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Super Bowl: Bears-Colts

The Colts lead the AFC throwing less than one intercept per game (0.56) and rank 2nd in the league. Tag enders, the Oakland Raiders and Cleveland Browns toss 1 1/2 INTs per game, a difference of roughly 300%. Ouch.


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By comparison the Bears young QB Grossman with most of the work, shows the Bears average 1.28 INTS. Big difference.

The cost of losing one intercept? How about a negative -5.5 points per game.

With parity increasing all of the teams are becoming more pass efficient. The lost INT this season correlates only 15% with offensive points scored vs 30% for last season. The difference is significant. Chances are a change this great is not due to chance or luck but would occur only once in 20 seasons.

With the Colts on offense facing a powerful Chicago D stealing 1.50 interceptions per game, the Bears earn an advantage of 0.6 points.


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When the Bears have the ball QB Grossman's 1.28 INT vs an Indy D grabbing better than one per game spells a Colt advantage of 1.1 points.

Bud Goode


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