"The Number 1 Name for Statistical Analysis in Sports"

Colts at Ravens

The immovable object meets the unstoppable force Saturday when the Indianapolis Colts' offense visits the Baltimore Ravens' D.

With the Ravens on defense the key stat is QB sacks with the Ravens three D wildcats (Trevor Price, Scott and Suggs sharing 34 sacks) all chasing one scared rabbit (QB Manning).

Year in and out one QB sack contributes about 3 points to the scoring differential. On D, the Ravens have a 7-point edge.

The stat graphic below pictures the two teams on offense and defense.

Opp QB Sacked
Baltimore Ravens
2006 through Week 17

QB Sacks
Indianapolis Colts
2006 through Week 17

The Ravens' strongest game against the Pittsburgh Steelers shows the Raven QB wreckers rolling over QB Roethlisberger 8 times. Ouch. The Ravens' defensive army will have its sights set on one target. QB Manning.

Points per Pass Att Diff

Percentile Chart

100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest
Lines: Playoff Avg=69 SuperBowl Avg=82

Win Mrg Points Change

Winning Margin Points Change
Sorted by Points Change, 2005 to 2006

Rank	Team	Pctl	Stat Value	Points behind Leader	Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2005	Games Won
1	S D	100	0.49	0.00	4.50	14
2	CHI	89	0.39	1.83	2.49	13
3	JAX	81	0.31	3.35	2.26	8
4	BAL	78	0.28	3.88	6.81	13
5	N E	77	0.27	3.98	4.40	12
6	DAL	65	0.15	6.12	2.31	9
7	DEN	63	0.14	6.47	-5.31	9
8	CIN	61	0.12	6.82	0.16	8
9	K C	60	0.11	6.89	-1.82	9
10	PHI	60	0.11	7.00	6.86	10
11	NYJ	58	0.09	7.25	6.33	10
12	BUF	58	0.09	7.31	4.15	7
13	PIT	57	0.08	7.49	-8.65	8
14	ATL	55	0.06	7.78	-1.20	7
15	NYG	53	0.04	8.20	-3.17	8
16	N O	52	0.03	8.34	10.16	10
17	SEA	46	-0.02	9.34	-9.09	9
18	MIN	46	-0.02	9.37	0.39	6
19	TEN	45	-0.03	9.48	6.58	8
20	IND	38	-0.10	10.77	-8.46	12
21	CAR	37	-0.11	10.91	-8.88	8
22	WAS	36	-0.12	11.12	-5.79	5
23	S F	35	-0.12	11.19	0.08	7
24	MIA	35	-0.13	11.28	-2.25	6
25	ARI	31	-0.17	12.00	2.87	5
26	HOU	30	-0.17	12.04	3.06	6
27	STL	25	-0.22	13.01	0.28	8
28	G B	24	-0.23	13.16	1.65	8
29	CLE	22	-0.25	13.43	-1.35	4
30	DET	20	-0.27	13.78	-0.86	3
31	T B	15	-0.32	14.77	-6.57	4
32	OAK	0	-0.46	17.32	-2.99	2

2006 Season, YTD through Week 17

In season 2005 Ravens ranked 19th on Points per Pass Att Diff at -0.10.
In season 2006 they ranked 4th at 0.28, up 6.9 points per game on this one stat.
From 2005 to 2006 Ravens improved by 11.6 points per game on Winning Margin.

Our Killer Stat, Points per Pass, gives the edge again to the Ravens who ranked 4th in the league earning almost a third-of-a-point more on offense than their D allows.
By comparison the Colts efficient passing game rolled the clock but did little to help this key stat. Reason why? The more you throw the more you are sacked and intercepted.
The stat graphic above pictures their position relative to the league (rank 20th) with a below average -0.10 points per pass difference.
Last year the Steelers won the Super Bowl built around a strong ground game resulting in a powerful 0.6 points per pass. So the Colts' weakness on this key stat will cost them an added 3 points.
The electronic hardware scoring projection is Ravens by 8+.
Bud Goode

Copyright 2007, BudGoodeSports.com. All rights reserved.