Indy Colts at NY Jets
The Jets and the Colts go to war in Saturday's first wildcard game in New Jersey.
The electronic hardware sees it as a close game.
Passing efficiency stats will likely separate winner from loser.
On both offense and defense QB sacks and INTs are the key.
Why?
Because each stat contributes some point value to both offense and defense.
This year one sack contributes 4 points to the victory (up from 3 points last season) and the interception contributes 7 points.
Historically this marks a big change in the game for the INT typically is valued at only 5+ points.
The Graphic Matchups chart shows the Jets offense has a 5-point advantage on INTs while the Colt's offense has
a 5-point edge on QB Sacks.
When backup QB Chad Pennington began throwing the ball the Jet's trend on key passing efficiency stats improved.
Young Pennington took over for injured vet Vinnie Testeverde in a losing effort vs Jags in week 4.
Pennington's first start was a tough 4-point loss to the KC Chiefs.
But in his second start against Vikes, Pennington went 24 of 29 for 324 yards.
That's a gee-whiz stat.
Even with the Vikes finishing last in the league on our Killer Stat-Defense.
Jets lost only 3 games during remainder of season.
With Pennington at the helm, Jets went 8-4 as he racked up an AFC-leading QB ranking of 104.2.
Jets' improvement during the season on the key passing stat, yards per pass attempt is pictured in the chart below.
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It is likely that QB Pennington and his receivers are still improving.
So the averages seen in the graphics are understatements of the Jet's current strength (witness their 42 points in the upset victory over Packers last week).
But how do you stop Colt's QB Payton Manning and his league-leading WR Marvin Harrison?
Harrison lead the league with 143 catches for 1722 yards.
No other receiver in the league was close to these numbers.
Colts ended the season ranking 3rd behind only the Chiefs and Giants on our
Killer Stat-Offense, yards per pass attempt.
(Note Jets are 3rd most improved, up 3.61 points per game).
And Colts' Coach Dungy brought his tough-D style of play to Indy.
Colts are the league's most improved team on defense.
In season 2002, Colts allowed 19.56 points per game.
That's 10.9 fewer points per game than last year--phenom improvement.
Does Coach Dungy know something about building a defense?
Colts big improvement came from keeping teams out of the end zone.
Last year they ranked 31st (last) in the league, allowing 3.6 opponent TDs per game.
This year Colts improved to rank 9th at 2.25 opponent TDs per game.
Because of the increased import of both the sack and the INT Saturday's winner could be decided on one play.
Will it be a 7-point interception?
Or a 4-point QB sack?
With 125 plays in the game, any ONE PLAY (a QB sack or intercept) can produce the winner.
If the two teams play to statistical form, the electronic hardware projects a 3-point Jet's victory.
It will be a great game to watch.
Bud Goode and Bill Sanders
Tomorrow: Falcons/Packers game
Copyright 2002, BudGoodeSports.com. All rights reserved.
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