Saints at Bears

This week the Saints roll into Chicago armed with a powerful passing attack. The chart below shows the performance on yards per pass attempt, our Killer Stat. Saints got stonger as the season progressed as seen by the rising dark blue team average line. Saints had many games at 8, 9 and 10 yards per attempt (championship level), as QB Brees showed the ability to connect with a 5 sure-handed receivers, including the great Saint running backs.

Yards per Pass Att New Orleans Saints 2006 through Week 17

The Bears led the leauge on many defensive stats. The stat graphic below pictures the Bears' stingy pass D (well below the light blue league average line). On our key passing efficiency killer stat the Saints earn an advantage of 1.5 points.

Opp Yds per Pass Att Chicago Bears 2006 through Week 17

The passing game also plays a key roll when the Bears have the ball. With young QB Grossman hitting few receivers Bears' passing performance weakened as the season progressed (declining dark blue team trend line). In almost half the Bears' games their yards per attempt stat fell at or below league average.

Yards per Pass Att Chicago Bears 2006 through Week 17

On offense Bears face a capable Saints' pass D with only two poor performances all year (losses to Steelers and Bengals mid-season):

Opp Yds per Pass Att New Orleans Saints 2006 through Week 17

Unless Chicago Coach Smith can pull some magic out of the hat it looks like a tough day for Grossman and the Bears. Although the computer projects the Bears by 7 it doesn't consider the declining trend in the Bears' pass offense. We think it will much closer and could swing on which team can better control the ball at the end of each half. Like other playoff games, this could be decided by one exceptional play.

Bud Goode

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