Tampa Bay Bucs vs Oakland Raiders

Odds are the stat separating winner from loser in Sunday's Super Bowl will be Points per Pass. The graph below pictures the Oakland Raiders, AFC leader at the top of the chart on their scoring differential (+10 points per game in their Winning Margin). And Raiders are very near the top on the points per pass earning a quarter-point more on offense (0.24) than their D allows.

Points per Pass is a stat that measures more than passing efficiency. It is really a measure of the run-pass balance. Because a team can't run and pass on the same play, the more they run the less they pass.

Since strong teams usually lead in scoring, and teams in the lead run more than they pass, the run-pass balance has hidden beneath its surface the fact that a powerful team, strong on both offense and defense, earns a quarter-point to a half-point more than their D allows.

Early in the season this stat is set in wet concrete. So next year keep an eye on the weekly Points per Pass stat. You'll be the first kid on the block to get a handle on the most likely playoff teams.

The interesting feature in this AFC helmets graph is, from a knowledge of this one stat you have the ability to predict the scoring differential and Games Won each season. And make that prediction with great accuracy. Why? A middling team will earn one point on offense for each D point allowed. This produces a 0 points per pass differential. Check the graph: The top team on the scoring differential (Oakland) is also one of the top teams in the AFC on both stats.

The cellar-dwelling Bengals are at the bottom of the ladder. Allowing a half-a-point more on defense than their offense earns they are the weakest AFC team on both stats (losing their average game by more than -10 points). Even the new Houston Texans are stronger.

The NFC "helmets" graph below pictures the Tampa Bay Bucs with 11 wins and at the top of the Conference. And they lead the NFC on the key Points per Pass differential.

How did they get there?

Two stats tell the story: The first is Passing TDs. In season 2001 the Bucs ranked 26th and rocketed to the top spot this year.
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The huge improvement contributed 6.2 points per game to the Bucs scoring differential (winning margin). This gain almost fully accounts for the 6.6 point jump in the Buc's winning margin.

The second stat, Defensive Points per 100 Yards, a measure of D efficiency, was also the league's MOST UP.
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Improvement on this key D stat added another 6.2 points per game.

Hey, Coach Gruden inherited a great D from Coach Tony Dungy. And made it better. But these two stats measure improvement on both sides of the ball. Does Jon Gruden deserves a bunch of compliments for his work?. Right on.

What do the pictures tell us? If the Bucs D plays to season form, then the Oakland Raider vaunted offense is not going to do a walk over. The computer sees a close game, favoring Oakland by one.

Bud Goode and Bill Sanders

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