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Super Bowl Matchups - Steelers vs Cardinals

In Sunday's Super Bowl, Arizona Cardinal QB Kurt Warner will be facing the NFL's best pass defense. Steeler QB Roethlisber will have an easier task.

Pass INTERCEPTIONS can make or break any game. Our stat research group points to the following facts about INTs:

For the 2008 season if your team throws one INT it will cost 6 1/2 points in your scoring differential (Winning Margin). Some mistakes in life are more costly than others. In the NFL the lost INT is among the costliest of errors.

Consider the idea of "Scores per Possession." Since there are 12 possessions per game this one INT costs 2 Field Goals. The importance of this one INT neutralizes the work involved in moving the ball into FG range and making both FG attempts. This is heavy punishment for just ONE POOR PLAY.

How do the Super Bowl teams compare on offense? Below is a stat graphic picturing your favorite team's position relative to the two Super Bowl teams:

Passes Had Intercpted

Percentile Chart

100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest
Lines: Playoff Avg=50 SuperBowl Avg=62

Win Mrg Points Change

Winning Margin Points Change
Sorted by Points Change, 2007 to 2008

Rank	Team	Pctl	Stat Value	Points behind Leader	Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2007	Games Won
1	WAS	100	0.38	0.00	1.73	8
2	MIA	94	0.44	0.35	3.11	11
3	TEN	82	0.56	1.04	2.76	13
4	NYG	76	0.63	1.38	3.45	12
5	N E	71	0.69	1.73	-0.69	11
6	S D	71	0.69	1.73	1.73	8
7	ATL	71	0.69	1.73	1.38	11
8	OAK	71	0.69	1.73	3.11	5
9	IND	65	0.75	2.07	0.69	12
10	CAR	65	0.75	2.07	1.73	12
11	BAL	65	0.75	2.07	0.69	11
12	G B	59	0.81	2.42	0.69	6
13	T B	59	0.81	2.42	-1.73	9
14	JAX	59	0.81	2.42	-1.73	5
15	CHI	53	0.88	2.76	2.42	9
16	ARI	47	0.94	3.11	3.11	9
17	SEA	47	0.94	3.11	-0.69	4
18	BUF	47	0.94	3.11	-0.35	7
19	CIN	47	0.94	3.11	1.73	4
20	PIT	47	0.94	3.11	-0.35	12
21	K C	41	1.00	3.45	1.38	2
22	PHI	41	1.00	3.45	-0.35	9
23	MIN	35	1.06	3.80	-1.04	10
24	DEN	29	1.13	4.14	-1.04	8
25	N O	29	1.13	4.14	0.00	8
26	DET	24	1.19	4.49	1.04	0
27	S F	24	1.19	4.49	-0.69	7
28	STL	24	1.19	4.49	3.11	2
29	DAL	18	1.25	4.83	-0.35	9
30	CLE	18	1.25	4.83	0.00	4
31	HOU	18	1.25	4.83	0.35	8
32	NYJ	0	1.44	5.87	-1.38	9

2008 Season, YTD through Week 17

In season 2007 Steelers ranked 6th on Passes Had Intercpted at 0.88.
In season 2008 they ranked 16th at 0.94, down 0.3 points per game on this one stat.
From 2007 to 2008 Steelers improved by 0.0 points per game on Winning Margin.

The graphic shows the Steelers (17th) tied with the Cards. Losing less than ONE INT per game the data suggests the two teams are equal. But the POINTS CHANGE (RED graph) adds more to the story. QB Warner has WR Fitzgerald to throw to. He's already scored 5 TDs in the playoff games. And the Cards are the league's 2nd most improved adding more than 3 PPG.
By comparison the Steelers are weaker this year than last (by a small fraction, -.35). But the Steelers' counterpart, WR Hines Ward is limping. Hines Ward is a playmaker. Will he hobble? Or will he star?
If Shakespeare had been a football fan he might have written, "That's the question."
With the Steelers on OFFENSE the matchups show the CARDINALS' pass D has a half-point advantage (0.5). CLICK HERE for a stat graphic of the Steelers on OFFENSE facing the Card's pass D).
Bud Goode
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