Colts at Patriots

In an even game any one mistake can turn a winners stat profile into a loser's.

Sunday's game matching the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts is just such a contest. If the two teams play to statistical form the electronic hardware projects an overtime game.

The teams' stat profiles are too close to make a meaningful projection.

For example, in the Dolphins' upset victory over the heavily favored Patriots, the Pats had a big lead on all of the key stats. But their usually reliable QB Brady threw four INTs.

Since each intercept debits a team's scoring differential 6 points these Ooops! plays cost the Pats 25 big ones. (See the stat graphics picture of the Pats/Dolphins post game stat analysis).

In this one game the Pat's stat profile typically goes hand-in-glove with a BIG win. Then the Pats tripped. It is not likely Coach Bill Belichick will repeat this error which led to a ONE-POINT LOSS.

How do these two Super Bowl contenders compare on key stat match ups?

The most important group of stats separating winners from losers can be labeled "passing efficiency." Colts' QB Manning is the league leader on our Killer Stat, Yards per Pass. Year in and out this yards per toss stat is always among the top stats separating winners from losers. (See a stat graphic picturing the Colt's and Pat's standings relative to the league.)

The Colts with golden armed QB Manning at the helm lead the league averaging 8.46 yards per toss. This season over last the Colts improved 4.85 points per game with the more experienced Manning (red bar graph). And typically teams with an 8 yards per toss average earn Super Bowl invites.

How does the Colts' offense match up with the Pats' vaunted pass D?

Yards per Pass Att Indianapolis Colts 2004 through Week 17

Opp Yds per Pass Att New England Patriots 2004 through Week 17

The Colts moving average improved all season (dark blue TREND line, top chart). And QB Manning is facing a Pats' depleted pass D. Absent two Pats' defensive starters the Colts' offense has an advantage of 6.6 points. (For a look at stats which lost most points for the Pats see the yearly graphic Opponent Pass Intercepted).

Last season the Pats' D led the league with almost 2 INTs per game. But the IR list took two D starters. Sunday they face Colts' MVP QB Manning. Since one INT costs almost a TD you can use the predict calculator to guestimate the impact on the winning margin. Will the Pat's D steal one INT? Or none?

Now check out both teams' weekly record for INTs this season.

Passes Had Intercpted Indianapolis Colts 2004 through Week 17

The stat graphic, above, shows the Colts can win even when they throw 2 INTS (Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans).

But the Pats did not steal ANY INTS in games against PIT and MIA (see graph, below)--and lost both games.

Opp Passes Intercepted New England Patriots 2004 through Week 17

This will be a great football game. To repeat--if we let the data speak for itself the game will go to overtime.

Bud Goode

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