BudGoodeSports.com

The key stat in the playoff game matching the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers is Goode's Killer Stat, yards per pass attempt. Giants QB Kerry Collins, built like a tough linebacker at 6' 5" and 245 pounds, is a horse.

The Giants lead the NFC on our Killer Stat-Offense earning 7.1 yards per toss (see
Killer Stat-Offense). The bar graph on the far right shows the Giants are the league's most improved team adding 4.91 points per game in their scoring differential (winning margin).

The journalistic reason why for this boost on offense? To be successful on yards per attempt a team needs a marriage between pitcher and catcher. Collins has just that with WR Amani Toomer and rookie sensation, TE Jeremy Shockey. They will be tough to stop.

And how has the San Francisco pass D performed on this key stat when on defense? The graph below, Opponent Yards per Pass pictures their season. They were stronger than average (note to chart: fewer opponent yards = stronger performance) in three of their first four games, then the gate swung open. They lost tough games to the Saints, Chargers and Eagles, Packers and Rams finishing the season near league average on yards per toss on D. By definition, average is not a championship performance.

On this one Killer Stat, when on offense, the Giants have a 4 1/2 point advantage. (see the Graphic Matchups chart).

With the 49ers on offense, QB Garcia did not perform up to last year's standard with only five games significantly over average. What happened to the 49er's vaunted pass offense? Quarterback Garcia and his receivers had a tougher time scoring. The chart below shows the sudden decline in their Passing TDs Percentage one of the NFL's key QB rating factors. Last year they ranked 3rd, this year 17th.

Pct TDs per Pass with Winning Margin
Yearly 1999 to 2002

San Francisco 49ers

This loss in passing efficiency cost the 49ers 4 points per game. This weaker performance almost fully accounts for the 6.9 point decline in their scoring differential (winning margin).

On the ground neither team can stop the run giving up over 4 yards per carry. The 49er's average per rush is a huge 4.6 yards and they will be charging into a Giant's rush D that allows more than 4 yards. If the 49ers are judicious and control the clock with their running game, and considering their home field advantage, the electronic hardware projects 49ers by 2.

It will be an interesting game. Bud thinks one big play, an extra INT or a QB sack (worth 7 points and 4 points each in the winning margin) will be enough to give the game to the Giants. Bill thinks the 49ers will play conservatively, avoid mistakes and eek out a win. If two teams so evenly matched play to statistical form there is no way to predict the winner. Game-to-game variation is too great. A lucky bounce of the ball could decide it.

Bud Goode and Bill Sanders

NY Giants vs SF 49ers

Opp Yds per Pass Att