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Jaguars at Patriots

KILLER STATS, by definition, separate winners from losers. And Yards per Pass Attempt has long been our favorite "killer."

When the New England Patriots meet the Jacksonville Jaguars this week the Pats' QB Brady, league-leader earning 7.9 yards per toss, has been a phenom this season. He and WR Randy Moss are record setters. They are super, awesome and totally awesome.

It doesn't look like you can beat 'em.

Outstanding passing efficiency is the principle ingredient in Coach Bill Belichick's package. In his early 2001 season the Pats' group of passing stats improved on the following key efficiency measures: Points per Pass added 7.6 points (most improved team); minimized Incomplete passes and maximized D Incompletions (league leader) adding 6.8 points per game; and Completion Percentage on offense and defense (league's 3rd-most improved) added 5.5 points.

In a statistical sense these stats all measure the same thing (passing efficiency). So they can't be added together. Combined, they contributed about 75% of the total Scoring Differential improvement (10.6 PPG).

'Nuff said. Coach Belichick has been has been in football since he was ten yeas old and his father was a coach at Annapolis. He knows every nuance of the game.

In this current 2007 season the Pats' pass efficiency stats jumped again from 8th to 1st on our Killer Stat, Yars per Pass Atempt, adding almost 7 points (70% of their 10-point Winning Margin improvement).

How does this statistical profile impact the Jacksonville Jaguars' game on Sunday? The stat graphic below pictures the Pats' yards per toss performance on offense facing the Jacksonville D:

Yards per Pass Att

New England Patriots

2007 through Week 17


On Yards per Pass Attempt, their Number One Killer Stat, they were weaker than average (light blue line) in only ONE game.

By comparison, the Jags' pass D was average, near average or weaker than average in 10 games (below).

On this one stat, the Pats have a 5 1/2 point advantage.

Opp Yds per Pass Att

Jacksonville Jaguars

2007 through Week 17


See also our stat graphic of the Pats-Jags stat Matchup. Note, with the Pats on offense, Yards per Pass is at the top of the list.

Bud Goode

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