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Week 18
Wildcard Weekend: Statistical Reasons Why They Won
In terms of journalism's Who, What, When, Where and Why the key statistical reasons WHY teams lost the Wildcard playoffs round are pictured below.
Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens
In the wildcard round the Miami Dolphins threw 4 INTERCEPTIONS and the Baltimore Ravens' QB Flacco threw none. The 18-point victory was fully accounted for by the 20.5 PPG contributed by the the 4 INTs. In the game of football as in the game of life, mistakes can kill you.
Click here for the PostGameAnalysis graphic.
Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons
In the Arizona Cardinals' victory over the improved Atlanta Falcons the key Killer Stat was CB Sacks. Cards' CB, golden-armed Kurt Warner was not dropped once while the Falcons took 3 big hits. The big difference in performance contributed 9.7 PPG (more than accounting for the 6-point Atlanta loss).
CLICK HERE for a stat graphic picturing the winner-loser stat profile.
Minnesota Vikings vs Philadelphia Eagles
The Minnesota Vikings have one of the world's greatest RBs in Adrian Peterson. But they have suffered weak offensive pass efficiency. Yards per Pass Attempt has long been the most important stat separating winners from losers. In the loss to the Eagles the Vikes' pass D allowed Eagle QB McNabb to earn 7.7 yards per toss while earning 4.3. Almost double the Vikes' performance the difference produced a 13 PPG contribution fully accounting for the Eagles' 12-point victory.
CLICK HERE for a stat profile of the game.
San Diego Chargers vs Indianapolis Colts
Our stat research group's Winning Index is made up of 8 stats on offense and 8 on defense. This one number is highly reliable in making long range scoring projections. The two most important factors are, first, PASSING EFFICIENCY stats and second, CLOCK CONTROL/RUNNING GAME stats.
Sand Diego had two of the best RBs in the league in Wilkinson and Sproles. The Colts couldn't compete. With only 64 yards on the ground the Colts looked puny compared to the Chargers 167 yards rushing. The difference in performance contributed 14.4 PPG more than accounting for the 6-point Charger victory.
CLICK HERE for a 50 variable stat graphic picturing the winning profile for the Chargers.
Week 5
Divisional Leaders
NFC
After 5 weeks In the race for the playoffs the key Killer Stat is Goode's Winning Index. In the stat graphic below the most likely NFC Divisional leaders and their projected Won-Lost records are:
Team | Projected Record |
|---|
Giants | 16-0 |
Bears | 13-3 |
Panthers | 11-5 |
Cardinals | 11-5 |
If we LET THE DATA SPEAK FOR ITSELF, using 5 week stats here is a graphic picturing the 4 NFC DIVISIONAL LEADERS's and their relative position to the wolf pack of potential Wild Card teams growling at their heels.
The race is tight. PARITY has come to the balance of power at the top of the NFC. Since the Super Bowl is won by the strongest stat profile only once in 3 years, it is possible for a wild card team to win the Big Game.
Scatterplots by Division
Copyright 2005, BudGoodeSports.com. All rights reserved.
ONE MORE VICTORY: When a team adds one victory to its projected record, and that victory wins a playoff spot, the outcome could be a Super Bowl title.
This one win can add big buck$ to the franchise value (fifty million$ is a reasonable round number).
Two potential Wild Card teams after 5 games:
Team | Projected Record |
|---|
Cowboys | 11-5 |
Redskins | 11-5 |
Injuries and luck can turn these scoring projections into road kill.
AFC
Goode's Winning Index with team helmets plotted against the Winning Margin picture the most likely teams to make the playoffs. The TOP 6 teams will get their shot at this year's Super Bowl.
Scatterplots by Division
Copyright 2005, BudGoodeSports.com. All rights reserved.
The Tennessee Titans are the strongest in the AFC, the Ravens are second and they are followed by the Bills and Broncos with Wild Card teams Dolphins and Steelers.
But the New England Patriots are moving up the scale. Fast.
Patriot fans can check this stat graphic weekly. It is likely Coach Belichick is using his magic wand to work a miracle.
Bud Goode
Week 3
Patriots: Snake Bit and Gator 'Et
Coach Bill Belichick's New England Patriots were snake bit and gator 'et in week 3 when the Miami Dolphins turned into bloody piranha fish, chewed them up and spit out their bones.
The stat graphic below pictures the points contributed on each of 50 stats to the huge 25-point loss. The Killer Stat was Yards per Pass Attempt which contributed almost 30 points to Miami's victory. Yards per toss to WR Randy Moss and "sure hands" Welker were not seen.
Copyright 2008 BudGoodeSports.com. All rights reserved.
The trio of QB Brady to Moss and to Welker set the Patriots at the top of the league in 2007. But in week 3 the graphic shows they earned only 3.4 yards per toss a puny effort.
But the Pats have 3 wins and only 1 loss. Coach Belichick is still in the race for the playoffs.
Football teams run hot and cold. Possible reasons for this ice cube performance? If you have any neat ideas, send Bud your comments (budgoode@ix.netcom.com).
Bud Goode
Week 2
Winning with Passing Efficiency
Frequently NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell comments on the knowledge fans have re the NFL's reasons why teams win. This falls into the domain of journalism's Who, What, When, Where and Why?
Typically the most important stat separating winners from losers is Yards per Pass Attempt differential. Last season for example yards per toss, sacks counted as failed attempts, was linked to winning and was the most important stat reason why teams win.
This season, after only 2 games it is once again in the top five stats which typically all belong to a statistical cluster which our research group labels "Passing Efficiency."
Yards per toss difference goes hand-in-hand with other measures of passing efficiency. Examples: First Down Passing Percentage, Completion Percentage, Passing TD Percentage and Passing INT Percentage.
In the first 2 weeks ALL of these stats are linked to winning at the 60% level. Last year the yards per attempt finished the season at 80%.
But the season is young. An opinion is that the yards per toss will improve in import as the season proceeds. Young QBs will improve with experience. Last year's leader, New England Patriot's QB Brady, led the league. Brady is out. But Coach Bill Belichick is in and guiding his new pupil. The Pats will look better. Buffalo's QB Trent Eswards will be better and the Vikings may find replacement QB Gus Frerotte their main man.
The IR list will return walking wounded (both receivers and QBs). And all of the above passing efficiency stats will improve.
The above copy is based on a look at the NFL stat database beginning in 1959.
So let's take a look at your team's performance beginning with the year 2000 (Coach Belichick's arrival in New England). In the stat graphic below note how his team has improved on Yards per Pass. Years in which the improvement was great, the scoring differential was great.
Yds/Pass Att Differential with
Winning Margin
Yearly 2000 to 2008 New England Patriots
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