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Super Bowl: Bears-Colts.

JUST MOVE THE STICKS

Listen up, you guys. Here's a Killer Stat we seldom discuss. But it correlates almost 70% with winning. Make that read "Winning BIG."

An old saw in the history of football, "...just move the sticks" goes back to the Knute Rockne era. Coach Bill Parcells used it in the Super Bowl which matched the NY Giants with Coach Marv Levy's Buffalo Bills. The backbone of this big game was a ball control pass offense which kept the Bills off the field and the Giants' offense in control of the clock.

Coach Parcells did not have playmakers like QB Kelly or RB Thurman Thomas. The Giants' personnel did not match Coach Levy's gang built over four Super Bowl appearances.

But his "...just move the sticks" rolled the clock and kept possession for 40 minutes. Hey, that's twice the remaining 20 minutes. And the Giants won the game by 1 point when the Bills missed a makeable last minute field goal.

Which team in tomorrow's Super Bowl has the edge on our "...move the sticks" ball control concept?

Plays/1st Down Differential

Percentile Chart

100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest
Lines: Playoff Avg=84 SuperBowl Avg=94

Win Mrg Points Change

Winning Margin Points Change
Sorted by Points Change, 2005 to 2006

Rank	Team	Pctl	Stat Value	Points behind Leader	Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2005	Games Won
1	CHI	100	-0.49	0.00	4.29	13
2	PIT	96	-0.44	0.39	0.40	8
3	N E	93	-0.40	0.74	1.89	12
4	JAX	92	-0.40	0.75	2.18	8
5	BAL	89	-0.36	1.09	3.70	13
6	DAL	83	-0.29	1.64	-0.29	9
7	N O	83	-0.29	1.64	1.52	10
8	S D	83	-0.29	1.65	0.49	14
9	IND	81	-0.26	1.89	-4.31	12
10	SEA	77	-0.21	2.32	-4.06	9
11	PHI	75	-0.19	2.48	2.08	10
12	CAR	70	-0.13	2.96	-1.19	8
13	K C	69	-0.11	3.11	-1.32	9
14	DEN	67	-0.09	3.30	-1.04	9
15	MIA	66	-0.08	3.35	3.70	6
16	NYG	65	-0.07	3.50	-0.21	8
17	WAS	59	0.01	4.10	-2.99	5
18	DET	53	0.08	4.73	2.90	3
19	CIN	51	0.10	4.83	-1.31	8
20	STL	48	0.13	5.15	-0.06	8
21	G B	46	0.16	5.38	-2.61	8
22	MIN	45	0.18	5.50	-2.02	6
23	OAK	42	0.21	5.80	-2.16	2
24	NYJ	40	0.24	5.99	0.95	10
25	HOU	39	0.25	6.12	6.30	6
26	ARI	36	0.28	6.33	-1.53	5
27	ATL	34	0.31	6.59	-1.52	7
28	CLE	34	0.31	6.62	0.68	4
29	BUF	29	0.37	7.08	1.81	7
30	TEN	27	0.39	7.28	0.04	8
31	S F	7	0.63	9.26	5.28	7
32	T B	0	0.72	9.96	-6.44	4

2006 Season, YTD through Week 17

In season 2005 Bears ranked 19th on Plays/1st Down Differential at 0.03.
In season 2006 they ranked 1st at -0.49, up 4.3 points per game on this one stat.
From 2005 to 2006 Bears improved by 7.1 points per game on Winning Margin.

Get ready for this one -- the Bears lead the league requiring 0.49 fewer plays than their opponents to move the sticks. Bears have an advantage of 3.4 points.
The stat graphic above pictures the key Plays per First Down stat which measures a lot of important stuff like "play error free ball," and "momentum" and "just get the job done."
It took Coach Lovey Smith just 2 seasons to build this efficient measure of importance. The yearly stat graphic below shows how quickly a team can get to the Big Game.

Plays/1st Down Differential with Winning Margin
Yearly 2001 to 2006
Chicago Bears

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Plays/1st Down Differential with Winning Margin
Yearly 2001 to 2006
Indianapolis Colts

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A most reliable indicator of a team's improvment the Bear's performance shows that in every recent season, when the plays per first down stat moves up or down the team's fortune moves with it.
How will the Bears and Colts perform on Super Bowl Sunday? The data will speak for itself.
Bud Goode

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