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Chiefs at Colts

The rat-a-tat-tat sounds of gun fire echoing out of the Colts' stadium Saturday will be much like that of the Saint Valentine's Day Massacre. When Kansas City RB Larry Johnson's cleats start banging on the Colts' defensive helmets it will make a rapid-fire racket. Flack jackets are suggested for the front row fans.

When one of the best teams meets one of the weakest teams on a key stat it typically creates a record setting environment. And in this first round playoff game the most important stat separating winners from losers is Rushing Yards. On offense the Chiefs average 134 yards and face a puny Colts' rush D which gives up 173.

In the stat graphic below the Colts' rush D rests at the bottom of the ladder. They are the league's weakest. Ouch.

Opp Yds Rushing Net

Percentile Chart

100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest
Lines: Playoff Avg=57 SuperBowl Avg=58

Win Mrg Points Change

Winning Margin Points Change
Sorted by Points Change, 2005 to 2006

Rank	Team	Pctl	Stat Value	Points behind Leader	Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2005	Games Won
1	MIN	100	61.56	0.00	7.49	6
2	BAL	87	75.88	2.00	3.30	13
3	PIT	76	88.25	3.74	-0.32	8
4	JAX	73	91.25	4.16	2.18	8
5	N E	71	94.19	4.57	0.64	12
6	CHI	66	99.38	5.29	0.41	13
7	S D	65	100.81	5.50	-2.31	14
8	MIA	64	101.13	5.54	1.34	6
9	DAL	62	103.69	5.90	0.63	9
10	ATL	62	103.88	5.92	3.51	7
11	CAR	58	108.56	6.58	-2.38	8
12	DEN	54	113.31	7.25	-3.94	9
13	G B	53	114.06	7.35	1.62	8
14	NYG	53	114.38	7.39	-1.52	8
15	CIN	51	116.44	7.68	-0.06	8
16	ARI	49	118.56	7.98	-2.32	5
17	T B	48	119.81	8.16	-3.52	4
18	K C	47	120.50	8.25	-3.13	9
19	S F	47	121.00	8.32	-0.91	7
20	HOU	46	122.25	8.50	3.04	6
21	DET	43	125.63	8.97	0.26	3
22	SEA	41	126.81	9.14	-4.54	9
23	N O	40	128.94	9.43	0.72	10
24	NYJ	38	130.25	9.62	0.88	10
25	OAK	35	134.00	10.14	-0.83	2
26	PHI	33	136.38	10.47	-2.62	10
27	WAS	32	137.31	10.61	-4.47	5
28	BUF	29	140.88	11.10	-0.43	7
29	CLE	28	142.06	11.27	-0.62	4
30	TEN	26	144.56	11.62	-3.67	8
31	STL	25	145.44	11.74	-1.30	8
32	IND	0	173.00	15.60	-8.80	12

2006 Season, YTD through Week 17

In season 2005 Colts ranked 16th on Opp Yds Rushing Net at 110.13.
In season 2006 they ranked 32nd at 173.00, down 8.8 points per game on this one stat.
From 2005 to 2006 Colts declined by 7.8 points per game on Winning Margin.

The Colts have been weak on this rush D stat all season. The two stat graphics below picture the running game balance for both teams.

Yards Rushing (Net)
Kansas City Chiefs
2006 through Week 17

Opp Yds Rushing Net
Indianapolis Colts
2006 through Week 17

The difference in these two stats gives the Chiefs' offense a 7.5-point advantage.
Passing efficiency stats also belong to the Chiefs' offense. If they use a ball-control passing game each catch can be counted as a running play. Since the clock continues to roll with each rush the Chiefs could have 55 or more rushes plus completions--and dominate clock.
Remember the N Y Giants' Super Bowl Coach Bill Parcells ran up 40 minutes of clock time? Parcells kept Coach Marv Levy's superior play makers (QB Kelly and RB Thurman Thomas) on the sideline. They never saw the ball. It might just be a winning script for Coach Herm Edwards' Chiefs.
When the Colts have the ball QB Manning and WR Harrison will make their magic. But if their clock time is limited it is going to be a most interesting game decided on the final possesion.
Bud Goode

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