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SUPER BOWL: Giants vs Patriots, Turnover Differential

Turnovers win and lose games; as they should. The pass interception contributes negatively to the team's scoring differential about 6 points per game and the lost fumble contributes more than 3 points. Intercepts and fumbles are mistakes. And in the game of life mistakes kill'ya.

So add to your Killer Stats list lost fumbles and interceptions. The stat graphic below pictures the New England Patriots and New York Giants 2007 season performances (RED Points Change column shows the Pats improved this season and the Giants lost ground).

Turnover Differential

Percentile Chart

100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest
Lines: Playoff Avg=50 SuperBowl Avg=60

Win Mrg Points Change

Winning Margin Points Change
Sorted by Points Change, 2006 to 2007
Rank Team Pctl Stat
Value
Points
behind
Leader
Win Mrg
Pts Chg
vs 2006
Games
Won
1 S D 100 1.50 0.00 2.90 11
2 IND 85 1.13 1.58 2.90 13
3 N E 80 1.00 2.11 2.11 16
4 T B 78 0.94 2.37 6.86 9
5 SEA 66 0.63 3.69 4.75 10
6 JAX 63 0.56 3.96 2.11 11
7 BUF 63 0.56 3.96 3.43 7
8 CIN 54 0.31 5.01 -0.53 7
9 DAL 54 0.31 5.01 1.06 13
10 ATL 51 0.25 5.28 -0.53 4
11 G B 51 0.25 5.28 1.06 13
12 PIT 49 0.19 5.54 2.90 10
13 DEN 44 0.06 6.07 0.26 7
14 CAR 44 0.06 6.07 1.58 7
15 MIN 44 0.06 6.07 -0.79 8
16 TEN 41 0.00 6.33 -0.53 10
17 CHI 39 -0.06 6.59 -2.37 7
18 DET 39 -0.06 6.59 2.11 7
19 CLE 37 -0.13 6.86 3.43 10
20 NYJ 32 -0.25 7.39 -1.06 4
21 WAS 29 -0.31 7.65 0.00 9
22 MIA 24 -0.44 8.18 -2.37 1
23 N O 24 -0.44 8.18 -0.79 7
24 ARI 24 -0.44 8.18 -2.64 8
25 PHI 22 -0.50 8.44 -3.43 8
26 NYG 20 -0.56 8.70 -2.37 10
27 STL 17 -0.63 8.97 -6.33 3
28 OAK 15 -0.69 9.23 3.17 4
29 K C 15 -0.69 9.23 -3.96 4
30 S F 12 -0.75 9.50 -1.85 5
31 HOU 10 -0.81 9.76 -2.64 8
32 BAL 0 -1.06 10.81 -8.97 5

2007 Season, YTD through Week 17

In season 2006 Patriots ranked 4th on Turnover Differential at 0.50.
In season 2007 they ranked 3rd at 1.00, up 2.1 points per game on this one stat.
From 2006 to 2007 Patriots improved by 10.4 points per game on Winning Margin.


The Patriots,are near the top (3rd) stealing one turnover per game more on D than their offense loses.

By comparison, the Giants are near the bottom (26th) averaging a negative -0.5 per game.

If the Super Bowl is played to statistical form, on offense the Pats have a 3.8 advantage in fumbles and a 3.6 point edge on INTs.

On D, facing the Giants offense New York has the advantage but only by a 1-point edge on both Fumbles and INTs.

Patriots on Offense

Offense/Defense Independant Offense Defense Advantage Points
Matchup Variable Name N E NYG Patriots Giants Advantage
N E Off vs NYG Def Yards per Pass Att - I 7.86 5.98 5.6   N E
N E Off vs NYG Def Fum Lost This Year - I 0.33 0.58 3.8   N E
N E Off vs NYG Def Passes Had Intercpted - I 0.67 1.05 3.6   N E
N E Off vs NYG Def QB Sacks - I 1.33 2.84 0.5   N E
N E Off vs NYG Def Yards per Touchdown - P 110.61 168.47 0.5   NYG
N E Off vs NYG Def Total Rushing Plays - I 28.39 25.21 1.2   NYG

With Patriots on offense and Giants on defense the most important independant stat
is Yards per Pass Att where Patriots have an advantage of 5.6 points.

Offense/Defense Dependant Offense Defense Advantage Points
Matchup Variable Name N E NYG Patriots Giants Advantage
N E Off vs NYG Def Total Points Scored - D 35.61 21.16 9.7   N E

Patriots on Defense

Defense/Offense Independant Defense Offense Advantage Points
Matchup Variable Name N E NYG Patriots Giants Advantage
N E Def vs NYG Off Yards per Pass Att - I 5.57 5.65 3.1   N E
N E Def vs NYG Off Total Rushing Plays - I 22.44 29.53 2.3   N E
N E Def vs NYG Off QB Sacks - I 2.72 1.79 0.5   N E
N E Def vs NYG Off Yards per Touchdown - P 156.59 171.25 0  
N E Def vs NYG Off Passes Had Intercpted - I 1.22 1.05 0.9   NYG
N E Def vs NYG Off Fum Lost This Year - I 0.72 0.79 0.9   NYG

With Patriots on defense and Giants on offense the most important stat
is Yards per Pass Att where Patriots have an advantage of 3.1 points.

Offense/Defense Dependant Defense Offense Advantage Points
Matchup Variable Name N E NYG Patriots Giants Advantage
N E Def vs NYG Off Total Points Scored - D 17 23.21 6.8   N E


The stat graphics picturing the two teams' relative position in their DIVISION is interesting.

New England leads their AFC East with a stat performance well over the Super Bowl and Playoff AVERAGES (BLACK vertical lines).

Turnover Differential

Percentile Chart

100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest
Lines: Playoff Avg=51 SuperBowl Avg=60

Win Mrg Points Change

Winning Margin Points Change
Sorted by Points Change, 2008 to 2009

AFC East

2009 Season, YTD through Week 8

Rank Team Pctl Stat
Value
Points
behind
Leader
Win Mrg
Pts Chg
vs 2008
Games
Won
3 N E 86 1.29 1.81 5.16 5
11 BUF 57 0.38 5.65 3.69 3
17 NYJ 45 0.00 7.23 0.26 4
21 MIA 35 -0.29 8.44 -5.69 3

In season 2008 Patriots ranked 15th on Turnover Differential at 0.06.
In season 2009 they ranked 3rd at 1.29, up 5.2 points per game on this one stat.
From 2008 to 2009 Patriots improved by 8.0 points per game on Winning Margin.

Turnover Differential

Percentile Chart

100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest
Lines: Playoff Avg=51 SuperBowl Avg=60

Win Mrg Points Change

Winning Margin Points Change
Sorted by Points Change, 2008 to 2009

NFC East

2009 Season, YTD through Week 8

Rank Team Pctl Stat
Value
Points
behind
Leader
Win Mrg
Pts Chg
vs 2008
Games
Won
1 PHI 100 1.71 0.00 6.44 5
16 NYG 49 0.13 6.71 -1.85 5
18 DAL 40 -0.14 7.84 2.30 5
31 WAS 8 -1.14 12.06 -4.82 2

In season 2008 Giants ranked 5th on Turnover Differential at 0.56.
In season 2009 they ranked 16th at 0.13, down 1.8 points per game on this one stat.
From 2008 to 2009 Giants declined by 4.7 points per game on Winning Margin.


By comparison the N Y Giants rank at te bottom of their division.

So how did they do so well in their final few games?

Reaching for a logical answer...the suggestion is made that in the season's final games QB Manning's passing attack got lucky.

That's an opinion.

Bud Goode

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