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Panthers at Seahawks / Steelers at Broncos

Our most important Killer Stat separating winners from losers this year and last is Points per Pass Attempt. In the Championship game on Sunday this difference between offense and defense hit the bullseye with the four top teams: Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers leading the league and all in this Sunday's Wars.

Points per Pass Att Diff

Percentile Chart

100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest
Lines: Playoff Avg=67 SuperBowl Avg=78

Win Mrg Points Change

Winning Margin Points Change
Sorted by Points Change, 2004 to 2005
Rank Team Pctl Stat
Value
Points
behind
Leader
Win Mrg
Pts Chg
vs 2004
Games
Won
1 PIT 100 0.56 0.00 0.68 11
2 SEA 93 0.48 1.46 8.43 13
3 DEN 88 0.43 2.40 6.11 13
4 CAR 84 0.38 3.31 7.12 11
5 IND 82 0.37 3.59 0.10 14
6 CHI 72 0.25 5.67 7.65 11
7 S D 71 0.24 5.86 -4.34 9
8 NYG 68 0.21 6.42 6.01 11
9 K C 68 0.21 6.44 3.49 10
10 WAS 67 0.20 6.72 4.63 10
11 JAX 66 0.18 7.01 4.47 12
12 ATL 61 0.13 8.01 -1.48 8
13 CIN 59 0.11 8.42 2.36 11
14 T B 52 0.04 9.70 2.81 11
15 N E 51 0.03 9.88 -7.27 10
16 DAL 51 0.03 9.93 5.07 9
17 MIA 48 -0.01 10.56 6.41 9
18 MIN 44 -0.05 11.31 -1.00 9
19 BAL 40 -0.10 12.28 -4.58 6
20 S F 37 -0.13 12.87 6.24 4
21 BUF 36 -0.14 13.07 -7.74 5
22 CLE 33 -0.17 13.71 0.86 6
23 DET 28 -0.22 14.59 -2.85 5
24 STL 26 -0.24 14.97 0.12 6
25 NYJ 25 -0.26 15.27 -9.23 4
26 PHI 24 -0.27 15.55 -9.48 6
27 OAK 21 -0.30 16.04 0.37 4
28 G B 19 -0.32 16.54 -5.63 4
29 ARI 18 -0.33 16.60 -4.18 5
30 HOU 17 -0.34 16.84 -6.70 2
31 TEN 12 -0.39 17.83 -2.60 4
32 N O 0 -0.53 20.36 -8.01 3

2005 Season, YTD through Week 17

In season 2004 Steelers ranked 1st on Points per Pass Att Diff at 0.52.
In season 2005 they ranked 1st at 0.56, up 0.8 points per game on this one stat.
From 2004 to 2005 Steelers improved by 0.6 points per game on Winning Margin.

The Steelers lead the league earning three-quarters a point more on offense than their defense allows (0.74).

The Seahawks rank second behind the Steelers scoring 0.59 Points per Pass and are the MOST IMPROVED team on this Key Killer stat adding 11.08 Points per Game (PPG) to this year's winning margin.

The stat that contributed most points to the 'Hawks' rocket-like improvement is simple -- more pass completions. The statgraphic below pictures the tight correlation between the 'Hawks improvement in their scoring differential and QB Matt Hasselbeck's new golden arm.

Pct Comp(+QB Sacks) with Winning Margin
Yearly 2001 to 2005

Seattle Seahawks

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The second stat sending Coach Mike Holmgren's 'Hawks into the Championship game is First Downs Rushing. One running back can't change the world. But if there were one it would be RB Shaun Alexander whose 1880 yards led the league

Here's a stat graphic picturing the impact of RB Alexander's contribution to First Downs Rushing and the 'Hawk/s Winning Margin)

First Downs Rushing with Winning Margin
Yearly 2001 to 2005

Seattle Seahawks

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The Carolina Panthers face the Seahawks Sunday and their much improved rush D must stop RB Alexander. Otherwise the 'Hawks will control the clock and the Panthers will never see the ball.

Our goal in this stat research is to find the stats which best separate winners from losers. Points per Pass is a key Killer Stat. So when the Seahawks stronger on balance performance value (0.59) faces the Panthers' weaker performance value (0.46), letting the data speak for itself spells a Seahawk victory of 7-to-8 points.

The Pittsburgh Steelers with their league-leading 0.74 Points per Pass average weekly performance visit the Denver Broncos (0.46). Does it look like a Steeler victory? The electronic hardware suggests the game is a tossup.

Reason why? The Broncos' pass D is greatly improved over last season. The Broncos rank 1st in the league shutting down the pass forcing almost 17 incomplete tosses per contest. They added 5.1 points per game to their winning margin on this improvement.

Opp Incomp Passes with Winning Margin
Yearly 2002 to 2005

Denver Broncos

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The second pass D stat that favors the Broncos is Take Aways. They rank 4th in the league and have added 5.0 points per game on the D improvement.

Take Aways with Winning Margin
Yearly 1999 to 2005

Denver Broncos

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The Steelers' QB Ben Rothlesberger will have to be sharp at very high altitude in all passing efficiency stats. In the sense of letting all the data speak for itself, the objective scoring projection is Broncos by 3.

But in a very close game.

Bud Goode

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