Predict Report - Weighted
Bud Goode Sports Computer, Copyright 2016, All Rights Reserved.
DATA YR 2016 PRED. WEEK 4 PRIOR YR 2015 SCHED YR 2016
WEIGHT = 0.250
Report 3
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
ATLANTA
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 T B 7 -7 24 31
2 OAK -3 7 35 28
3 N O 3 13 45 32
4 CAR -1
5 DEN -8
6 SEA -7
7 S D -1
8 G B -1
9 T B 4
10 PHI -15
12 ARI -5
13 K C -3
14 L A 4
15 S F 4
16 CAR -6
17 N O 7
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
6 10 0 0.375
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
4 12 0.250
PRE = PREDICTED
WINNING
MARGIN
ACT = ACTUAL
WINNING
MARGIN
OPP = OPPONENT
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
INDIANAPOLIS
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 DET 1 -4 35 39
2 DEN -11 -14 20 34
3 S D -4 4 26 22
4 JAC 3
5 CHI 7
6 HOU -4
7 TEN -2
8 K C -7
9 G B -9
11 TEN 2
12 PIT -4
13 NYJ -2
14 HOU 1
15 MIN -11
16 OAK -8
17 JAC 7
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
6 10 0 0.375
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
6 10 0.375
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
BUFFALO
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 BAL 6 -6 7 13
2 NYJ 9 -6 31 37
3 ARI -2 15 33 18
4 N E -6
5 L A 8
6 S F 6
7 MIA 4
8 N E -3
9 SEA -3
11 CIN 5
12 JAC 14
13 OAK -1
14 PIT 3
15 CLE 13
16 MIA 8
17 NYJ 5
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
10 6 0 0.625
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
10 6 0.625
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
CHICAGO
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 HOU -8 -9 14 23
2 PHI -19 -15 14 29
3 DAL -12 -14 17 31
4 DET -4
5 IND -7
6 JAC 1
7 G B -13
8 MIN -11
10 T B -5
11 NYG -13
12 TEN -3
13 S F -5
14 DET -9
15 G B -9
16 WAS 3
17 MIN -16
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
2 14 0 0.125
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
2 14 0.125
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
CINCINNATI
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 NYJ -1 1 23 22
2 PIT -8 -8 16 24
3 DEN -9 -12 17 29
4 MIA -1
5 DAL -7
6 N E -14
7 CLE 5
8 WAS 7
10 NYG -9
11 BUF -5
12 BAL -3
13 PHI -14
14 CLE 1
15 PIT -4
16 HOU -5
17 BAL 3
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
5 11 0 0.313
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
7 9 0.438
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
BALTIMORE
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 BUF -6 6 13 7
2 CLE 2 5 25 20
3 JAC 3 2 19 17
4 OAK -4
5 WAS 7
6 NYG -8
7 NYJ -1
9 PIT -4
10 CLE 5
11 DAL -8
12 CIN 3
13 MIA 1
14 N E -14
15 PHI -13
16 PIT -9
17 CIN -3
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
7 9 0 0.438
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
6 10 0.375
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
DALLAS
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 NYG 1 -1 19 20
2 WAS 9 4 27 23
3 CHI 12 14 31 17
4 S F 1
5 CIN 7
6 G B -3
8 PHI -9
9 CLE 6
10 PIT -3
11 BAL 8
12 WAS 13
13 MIN -5
14 NYG -3
15 T B 11
16 DET 7
17 PHI -13
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
9 7 0 0.563
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
10 6 0.625
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
DENVER
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 CAR 5 1 21 20
2 IND 11 14 34 20
3 CIN 9 12 29 17
4 T B 11
5 ATL 8
6 S D 3
7 HOU 10
8 S D 6
9 OAK 3
10 N O 9
12 K C 4
13 JAC 12
14 TEN 7
15 N E 1
16 K C -2
17 OAK 8
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
15 1 0 0.938
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
14 2 0.875
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
DETROIT
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 IND -1 4 39 35
2 TEN 2 -1 15 16
3 G B -7 -7 27 34
4 CHI 4
5 PHI -13
6 L A 6
7 WAS 8
8 HOU -3
9 MIN -9
11 JAC 7
12 MIN -5
13 N O -1
14 CHI 9
15 NYG -8
16 DAL -7
17 G B -3
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
6 10 0 0.375
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
6 10 0.375
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
GREEN BAY
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 JAC 9 4 27 23
2 MIN -3 -3 14 17
3 DET 7 7 34 27
5 NYG 2
6 DAL 3
7 CHI 13
8 ATL 1
9 IND 9
10 TEN 4
11 WAS 9
12 PHI -12
13 HOU 7
14 SEA 1
15 CHI 9
16 MIN 1
17 DET 3
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
14 2 0 0.875
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
12 4 0.750
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
TENNESSEE
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 MIN -6 -9 16 25
2 DET -2 1 16 15
3 OAK -3 -7 10 17
4 HOU -3
5 MIA -3
6 CLE 5
7 IND 2
8 JAC 6
9 S D -7
10 G B -4
11 IND -2
12 CHI 3
14 DEN -7
15 K C -11
16 JAC 2
17 HOU 1
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
7 9 0 0.438
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
8 8 0.500
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
KANSAS CITY
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 S D 4 6 33 27
2 HOU 5 -7 12 19
3 NYJ 11 21 24 3
4 PIT 1
6 OAK 2
7 N O 12
8 IND 7
9 JAC 15
10 CAR 1
11 T B 14
12 DEN -4
13 ATL 3
14 OAK 6
15 TEN 11
16 DEN 2
17 S D 1
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
14 2 0 0.875
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
10 6 0.625
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
L. A. RAMS
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 S F -7 -28 0 28
2 SEA -10 6 9 3
3 T B -2 5 37 32
4 ARI -15
5 BUF -8
6 DET -6
7 NYG -7
9 CAR -7
10 NYJ -4
11 MIA -2
12 N O -4
13 N E -17
14 ATL -4
15 SEA -14
16 S F -3
17 ARI -10
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
2 14 0 0.125
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
3 13 0.188
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
MIAMI
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 SEA -8 -2 10 12
2 N E -11 -7 24 31
3 CLE 6 6 30 24
4 CIN 1
5 TEN 3
6 PIT -3
7 BUF -4
9 NYJ 4
10 S D -6
11 L A 2
12 S F 1
13 BAL -1
14 ARI -6
15 NYJ -1
16 BUF -8
17 N E -7
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
6 10 0 0.375
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
8 8 0.500
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
MINNESOTA
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 TEN 6 9 25 16
2 G B 3 3 17 14
3 CAR 1 12 22 10
4 NYG 3
5 HOU 7
7 PHI -10
8 CHI 11
9 DET 9
10 WAS 11
11 ARI -1
12 DET 5
13 DAL 5
14 JAC 10
15 IND 11
16 G B -1
17 CHI 16
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
13 3 0 0.813
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
13 3 0.813
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
NEW ENGLAND
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 ARI 1 2 23 21
2 MIA 11 7 31 24
3 HOU 11 27 27 0
4 BUF 6
5 CLE 13
6 CIN 14
7 PIT 3
8 BUF 3
10 SEA 6
11 S F 7
12 NYJ 10
13 L A 17
14 BAL 14
15 DEN -1
16 NYJ 15
17 MIA 7
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
15 1 0 0.938
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
14 2 0.875
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
NEW ORLEANS
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 OAK -5 -1 34 35
2 NYG -9 -3 13 16
3 ATL -3 -13 32 45
4 S D -8
6 CAR -6
7 K C -12
8 SEA -7
9 S F -6
10 DEN -9
11 CAR -10
12 L A 4
13 DET 1
14 T B -1
15 ARI -14
16 T B 4
17 ATL -7
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
3 13 0 0.188
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
4 12 0.250
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
N.Y. GIANTS
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 DAL -1 1 20 19
2 N O 9 3 16 13
3 WAS 13 -2 27 29
4 MIN -3
5 G B -2
6 BAL 8
7 L A 7
9 PHI -8
10 CIN 9
11 CHI 13
12 CLE 7
13 PIT -3
14 DAL 3
15 DET 8
16 PHI -12
17 WAS 9
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
10 6 0 0.625
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
10 6 0.625
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
N.Y. JETS
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 CIN 1 -1 22 23
2 BUF -9 6 37 31
3 K C -11 -21 3 24
4 SEA -7
5 PIT -9
6 ARI -13
7 BAL 1
8 CLE 1
9 MIA -4
10 L A 4
12 N E -10
13 IND 2
14 S F -6
15 MIA 1
16 N E -15
17 BUF -5
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
6 10 0 0.375
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
5 11 0.313
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
OAKLAND
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 N O 5 1 35 34
2 ATL 3 -7 28 35
3 TEN 3 7 17 10
4 BAL 4
5 S D 1
6 K C -2
7 JAC 7
8 T B 6
9 DEN -3
11 HOU 5
12 CAR 1
13 BUF 1
14 K C -6
15 S D -3
16 IND 8
17 DEN -8
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
10 6 0 0.625
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
8 8 0.500
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
PHILADELPHIA
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 CLE 20 19 29 10
2 CHI 19 15 29 14
3 PIT 11 31 34 3
5 DET 13
6 WAS 19
7 MIN 10
8 DAL 9
9 NYG 8
10 ATL 15
11 SEA 5
12 G B 12
13 CIN 14
14 WAS 24
15 BAL 13
16 NYG 12
17 DAL 13
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
16 0 0 1.000
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
15 1 0.938
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
PITTSBURGH
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 WAS 11 22 38 16
2 CIN 8 8 24 16
3 PHI -11 -31 3 34
4 K C -1
5 NYJ 9
6 MIA 3
7 N E -3
9 BAL 4
10 DAL 3
11 CLE 7
12 IND 4
13 NYG 3
14 BUF -3
15 CIN 4
16 BAL 9
17 CLE 13
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
12 4 0 0.750
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
9 7 0.563
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
ARIZONA
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 N E -1 -2 21 23
2 T B 14 33 40 7
3 BUF 2 -15 18 33
4 L A 15
5 S F 6
6 NYJ 13
7 SEA 4
8 CAR 2
10 S F 10
11 MIN 1
12 ATL 5
13 WAS 18
14 MIA 6
15 N O 14
16 SEA -1
17 L A 10
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
13 3 0 0.813
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
14 2 0.875
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
SAN DIEGO
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 K C -4 -6 27 33
2 JAC 11 24 38 14
3 IND 4 -4 22 26
4 N O 8
5 OAK -1
6 DEN -3
7 ATL 1
8 DEN -6
9 TEN 7
10 MIA 6
12 HOU 1
13 T B 11
14 CAR -3
15 OAK 3
16 CLE 6
17 K C -1
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
9 7 0 0.563
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
9 7 0.563
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
S. FRANCISCO
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 L A 7 28 28 0
2 CAR -5 -19 27 46
3 SEA -7 -19 18 37
4 DAL -1
5 ARI -6
6 BUF -6
7 T B 7
9 N O 6
10 ARI -10
11 N E -7
12 MIA -1
13 CHI 5
14 NYJ 6
15 ATL -4
16 L A 3
17 SEA -3
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
6 10 0 0.375
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
5 11 0.313
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
SEATTLE
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 MIA 8 2 12 10
2 L A 10 -6 3 9
3 S F 7 19 37 18
4 NYJ 7
6 ATL 7
7 ARI -4
8 N O 7
9 BUF 3
10 N E -6
11 PHI -5
12 T B 8
13 CAR 5
14 G B -1
15 L A 14
16 ARI 1
17 S F 3
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
11 5 0 0.688
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
11 5 0.688
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
TAMPA BAY
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 ATL -7 7 31 24
2 ARI -14 -33 7 40
3 L A 2 -5 32 37
4 DEN -11
5 CAR -10
7 S F -7
8 OAK -6
9 ATL -4
10 CHI 5
11 K C -14
12 SEA -8
13 S D -11
14 N O 1
15 DAL -11
16 N O -4
17 CAR -6
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
3 13 0 0.188
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
5 11 0.313
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
WASHINGTON
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 PIT -11 -22 16 38
2 DAL -9 -4 23 27
3 NYG -13 2 29 27
4 CLE -1
5 BAL -7
6 PHI -19
7 DET -8
8 CIN -7
10 MIN -11
11 G B -9
12 DAL -13
13 ARI -18
14 PHI -24
15 CAR -9
16 CHI -3
17 NYG -9
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
1 15 0 0.063
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
2 14 0.125
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
CAROLINA
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 DEN -5 -1 20 21
2 S F 5 19 46 27
3 MIN -1 -12 10 22
4 ATL 1
5 T B 10
6 N O 6
8 ARI -2
9 L A 7
10 K C -1
11 N O 10
12 OAK -1
13 SEA -5
14 S D 3
15 WAS 9
16 ATL 6
17 T B 6
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
10 6 0 0.625
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
11 5 0.688
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
JACKSONVILLE
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 G B -9 -4 23 27
2 S D -11 -24 14 38
3 BAL -3 -2 17 19
4 IND -3
6 CHI -1
7 OAK -7
8 TEN -6
9 K C -15
10 HOU -4
11 DET -7
12 BUF -14
13 DEN -12
14 MIN -10
15 HOU -9
16 TEN -2
17 IND -7
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
0 16 0 0.000
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
3 13 0.188
PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
CLEVELAND
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 PHI -20 -19 10 29
2 BAL -2 -5 20 25
3 MIA -6 -6 24 30
4 WAS 1
5 N E -13
6 TEN -5
7 CIN -5
8 NYJ -1
9 DAL -6
10 BAL -5
11 PIT -7
12 NYG -7
14 CIN -1
15 BUF -13
16 S D -6
17 PIT -13
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
1 15 0 0.063
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
5 11 0.313
1 PREDICTIONS FOR
WEEK 4, 09/27/16
HOUSTON
WK OPP PRE ACT SCORE
1 CHI 8 9 23 14
2 K C -5 7 19 12
3 N E -11 -27 0 27
4 TEN 3
5 MIN -7
6 IND 4
7 DEN -10
8 DET 3
10 JAC 4
11 OAK -5
12 S D -1
13 G B -7
14 IND -1
15 JAC 9
16 CIN 5
17 TEN -1
--PREDICTION--
W L T PCT.
8 8 0 0.500
--SIMULATION--
W L PCT.
7 9 0.438
THE MOST LIKELY NFC LEADERS ARE: PHILADELPHIA (15- 1), MINNESOTA (13- 3)
CAROLINA (11- 5) AND ARIZONA (14- 2)
THE MOST LIKELY AFC LEADERS ARE: NEW ENGLAND (14- 2), PITTSBURGH ( 9- 7)
TENNESSEE ( 8- 8) AND DENVER (14- 2)
THE MOST LIKELY NFC WILD CARD TEAMS ARE GREEN BAY AND SEATTLE
THE MOST LIKELY AFC WILD CARD TEAMS ARE KANSAS CITY AND BUFFALO
THE NFC CHAMPION SHOULD BE PHILADELPHIA. THE AFC CHAMP NEW ENGLAND.
FAVORED BY 4 POINTS, THE SUPER BOWL CHAMP WILL BE PHILADELPHIA.
OF COURSE ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN A PLAYOFF GAME AND INJURIES
AFTER THIS WEEK CAN KNOCK ANY TEAM OUT OF THE BOX. BUT BASED ON
THE STATS TO DATE PHILADELPHIA WILL BE THE SUPER BOWL WINNER.
* COMPUTER SEASON PREDICTIONS ARE MADE FOR TWO CONDITIONS:
THE THIRD LINE SHOWS THE NUMBER OF GAMES WHERE THE TEAM IS
THE PREDICTED 'FAVORITE'. BY DEFINITION THEN THE LEAGUE'S
STRONGEST TEAM WOULD BE PREDICTED TO WIN THE MOST IF NOT ALL
ITS GAMES.
HOWEVER, WE ALL KNOW THAT FAVORITES ARE UPSET 20 TO 25
PERCENT OF THE TIME. SO THE FIRST LINE IS A BETTER ESTIMATE
OF THE SEASON W-L RECORD. THIS FIRST LINE IS BASED ON WHAT
STATISTICIANS CALL A MONTE CARLO SIMULATION-I.E., THE COMPUTER
PLAYS THROUGH THE NFL SCHEDULE 1000 TIMES AND ESTIMATES THE
NUMBER OF WINS TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION POSSIBLE UPSETS.
TEAMS WITHIN DIVISIONS ARE SORTED BY SIMULATED PERCENTAGES.
IN CASE TWO TEAMS ARE TIED IN THE WON/LOSS COLUMN (THIRD LINE)
OR ARE TIED WHEN PICKING WILD CARD TEAMS, THE BEST TEAM WILL
BE THE SIMULATED WINNER OF THE TWO.
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