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Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

Atlanta has been on our list of playoff contenders most of the season. A bit of a surprise team, Falcons won two games more than that last year and may be on the road to the Super Bowl.

The key stat contributing to the improvement is number of rushing plays. Falcons jumped from 27.3 total rushes (18th) last season to 32.7 (2nd) this year, adding 5.6 points per game to their winning margin (scoring differential).

Coach Reeves has been re-building his rush attack since season 2000, as pictured in the graph below.

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The Falcons mount a strong rush attack behind RB Warrick Dunn (230 carries, 927 yards) and sensational QB Michael Vick (113 carries, 777 yards). Keeping the ball on the ground (one of only eight teams with more rushes than passes), Falcons avoided costly intercepts and sacks.

Facing the Packers this Saturday, the Graphic Matchups chart shows the Falcons offense has a 2.5-point edge with their strong ground game.

The Packers offense features a versatile ball-control game. The air attack is led by QB Favre, always near the top of the charts in most passing stats. But this year, yards per pass, our key Killer Stat-Offense dropped from 7.1 (rank 3rd) to 5.9 (rank 16th). And it's trending down. Packers were below average in 5 of their last 6 games as seen in the chart below.
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As a sidebar, Packer Bart Starr was the last QB to earn 9 yards per toss. The great Packer teams of yesteryear always displayed an efficient pass offense. And Favre has consistently been near the league lead. What's happened over the last 5 games? Hidden injuries? Or, clinching a playoff spot, has the Pack been playing soft? Will the real Brett Favre please stand up? It's going to be an interesting game.

Packers have compensated for their sagging passing stats with an improved rushing game. RB Ahman Green ran for 1240 yards on 286 carries, 4th in the NFC.

But facing the Falcons, veteran QB Favre will likely need a big game for the Pack to win. If the teams play to statistical form, the computer sees another close game: Packers over Falcons on the frozen tundra by 3.

Bud Goode and Bill Sanders

Tomorrow: Browns/Steelers game