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Tampa Bay Bucs vs Philadelphia Eagles

Points per Pass is a key stat describing how pro football games are played. And WON. The stat is not a measure of the passing game. It is a measure of the BALANCE between pass and run. It is likely it will have an impact on the NFC Championship game Sunday matching the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Bucs.

Since a team can't run and pass on the same play the more they run the leas they pass. And, since a team runs more when they lead, the stat has hidden in it each team's scoring power.

Okay. Now get ready for this you guys: The stat is so important that last season it correlated 96% with games won. It is, in short, a twin brother to a playoff win.

Where do the Eagles and Bucs stand on Points per Pass?

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Coach Andy Reid built his Eagles team over the last few years with improvement on points per pass. Every season seen in the chart pictures the tight relationship between this stat and improvement on the winning margin (scoring differential). Improvements are proportional: Years Points per Pass moves up rapidly, the winning margin takes a big jump.

Buc's coach Jon Gruden inherited a great defense from Coach Tony Dungy. And improved it radically. Compliments to Coach Gruden.

On offense the Eagles won every game where they were stronger than league average (light blue line). And, of the six games where they were weaker won half and lost half, as seen in the chart below.

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The graph of the Buc's D pictures the same story: They won all but one of their games (week 1, Saints) when they were stronger than average (below the light blue line) and lost half of their 4 games when weaker. See the chart below.

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The passing efficiency stats, like our Killer Stat (yards per pass) will make key contributions to the win. On defense, the Bucs are head and shoulders over the league allowing only 4.56 yards per toss. (see Killer Stat-Defense.) On the same stat, Eagles rank 5th allowing 5.38.

With the Bucs on D, Tampa Bay has an advantage of 3.7 points on yards per pass. (See the Graphic Matchups chart.)

For an exercise in why teams win, plot the points per pass stats during the game. Early on, when points per pass gets close to 1-to-1 you will have a fat clue as to the ultimate winner.

The electronic hardware projects a close game with the Eagles favored by 5.

Bud Goode and Bill Sanders