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SUPER BOWL: Giants vs Patriots

What is important in PRO FOOTBALL? New England Patriots' owner Robert Kraft brandishing his 3 Super Bowl victories in Coach Bill Belichick's first 4 seasons said yesterday on CNBC-TV, "WINNING!", he replied. " Winning is important."

And what does WINNING DEPEND ON? In the sense of "REASON WHY" journalism winning depends on scoring points on offense and allowing fewest points on D.

The stat graphic below pictures the 2007 season performance for both the Patriots and Giants on Offensive TDs Scored. The Pats lead the league earning 4.69 TDs per game. As an aside in Coach Belichick's first season the Patriots were the league's most improved team on TDs scored adding almost 7 points to their scoring differetial

By comparison the Giants rank 12th earning 2.75. On the most important DEPENDENT stat (which projects a teams WON/LOST record) the Patriots almost double the N Y Giants' effort.

Touchdowns Scored

Percentile Chart

100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest
Lines: Playoff Avg=44 SuperBowl Avg=44

Win Mrg Points Change

Winning Margin Points Change
Sorted by Points Change, 2006 to 2007
Rank Team Pctl Stat
Value 		Points
behind
Leader 		Win Mrg
Pts Chg
vs 2006 		Games
Won
1 N E 100 4.69 0.00 11.84 16
2 IND 59 3.38 8.57 1.63 13
3 DAL 59 3.38 8.57 0.82 13
4 JAX 51 3.13 10.20 3.27 11
5 G B 49 3.06 10.61 6.94 13
6 S D 49 3.06 10.61 -4.08 11
7 ARI 49 3.06 10.61 6.53 8
8 N O 45 2.94 11.43 -0.82 7
9 PIT 43 2.88 11.84 1.63 10
10 CLE 43 2.88 11.84 8.57 10
11 SEA 39 2.75 12.65 2.86 10
12 NYG 39 2.75 12.65 1.22 10
13 HOU 37 2.69 13.06 5.31 8
14 MIN 37 2.69 13.06 4.49 8
15 CIN 33 2.56 13.88 -0.82 7
16 PHI 27 2.38 15.10 -4.49 8
17 DET 25 2.31 15.51 2.45 7
18 T B 24 2.25 15.92 5.31 9
19 WAS 22 2.19 16.33 0.41 9
20 CHI 20 2.13 16.73 -5.31 7
21 DEN 20 2.13 16.73 0.00 7
22 OAK 12 1.88 18.37 5.71 4
23 MIA 10 1.81 18.77 1.22 1
24 BAL 8 1.75 19.18 -4.08 5
25 CAR 8 1.75 19.18 0.00 7
26 TEN 8 1.75 19.18 -3.27 10
27 STL 6 1.69 19.59 -4.90 3
28 NYJ 4 1.63 20.00 -3.67 4
29 ATL 4 1.63 20.00 -2.45 4
30 BUF 2 1.56 20.41 -3.27 7
31 K C 0 1.50 20.81 -5.31 4
32 S F 0 1.50 20.81 -2.45 5

2007 Season, YTD through Week 17
In season 2006 Patriots ranked 7th on Touchdowns Scored at 2.88.
In season 2007 they ranked 1st at 4.69, up 11.8 points per game on this one stat.
From 2006 to 2007 Patriots improved by 10.4 points per game on Winning Margin.


The stat graphic above pictures the key stat on offense, TDs scored. The New England Patriots are head and shoulders over the league earning 4.69 TDs per game. The Indianapolis Colts rank second but are 9.2 Points per Game behind the Pats.

The wildcard New York Giants rank 12th and are 13.6 PPG behind the leader.

Since Coach Bill Belichick took over at the Patriots in 2000 the Pats have been on the upswing. Inheriting a modest 1 1/2 TDs per game their offense has rocketed skyward. The stat graphic below pictures their improvement.

Touchdowns Scored with Winning Margin
Yearly 2000 to 2007

New England Patriots

In season 2006 Patriots ranked 7th on Touchdowns Scored at 2.88.
In season 2007 they ranked 1st at 4.69, up 11.82 points per game on this one stat.
From 2006 to 2007 Patriots improved by 10.4 points per game on Winning Margin.

What is interesting about this graphic? It is far easier to come off a losing season and with the reverse draft add key playmakers. With new personnel they suddenly become winners. Example: The Saints did it 2 years ago. They played an easy schedule and won big. (Note: Level of opposition accounts for about 20% of a team's Won/Lost record).

This season Coach Bill Belichick did it the hard way. The Patriots started with a high-altitude, winning, Super Bowl stat profile and still added almost 13 PPG on offense. As the graphic shows they improved more than any other team.

Touchdowns Scored with Winning Margin
Yearly 2002 to 2007

New York Giants

In season 2006 Giants ranked 11th on Touchdowns Scored at 2.56.
In season 2007 they ranked 11th at 2.75, up 1.24 points per game on this one stat.
From 2006 to 2007 Giants improved by 1.8 points per game on Winning Margin.

As a wildcard team the New York Giants can be competitive (wildcard teams have been Super Bowl winners in the past). But on this key stat, TDs scored on offense, the Giants rank 12th. This performance is below league average (black vertical line marks 50th percentile).

The Giants, ranking 12th are 13 1/2 points behind the Patriots. On offense, if the two teams play to form the Giants will not be competitive.

(If you would like to compare your favorite team with the Patriots and Giants see the yearly charts picture of the linkage or association between TDs scored difference and winning margin).

Compare Coach Belichik's Patriots with your home team's performance.

Coach Belichick is not yet finished with his job of achieving perfect performance. When the Pats are healthy they continue to improve. Even in the two seasons (where the graphic pictures a weakened team with a long IR list) they still carried a Super Bowl stat profile. With injuries, their stat profile weakened. But they were winners.

Bud Goode

PS: Look for our Killer Stat feature tomorrow and daily up to the big game, Feb 3.

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