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SUPER BOWL: Giants vs Patriots, Yards per Pass Attempt

Once again in the 2007 season, the one independent stat which best separates winners from losers is Yards per Pass Attempt. The difference between what the Patriots and Giants earn on offense less the yards per toss they allow correlates 80% with the scoring differential (increased over 70% for last year). This stat has long been our number on Killer Stat.

And the stat graphic below pictures the reason why the Patriots are tough to defeat.

Yds/Pass Att Differential

Percentile Chart

100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest
Lines: Playoff Avg=68 SuperBowl Avg=74

Win Mrg Points Change

Winning Margin Points Change
Sorted by Points Change, 2006 to 2007

Rank	Team	Pctl	Stat Value	Points behind Leader	Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2006	Games Won
1	N E	100	2.49	0.00	6.90	16
2	DAL	89	1.95	1.80	4.38	13
3	IND	85	1.77	2.38	0.10	13
4	G B	76	1.35	3.77	4.83	13
5	PIT	76	1.34	3.81	2.63	10
6	T B	72	1.17	4.40	9.04	9
7	WAS	66	0.86	5.42	5.27	9
8	JAX	64	0.77	5.73	0.76	11
9	SEA	61	0.61	6.24	3.81	10
10	TEN	60	0.59	6.31	5.43	10
11	CLE	59	0.53	6.51	5.18	10
12	ARI	58	0.49	6.65	2.57	8
13	HOU	57	0.44	6.82	5.36	8
14	S D	56	0.38	7.02	-2.87	11
15	DEN	53	0.25	7.45	1.35	7
16	CIN	52	0.22	7.56	-0.53	7
17	PHI	48	0.00	8.28	-5.90	8
18	NYG	41	-0.30	9.27	0.71	10
19	MIN	41	-0.32	9.36	1.30	8
20	DET	39	-0.41	9.63	1.01	7
21	N O	35	-0.60	10.28	-8.30	7
22	BUF	30	-0.84	11.08	-3.56	7
23	CHI	29	-0.88	11.20	-6.51	7
24	K C	28	-0.92	11.35	-2.78	4
25	NYJ	27	-0.99	11.57	-4.47	4
26	CAR	26	-1.03	11.71	-4.00	7
27	ATL	26	-1.04	11.74	1.62	4
28	STL	20	-1.32	12.69	-4.15	3
29	OAK	19	-1.37	12.86	-1.00	4
30	BAL	11	-1.72	14.02	-9.26	5
31	MIA	10	-1.78	14.20	-4.83	1
32	S F	0	-2.26	15.81	-4.62	5

2007 Season, YTD through Week 17

In season 2006 Patriots ranked 10th on Yds/Pass Att Differential at 0.42.
In season 2007 they ranked 1st at 2.49, up 6.9 points per game on this one stat.
From 2006 to 2007 Patriots improved by 10.4 points per game on Winning Margin.

The Patriots lead the league earning 2 1/2 Yards per Pass more on offense than their D allows. In addition, New England, which started the season with a high Super Bowl statistical profile are surprisingly the 2nd most improved team adding 6.90 points per game (PPG) to their scoring differential.
The addition of WR Randy Moss to the lineup was a gold star on the helmet of the Pats' people getters. Their personnel department knows talent. WR Randy Moss is the best.
So it is likely QB Brady will be hitting Moss and WR Welker and some surprise receivers suddenly in the open. In the season's final game, facing the Giants, Coach Belichick did not, repeat did NOT show any cards.
Belichick almost always brings something unexpected to the play mix.
On this one stat, the Patriots' offense has a 5.6-point advantage. Have a look at the Patriots-Giants stat matchups with their associated Points Advantage.
At the top of the Pats' offense facing the Giants' D, Yards per Pass is the top Killer Stat worth almost 6 points in the Winning Margin.
Here's a look at the two teams relative positions within their divisions.

Yards per Pass Att

Percentile Chart
100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest
Lines: Playoff Avg=82 SuperBowl Avg=77
Win Mrg Points Change
Winning Margin Points Change
Sorted by Points Change, 2006 to 2007

AFC East
2007 Season, YTD through Week 17

Rank Team Pctl Stat
Value Points
behind
Leader Win Mrg
Pts Chg
vs 2006 Games
Won
1 N E 100 7.79 0.00 6.04 16
21 BUF 41 5.59 7.93 -0.35 7
26 NYJ 34 5.33 8.85 -2.54 4
29 MIA 27 5.10 9.70 -0.36 1

In season 2006 Patriots ranked 12th on Yards per Pass Att at 6.12.
In season 2007 they ranked 1st at 7.79, up 6.0 points per game on this one stat.
From 2006 to 2007 Patriots improved by 10.4 points per game on Winning Margin.

Yards per Pass Att

Percentile Chart
100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest
Lines: Playoff Avg=82 SuperBowl Avg=77
Win Mrg Points Change
Winning Margin Points Change
Sorted by Points Change, 2006 to 2007

NFC East
2007 Season, YTD through Week 17

Rank Team Pctl Stat
Value Points
behind
Leader Win Mrg
Pts Chg
vs 2006 Games
Won
2 DAL 89 7.38 1.48 1.15 13
15 WAS 58 6.25 5.56 0.22 9
18 PHI 52 6.00 6.46 -4.33 8
22 NYG 39 5.51 8.21 -0.24 10

In season 2006 Giants ranked 23rd on Yards per Pass Att at 5.58.
In season 2007 they ranked 22nd at 5.51, down 0.3 points per game on this one stat.
From 2006 to 2007 Giants improved by 1.8 points per game on Winning Margin.

The Patriots lead their division head and shoulders over the Bills, Jets and Dolphins.
By comparison, the Giants are stuck like mud at the bottom of the NFC East. Their season moving average on this key yards per toss stat (dark blue line) barely went over league average (light blue line) ending the season weaker than league average.

Yards per Pass Att
New York Giants
2007 through Week 21

The Giants lost 6 games. And 4 of the 6 (two thirds) their pass offense was below league average.
How does our stat research define "importance?" Click the link just below to look at all 32 teams which picture the relationship or linkage of yards per toss differential with the scoring differential.
32-team yearly charts of Yards Per Pass Attempt Differential.
In general, years in which the team performance improves (RED area part of chart) the Winning Margin improves (BLUE line). And years in which the yards per toss stat declines (RED area) the scoring differential collapses (BLUE line).
Check your favorite team in comparison to the Patriots and the Giants.
The Dolphins, for example fell into the basement along with the Falcons, Broncos, Ravens, Chiefs and Raiders. Ouch.
This season, as in most years, Yards per Pass Attempt (differential) is our stat research group's number one Killer Stat. It became more important than the prior year with WR Randy Moss doing his circus act at the Pats.
He is worth his weight in bright, shiny gold. Randy is one neat dude.
Bud Goode
Copyright 2007, BudGoodeSports.com. All rights reserved.