Atlanta Falcons vs Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles and Falcons face off this weekend much like a pair of birds of prey in flight. It is likely when the ball is in the air their sharp talons will be clutching for the pigskin.

Passing efficiency stats will be a determining factor in winning Saturday's aerial dog fight. On offense the Falcons lose less than one interception per game. While the Eagle's pass D has stolen less than 1 INT (0.9) they made up for it with league-leading QB pressure, averaging 3 1/2 sacks per game.

Historical change this year in the importance of the passing efficiency stats (QB sacks and interceptions). According to our stat research the lost intercept typically contributes 5 points to the scoring differential. This season the INT's value jumped to 7 points. And the QB sack increased its import moving from 3 points to 5.

The importance of the QB Sack is pictured in the two charts below which plot weekly performance on the QB Sack Differential. That's offensive QB Sacks minus the number of times the defense sacks opposition QB. Eagles lost all 3 games where the differential was negative (red bar extending downward from zero line). Falcons won only 1 of 6 (win vs NO, tie vs PIT).

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The next two charts picture the importance of the Passes Intercepted Differential. Philadelphia gave up exactly one more interception than they stole in only 4 games. And they managed to win three of those. Atlanta was out-intercepted by their opponents only three times (-3 to TB, -2 to SEA, -1 to TB) but they lost all 3 contests.

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While the Eagles' D averages 3 1/2 sacks per game, and the Falcons steal 1 1/2 interceptions these fractional stats don't show up in the newspaper agate, i.e., you can't throw one-half an INT and you can't trap the quarterback a fraction of the time. You throw one or two INTS and you sack the QB 2 or 3 times. There are no fractions.

So starting QBs Vick and McNabb won't throw half an interception. And their respective defenses won't steal half an INT. The final stats will read one bad pass and two sacks or three. But NOT 2 1/2.

An important difference? Yes. Moving from one INT to two is a change of 100%. Stats which rarely occur (once or twice a game or not at all) are the reason the sack and INT are so important. So in what looks to be a close game the win depends on one bad pass or one extra sack. In terms of passing efficiency stats this playoff game can be a one-play contest.

Victory likely requires an error free game.

The clock control/running game will be great to watch for obvious reasons: Both Vick and McNabb have speed and moves. Vick earned 777 yards on the ground. McNabb broke his leg.

There is a difference. We'll have to wait for Saturday to see the two wildly exciting QBs pull the ball down and run. Based on their average performance stats the Eagles have almost a 2-point advantage with their running game when on offense. It is matched by the Falcons. See the Graphic Matchups chart.

So on the key clock control stat it's a push.

When evaluating strong teams we never know if they played all out. Or just enough to win. In the Eagles' final game of the season, a 3-point loss to the Giants, the Eagles' vaunted D allowed 39 rushes but the Giants scored only 10 points. Could the Eagles have won the game? Of course.

But this week it is a money game. Count on the Eagle D to show up in force. If the teams play to their season's statistical form, the electronic hardware sees Philadelphia favored by 7.

Bud Goode and Bill Sanders

Tomorrow: San Francisco/Tampa Bay

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