Colts at Patriots

Red-hot QB Manning pilots his Colt teammates into a good ol' fashioned New England norwester this Sunday. Patriots' Coach Belichick's pass D can be tougher on QBs than sub-zero temps or Mt. Washington winds.

Manning and his brace of Colts' receivers are coming off powerful performances vs Chiefs and Broncos (see chart, below). But frequently a team's best and worst performances of the season come in back-to-back weeks. A slip back to Colts average performance level could be in the cards.

Yards per Pass Att Indianapolis Colts 2003 through Week 17

Belichick's Pats rank as league's second strongest on pass D as measured by our Killer Stat, defense, yards per pass attempt allowed. And they have the ability to come up with an extra effort against powerful opponents. Like the 2001 Super Bowl win versus the Rams.

The graph below shows the trend for Patriots pass D. It's getting stronger (dark blue line) as the winter season advances and temperatures drop. It will be plenty cold in Foxborough this Sunday.

Opp Yds per Pass Att New England Patriots 2003 through Week 17

It's a great game; a classic offense vs defense matchup in what some would call "real football weather." The computer projects Patriots over Colts by 6.5. Hey, that's a one-score game; anything can happen.

Bud Goode and Bill Sanders

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