Saints at Bears
This week the Saints roll into Chicago armed with a powerful
passing attack. The chart below shows the performance on yards per
pass attempt, our Killer Stat. Saints got stonger as the season
progressed as seen by the rising dark blue team average line. Saints had
many games at 8, 9 and 10 yards per attempt (championship level), as QB Brees showed the ability
to connect with a 5 sure-handed receivers, including the great Saint running backs.
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The Bears led the leauge on many defensive stats. The stat graphic below pictures
the Bears' stingy pass D (well below the light blue league average line). On our key passing
efficiency killer stat the Saints earn an advantage of 1.5 points.
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The passing game also plays a key roll when the Bears have the ball. With young QB Grossman hitting few receivers
Bears' passing performance weakened as the season progressed (declining dark blue team trend line). In almost half
the Bears' games their yards per attempt stat fell at or below league average.
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On offense Bears face a capable Saints' pass D with only two poor performances all year
(losses to Steelers and Bengals mid-season):
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Unless Chicago Coach Smith can pull some magic out of the hat it looks like a tough day for Grossman
and the Bears. Although the computer projects the Bears by 7 it doesn't consider the declining
trend in the Bears' pass offense. We think it will much closer and could swing on which team
can better control the ball at the end of each half. Like other playoff games, this could be
decided by one exceptional play.
Bud Goode
Copyright 2007, BudGoodeSports.com. All rights reserved.
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