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* FLASH * Week 12 Playmakers Stats don't win games. People do. And this season the New England Patriots' front office dropped WR Randy Moss into coaching genius Bill Belichick's hands replacing last season's leading receiver. Result? Their offense rocketed skyward. The improved stats riding on the golden hands of WR Moss added glitter to the Pats' league-leading offense.

Pass TDs/Opp Intcpts	Percentile Chart 100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest Lines: Playoff Avg=4 SuperBowl Avg=5	Win Mrg Points Change Winning Margin Points Change Sorted by Points Change, 2006 to 2007
Rank Team Pctl Stat Value Points behind Leader Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2006 Games Won 1 N E 100 5.56 0.00 5.66 16 2 JAX 59 3.50 3.35 3.73 11 3 PIT 38 2.43 5.10 2.33 10 4 SEA 35 2.31 5.29 1.84 10 5 IND 35 2.29 5.33 -1.89 13 6 T B 34 2.25 5.39 2.40 9 7 G B 29 2.00 5.80 1.63 13 8 DAL 27 1.89 5.97 1.07 13 9 WAS 22 1.64 6.39 -0.43 9 10 PHI 21 1.60 6.45 -3.01 8 11 N O 20 1.56 6.52 -0.85 7 12 CLE 18 1.45 6.69 1.39 10 13 DEN 17 1.40 6.77 0.47 7 14 S D 17 1.38 6.81 -2.11 11 15 ARI 16 1.33 6.88 0.54 8 16 CIN 15 1.30 6.94 -1.39 7 17 ATL 13 1.20 7.10 -0.33 4 18 NYG 12 1.15 7.18 -0.30 10 19 HOU 12 1.14 7.19 0.11 8 20 CAR 12 1.12 7.23 0.00 7 21 BAL 8 0.93 7.54 -0.93 5 22 S F 7 0.88 7.62 -0.19 5 23 DET 7 0.86 7.65 -0.15 7 24 CHI 7 0.86 7.66 -0.38 7 25 BUF 7 0.86 7.66 -0.82 7 26 MIN 7 0.86 7.66 0.34 8 27 K C 6 0.85 7.67 -1.06 4 28 OAK 6 0.85 7.67 0.91 4 29 NYJ 5 0.79 7.77 -0.45 4 30 MIA 4 0.75 7.83 -0.15 1 31 STL 3 0.68 7.95 -3.78 3 32 TEN 0 0.53 8.19 -0.25 10 2007 Season, YTD through Week 17

Pass TDs/Opp Intcpts with Winning Margin Yearly 2000 to 2007 Week 12 New England Patriots In season 2006 Patriots ranked 6th on Pass TDs/Opp Intcpts at 2.08. In season 2007 they ranked 1st at 7.80, up 9.32 points per game on this one stat. From 2006 to 2007 Patriots improved by 14.1 points per game on Winning Margin. Hey fans, is this a Gee Whiz picture of a stat that makes a winner? Right on. Fantasy players, coaches and some owners may want to go scouting for wide receivers with Randy's pocketful of skills -- brains, speed, moves, vertical leap and circus-like, one-handed completions. One man's performance changed the game. With the addition of Moss to QB Brady's list of receivers one team's improvement changed the statistical correlation (a measure of a stat's importance) from 29% last season to 65% in 2007. Exclamation point. The Pats added 9.3 points to their winning margin on this key stat (most UP AFC team adding 14.1 points per game, see also: MOST UP/DOWN.) Randy Moss is a hiway sign post reading WINNERS, THIS WAY. And the Pats are shooting for a perfect season. If you don't think so, look at the picture. Bud Goode Copyright 2007, BudGoodeSports.com. All rights reserved. * FLASH * Week 11 New England Know-How The Wall Street Journal carried a full page ad this week which read: "THE TWO MOST POWERFUL FORCES OF CHANGE: KNOW-HOW AND KNOW-WHO." New England Patriot's Coach Bill Belichick knew HOW to build a winning Super Bowl team... in his first four seasons at the Pats he had three Super B wins. And he KNEW what STATS NEEDED IMPROVEMENT. While the Patriots had a profile of Super Bowl stats last season there was room for improvement. The stat graphic below pictures the huge change this year over last on the key Passing TDs-to-Opponent Intercepts...

Pass TDs/Opp Intcpts	Percentile Chart 100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest Lines: Playoff Avg=4 SuperBowl Avg=5	Win Mrg Points Change Winning Margin Points Change Sorted by Points Change, 2006 to 2007
AFC East 2007 Season, YTD through Week 17 Rank Team Pctl Stat Value Points behind Leader Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2006 Games Won 1 N E 100 5.56 0.00 5.66 16 25 BUF 7 0.86 7.66 -0.82 7 29 NYJ 5 0.79 7.77 -0.45 4 30 MIA 4 0.75 7.83 -0.15 1

Week 17--AFC East PLAYOFF RACE

Patriots lead the division at 5.56 and are followed by Bills (0.86), Jets (0.79) and Dolphins (0.75).
Patriots earned 5.56 on Pass TDs/Opp Intcpts and are 0.00 points behind the league leader.
The Patriots up/down points change on this stat over last season is 5.66.

The league's most up team on Pass TDs/Opp Intcpts is the New England Patriots, up 5.66 points per game through week 17.
The most down team is the St. Louis Rams, down -3.78 points.

Coach Belichick also knew who to bring to the Patriots to improve their passing efficiency -- the league's best WR, Randy Moss. Every four-plus catches scores a TD. And QB Brady is scoring eight TDs for each lost INT. The typical league leader finiishes the season near 3-to-1. The Pats are favored to go undefeated all the way through the Big Game. (see the Predict Report projection matrix, scroll down for New England.) Bud Goode Copyright 2007, BudGoodeSports.com. All rights reserved. * FLASH * Week 10 Was Falcon QB Vick a QB? Or a Runner? Here are some stats to mull over. With Atlanta Falcons' QB Vick out of the lineup this season, the Falcons' league-leading running game is down more than any NFL team. The stat graphic below pictures sturdy Vick's running prowess with his team's 2006 league-leading 184 yards per game and this season's slide into oblivion. Yards Rushing (Net) with Winning Margin Yearly 2000 to 2007 Week 10 Atlanta Falcons In season 2006 Falcons ranked 1st on Yards Rushing (Net) at 183.69. In season 2007 they ranked 20th at 97.67, down 12.9 points per game on this one stat. From 2006 to 2007 Falcons declined by 3 points per game on Winning Margin. Without Vick the Falcons fell to 20th earning only 98 yards per game. Their King of the Hill performance turned into a slippery downhill schuss which cost the Falcons 12.9 points per game. But it's flip side for the Falcons passing efficiency stats. The percent Passing Average Differential improved more than any other NFC team moving from 31st to 10th and adding almost 6 points per game. The stat graphic below pictures this improvement. Pct Pass Avg Differential with Winning Margin Yearly 2000 to 2007 Week 9 Atlanta Falcons In season 2006 Falcons ranked 31st on Pct Pass Avg Differential at -8.71. In season 2007 they ranked 14th at 0.15, up 4.43 points per game on this one stat. From 2006 to 2007 Falcons declined by 4.5 points per game on Winning Margin. With Vick at QB the Falcons ranked 31st on this key passing efficiency stat. In 2007 they rocketed to 10th up almost 6 points per game and almost 5 points per game belonged to the offensive side of this pass efficiency performance stat. With it all, their Winning Margin declined. When the draft rolls around next Aprill will the Falcons think about a running back? Vick's stats suggest he was one of the best Bud Goode Copyright 2007, BudGoodeSports.com. All rights reserved. * FLASH * Week 9 Brady to Moss All season long this space has been harping on the marriage between Patriots' QB Brady and his new WR Moss. These two dedicated athletes lead the league in passing efficiency stats. And our group of pass efficiency stats includes the Percentage of Passing TDs to Pass Attempts. The stat graphic below pictures the improvement this year vs last for New Egngland. It is a Gee Whiz! chart showing the remarkable improvement the Pats' offense made since 2006 with WR Moss on board. And it marks Coach Bill Belichick's great knowledge of the game (what stats are most important?) and his experienced judgment in selectig wining personnel. Pct TDs per Pass with Winning Margin Yearly 2000 to 2007 Week 9 New England Patriots In season 2006 Patriots ranked 8th on Pct TDs per Pass at 4.50. In season 2007 they ranked 1st at 10.48, up 11.72 points per game on this one stat. From 2006 to 2007 Patriots improved by 13.9 points per game on Winning Margin. The results: First, the Pats are the most improved team on the scoring differential (Winning Margin) adding 13.9 points per game. And this Passing TD Percentage contributed almost 12 points to this rocketing margin of victory. Second, last year's performance was strong enough to make them a potential Super Bowl team. But they lost their playoff game on 2 dropped passes by their leading receiver. Moss replaced him. Moss doesn't drop the ball. He catches one-handed. It will be interesting to see the playoff game which most likely will rematch the Colts and the Pats. Here's another look at the Passing TD percentage stat comparing Pats to the rest of their division. The other AFC East teams are no shows. Bud Goode

Pct TDs per Pass	Percentile Chart 100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest Lines: Playoff Avg=60 SuperBowl Avg=60	Win Mrg Points Change Winning Margin Points Change Sorted by Points Change, 2006 to 2007
AFC East 2007 Season, YTD through Week 17 Rank Team Pctl Stat Value Points behind Leader Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2006 Games Won 1 N E 100 8.24 0.00 7.33 16 26 NYJ 13 2.65 10.94 -1.18 4 29 BUF 11 2.55 11.15 -2.80 7 31 MIA 3 2.01 12.21 -1.03 1

Copyright 2007, BudGoodeSports.com. All rights reserved. * FLASH * Week 8 AFC Championship Preview? The New England Patriots face the Indianapolis Colts this week in a potential preview of the AFC Championship game. With tickets selling for $1000 it is a game every fan has to see. It's King Kong vs Godzilla. With the Pats on offense the stat graphic below (from our MATCHUPS section) pictures the key stats most likely to separate winner from loser and computes a points ADVANTAGE for both the Pats and Colts.

Patriots on Offense

Offense/Defense	Independant	Offense	Defense	Advantage		Points
Matchup	Variable Name	N E	IND	Patriots	Colts	Advantage
N E Off vs IND Def	QB Sacks - I	1	1.71			6.1   N E
N E Off vs IND Def	Yards per Pass Att - I	8.89	4.96			3.1   N E
N E Off vs IND Def	Passes Had Intercpted - I	0.38	1.29			3   N E
N E Off vs IND Def	Total Rushing Plays - I	32.38	26.43			1.9   N E
N E Off vs IND Def	Fum Lost This Year - I	0.5	1			0.2   IND
N E Off vs IND Def	Yards per Touchdown - P	96.8	152.57			1.1   IND

With Patriots on offense and Colts on defense the most important independant stat
is QB Sacks where Patriots have an advantage of 6.1 points.

Offense/Defense	Dependant	Offense	Defense	Advantage		Points
Matchup	Variable Name	N E	IND	Patriots	Colts	Advantage
N E Off vs IND Def	Total Points Scored - D	41.38	14.57			7.3   N E

Patriots on Defense

Defense/Offense	Independant	Defense	Offense	Advantage		Points
Matchup	Variable Name	N E	IND	Patriots	Colts	Advantage
N E Def vs IND Off	Total Rushing Plays - I	20.5	31.71			2.8   N E
N E Def vs IND Off	Yards per Pass Att - I	5.03	7.7			0.7   N E
N E Def vs IND Off	Yards per Touchdown - P	170	119.26			0.7   N E
N E Def vs IND Off	Fum Lost This Year - I	0.88	0.29			1.4   IND
N E Def vs IND Off	Passes Had Intercpted - I	1.38	0.43			2.3   IND
N E Def vs IND Off	QB Sacks - I	2.75	0.71			3.9   IND

With Patriots on defense and Colts on offense the most important stat
is QB Sacks where Colts have an advantage of 3.9 points.

Offense/Defense	Dependant	Defense	Offense	Advantage		Points
Matchup	Variable Name	N E	IND	Patriots	Colts	Advantage
N E Def vs IND Off	Total Points Scored - D	15.88	32			0.7   N E

If the two teams play to statistical form, the QB sack is the key stat. QB Brady is decked only once each game and the Colts' pass rush reaches the opposing QB less than twice each game. Advantage to Pats, 6.1 points. With the Colts on offense, the QB Sack again emerges as the most likely stat to separate winner from loser. Colts' QB Manning is dumped less than once per game. While the Pats' pass rush traps the opposing golden armed almost 3 times per game it has not been enough to make Manning sweat. Zip goes the ball. This space recently called attention to the fact the quarterback sack is a most unheralded stat and deserves more attention. Frequently it leads to a punt and a punt, like a lost interception or lost fumble, is a give up. Another passing efficiency stat which the game may turn on is the balance between passing TDs and lost intercepts. WR Randy Moss is near the record of 1 TD per 4 completions. Pass TDs/Opp Intcpts with Winning Margin Yearly 2000 to 2007 Week 8 New England Patriots In season 2006 Patriots ranked 6th on Pass TDs/Opp Intcpts at 2.08. In season 2007 they ranked 1st at 10.00, up 12.91 points per game on this one stat. From 2006 to 2007 Patriots improved by 16.3 points per game on Winning Margin. With Moss on board, Coach Belichick and his brace of outstanding wide receivers is setting records not soon to be broken. If ever. They are making a huge contribution to the 16.3-points improvement in the scoring differential (Winning Margin). This one passing efficiency stat improvement is responsible for 12.91 points. Pats' pass offense will be tough to stop. Electronic hardware scoring projection: Pats over Colts by 6. Bud Goode Copyright 2007, BudGoodeSports.com. All rights reserved. * FLASH * Week 7, Part 2 No Joy in Jolly England for Miami No joy in London for Miami with the rush D off 9.93 points per game on Opponent First Downs Rushing (fully accounting fo r the 9.3 points per game loss lin their Winning Margin). The graphic below tells the story. The New York Giants offensive running game will "take no prisoners." The electronic hardware favors the Giants over the Dolphins by 14 points. Bud Goode

Opp FD Rushing	Percentile Chart 100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest Lines: Playoff Avg=54 SuperBowl Avg=60	Win Mrg Points Change Winning Margin Points Change Sorted by Points Change, 2006 to 2007
Rank Team Pctl Stat Value Points behind Leader Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2006 Games Won 1 MIN 100 4.19 0.00 -2.14 8 2 BAL 97 4.31 0.31 -1.53 5 3 PIT 89 4.63 1.07 -0.31 10 4 G B 84 4.81 1.53 2.75 13 5 SEA 82 4.88 1.68 3.66 10 6 N O 79 5.00 1.98 2.44 7 7 TEN 79 5.00 1.98 6.25 10 8 PHI 79 5.00 1.98 7.02 8 9 NYG 74 5.19 2.44 3.51 10 10 DAL 69 5.38 2.90 0.31 13 11 S D 65 5.56 3.36 -0.31 11 12 WAS 65 5.56 3.36 2.29 9 13 ARI 63 5.63 3.51 3.66 8 14 N E 61 5.69 3.66 -3.66 16 15 JAX 60 5.75 3.81 0.31 11 16 T B 58 5.81 3.97 2.29 9 17 S F 56 5.88 4.12 1.98 5 18 CIN 50 6.13 4.73 1.68 7 19 CLE 47 6.25 5.03 1.07 10 20 CHI 47 6.25 5.03 -3.51 7 21 CAR 47 6.25 5.03 -0.61 7 22 BUF 40 6.50 5.64 1.98 7 23 K C 40 6.50 5.64 0.76 4 24 ATL 39 6.56 5.80 -1.22 4 25 STL 39 6.56 5.80 2.44 3 26 HOU 35 6.69 6.10 1.22 8 27 IND 29 6.94 6.71 5.95 13 28 DET 21 7.25 7.47 -0.76 7 29 DEN 16 7.44 7.93 -3.36 7 30 OAK 13 7.56 8.24 -2.14 4 31 NYJ 2 8.00 9.30 -2.59 4 32 MIA 0 8.06 9.46 -8.69 1 2007 Season, YTD through Week 17