Super Bowl: Bears-Colts.

JUST MOVE THE STICKS

Listen up, you guys. Here's a Killer Stat we seldom discuss. But it correlates almost 70% with winning. Make that read "Winning BIG."

An old saw in the history of football, "...just move the sticks" goes back to the Knute Rockne era. Coach Bill Parcells used it in the Super Bowl which matched the NY Giants with Coach Marv Levy's Buffalo Bills. The backbone of this big game was a ball control pass offense which kept the Bills off the field and the Giants' offense in control of the clock.

Coach Parcells did not have playmakers like QB Kelly or RB Thurman Thomas. The Giants' personnel did not match Coach Levy's gang built over four Super Bowl appearances.

But his "...just move the sticks" rolled the clock and kept possession for 40 minutes. Hey, that's twice the remaining 20 minutes. And the Giants won the game by 1 point when the Bills missed a makeable last minute field goal.

Which team in tomorrow's Super Bowl has the edge on our "...move the sticks" ball control concept?

Get ready for this one -- the Bears lead the league requiring 0.49 fewer plays than their opponents to move the sticks. Bears have an advantage of 3.4 points.

The stat graphic above pictures the key Plays per First Down stat which measures a lot of important stuff like "play error free ball," and "momentum" and "just get the job done."

It took Coach Lovey Smith just 2 seasons to build this efficient measure of importance. The yearly stat graphic below shows how quickly a team can get to the Big Game.

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A most reliable indicator of a team's improvment the Bear's performance shows that in every recent season, when the plays per first down stat moves up or down the team's fortune moves with it.

How will the Bears and Colts perform on Super Bowl Sunday? The data will speak for itself.

Bud Goode

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