOWEVER, WE ALL KNOW THAT FAVORITES ARE UPSET 20 TO 25
PERCENT OF THE TIME. SO THE FIRST LINE IS A BETTER ESTIMATE
OF THE SEASON W-L RECORD. THIS FIRST LINE IS BASED ON WHAT
STATISTICIANS CALL A MONTE CARLO SIMULATION-I.E., THE COMPUTER
PLAYS THROUGH THE NFL SCHEDULE 1000 TIMES AND ESTIMATES THE
NUMBER OF WINS TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION POSSIBLE UPSETS.
TEAMS WITHIN DIVISIONS ARE SORTED BY SIMULATED PERCENTAGES.
IN CASE TWO TEAMS ARE TIED IN THE WON/LOSS COLUMN (THIRD LINE)
OR ARE TIED WHEN PICKING WILD CARD TEAMS, THE BEST TEAM WILL
BE THE SIMULATED WINNER OF THE TWO.
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