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Chargers at Patriots

When the San Diego Chargers visit the New England Patriots for the AFC Championship game the stats most likely to separate winner from loser will be measures of PASSING EFFICIENCY.

One of these, Percent TDs per Pass, (one of the four QB Rating stats) has been a hallmark of the Pats' undefeated string of victories.

QB Brady throwing to WR Moss is a circus act. It is also a stroke of genius on Coach Bill Belichick's decision to invite Randy Moss to come on board. Every four completions to Moss led to touchdowns. Add to this downfield threat RB Wes Welker who repeats this circus act on shorter routes and is equally efficient in producing scores.

Compare this effort with the league's next most efficient receivers and you see a huge gap between the top ranked guy and the next best (only one TD for each 10 completions).

Is the Patriots' passing game very, very good? More than that. It's record setting. And possibly it will never be equaled.

The stat graphic below pictures the Patriots' performance since Coach Belichick came on board. With three super Bowl victories in the first four seasons the Pats have been stronger than average (yellow line) every year. Even last season the Pats had Super Bowl level ability but crash landed when their leading receiver dropped two balls in the San Diego Chargers playoff game. He was replaced by Randy Moss.

Pct TDs per Pass with Winning Margin
Yearly 2002 to 2007

New England Patriots

In season 2006 Patriots ranked 8th on Pct TDs per Pass at 4.50.
In season 2007 they ranked 1st at 8.24, up 7.48 points per game on this one stat.
From 2006 to 2007 Patriots improved by 10.4 points per game on Winning Margin.

The Chargers' passing efficiency stats came alive after the first four weeks of the season when they lost 3 and won only 1 game. Finally against the Denver Broncos in week 5 QB Rivers earned almost 16 yards per toss. Since league average is near 6 yards per pass it was our Stat of the Week feature and set a season record for the Chargers who won the game by 38 points.

The stat graphic below shows the performance and the fact that from the 5th week on their moving average (dark blue line) never fell below league average (light blue line).

Yards per Pass Att

San Diego Chargers

2007 through Week 17


Last week, facing the depleted pass D of the Indianapolis Colts QB Rivers earned almost 14 yards per pass, second best performance on the season. While the Colts' QB Manning earned a champ level 8.4 yards (usually a champ performance) the difference was so great it was the leading cause of defeat for the Colts knocking them out of the playoffs.

How will the Chargers and Pats perform in this week's game? If the two teams play to statistical form the electronic hardware favors Coach Belichick's Patriots. His passing efficiency stat profile ranks FIRST on most of the stat measures in the key group separating winners from losers.

The electronic hardware suggests the Patriots are 12 1/2-point favorites.

See also our graphic feature of the Patriots-Chargers Matchup. and check the points advantage for each stat.

Bud Goode

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