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Patriots at Chargers

When the New England Patriots visit San Diego Sunday they will be facing one of the great running backs of all time. The Chargers' LaDainian Tomlinson has it all -- speed, "hands" and more moves than a water bed.

On ESPN Coach Mike Ditka said, "If it comes to choosing the genius of Coach Bill Bellichick over the abilities of running back Tomlinson, I choose Tomlinson."

The stat graphic below pictures the most important stat separating winners from losers, Points Per Pass Attempt. The balance between offense and defense accounts for 95% of the game. It is both a measure of passing efficiency and the clock control running game.

Points per Pass Att Diff

Percentile Chart

100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest
Lines: Playoff Avg=69 SuperBowl Avg=82

Win Mrg Points Change

Winning Margin Points Change
Sorted by Points Change, 2005 to 2006

Rank	Team	Pctl	Stat Value	Points behind Leader	Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2005	Games Won
1	S D	100	0.49	0.00	4.50	14
2	CHI	89	0.39	1.83	2.49	13
3	JAX	81	0.31	3.35	2.26	8
4	BAL	78	0.28	3.88	6.81	13
5	N E	77	0.27	3.98	4.40	12
6	DAL	65	0.15	6.12	2.31	9
7	DEN	63	0.14	6.47	-5.31	9
8	CIN	61	0.12	6.82	0.16	8
9	K C	60	0.11	6.89	-1.82	9
10	PHI	60	0.11	7.00	6.86	10
11	NYJ	58	0.09	7.25	6.33	10
12	BUF	58	0.09	7.31	4.15	7
13	PIT	57	0.08	7.49	-8.65	8
14	ATL	55	0.06	7.78	-1.20	7
15	NYG	53	0.04	8.20	-3.17	8
16	N O	52	0.03	8.34	10.16	10
17	SEA	46	-0.02	9.34	-9.09	9
18	MIN	46	-0.02	9.37	0.39	6
19	TEN	45	-0.03	9.48	6.58	8
20	IND	38	-0.10	10.77	-8.46	12
21	CAR	37	-0.11	10.91	-8.88	8
22	WAS	36	-0.12	11.12	-5.79	5
23	S F	35	-0.12	11.19	0.08	7
24	MIA	35	-0.13	11.28	-2.25	6
25	ARI	31	-0.17	12.00	2.87	5
26	HOU	30	-0.17	12.04	3.06	6
27	STL	25	-0.22	13.01	0.28	8
28	G B	24	-0.23	13.16	1.65	8
29	CLE	22	-0.25	13.43	-1.35	4
30	DET	20	-0.27	13.78	-0.86	3
31	T B	15	-0.32	14.77	-6.57	4
32	OAK	0	-0.46	17.32	-2.99	2

2006 Season, YTD through Week 17

In season 2005 Chargers ranked 7th on Points per Pass Att Diff at 0.24.
In season 2006 they ranked 1st at 0.49, up 4.5 points per game on this one stat.
From 2005 to 2006 Chargers improved by 5.2 points per game on Winning Margin.

The Chargers lead the league earning almost a half-point (0.49) more on offense than they do on D.
By comparison, the Patriots rank 5th near one-quarter point per game (0.27).
In a game-by-game comparison the stat graphic below pictures how the Pats and Chargers did this season:

Points per Pass Att Diff
San Diego Chargers
2006 through Week 17

Points per Pass Att Diff
New England Patriots
2006 through Week 17

Both teams played weak divisional schedules. And Coach Belichick holds his cards close to his vest. But the Pats lost all 5 games where they fell below average (light blue line).
By comparison the Chargers lost one game where they fell below average (New Orleans) and one game where they played at the league average (Chiefs).
Based on the team profile of stats the electronic hardware projects a 5-6 point edge for the Chargers.
Bud Goode

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