BudGoodeSports.com

"The Number 1 Name for Statistical Analysis in Sports"

SUPER BOWL: Giants vs Patriots, Rushes--Clock Control

If the Patriots are going to run against the hefty NY Giants rush D then they can take a paragraph out of the game the Giants played against the Vikings in week 11. The Vikes' rookie RB of the Year, Peterson, was in the middle of a contest that ran the ball 33 times for each 10 pass attempts. The ratio of 33-to-10 is 3.3-to-1. At this level it is a Killer Stat.

The stat graphic below pictures the Giants' weekly chart with this Gee Whiz performance a standout.

Opp Rush/Opp Pass Att
New York Giants
2007 through Week 17

The Run/Pass balance is a powerful stat contributing 12 1/2 points to your team's scoring differential on a simple ONE UNIT change. What does that mean? If you move from a balanced attack (1-to-1 league average) up a notch to 2-to-1, your team will add 12 1/2 points to the scoring differential. That's neat.

On defense the Patriots have a 2.3-point advantage. When the Giants face the Pats' D they have a 1.2-point edge.

Patriots on Offense

Offense/Defense	Independant	Offense	Defense	Advantage		Points
Matchup	Variable Name	N E	NYG	Patriots	Giants	Advantage
N E Off vs NYG Def	Yards per Pass Att - I	7.86	5.98			5.6 N E
N E Off vs NYG Def	Fum Lost This Year - I	0.33	0.58			3.8 N E
N E Off vs NYG Def	Passes Had Intercpted - I	0.67	1.05			3.6 N E
N E Off vs NYG Def	QB Sacks - I	1.33	2.84			0.5 N E
N E Off vs NYG Def	Yards per Touchdown - P	110.61	168.47			0.5 NYG
N E Off vs NYG Def	Total Rushing Plays - I	28.39	25.21			1.2 NYG

With Patriots on offense and Giants on defense the most important independant stat
is Yards per Pass Att where Patriots have an advantage of 5.6 points.

Offense/Defense Dependant Offense Defense Advantage Points

Matchup Variable Name N E NYG Patriots Giants Advantage

N E Off vs NYG Def Total Points Scored - D 35.61 21.16 9.7 N E

Patriots on Defense

Defense/Offense	Independant	Defense	Offense	Advantage		Points
Matchup	Variable Name	N E	NYG	Patriots	Giants	Advantage
N E Def vs NYG Off	Yards per Pass Att - I	5.57	5.65			3.1 N E
N E Def vs NYG Off	Total Rushing Plays - I	22.44	29.53			2.3 N E
N E Def vs NYG Off	QB Sacks - I	2.72	1.79			0.5 N E
N E Def vs NYG Off	Yards per Touchdown - P	156.59	171.25			0
N E Def vs NYG Off	Passes Had Intercpted - I	1.22	1.05			0.9 NYG
N E Def vs NYG Off	Fum Lost This Year - I	0.72	0.79			0.9 NYG

With Patriots on defense and Giants on offense the most important stat
is Yards per Pass Att where Patriots have an advantage of 3.1 points.

Offense/Defense Dependant Defense Offense Advantage Points

Matchup Variable Name N E NYG Patriots Giants Advantage

N E Def vs NYG Off Total Points Scored - D 17 23.21 6.8 N E

Summary: The Giants' pass rush may lose control if they can't get to QB Brady. And they must keep the clock rolling to keep Brady and his magic receivers off the field.

The Patriots have more playmakers than the Giants. The electronic hardware projection: Patriots by 15 1/2.

Bud Goode