Bengals at Texans

For most of the season Houston was our pick to win the Super Bowl. They've fallen out with their last two losses which also cost them a bye and homefield advantage.

The chart below suggests the Texans must run the ball to be successful, as they did very well for the first 15 weeks. Running the ball will take some pressure off their young QB who has yet to throw the ball in a playoff game.

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2012 through Week 17

Passing into the Bengals' defense is asking for trouble. This is a defense that sacks opposing QBs 3.17 times per game, ranking 3rd in the league. So look for the Texans to go back to the ground game. If they are successful and can pick up some first downs rushing -- ball control -- it helps their defense too.

On defense the Texans have advantages. Bengals problems on offense include QB sacks (2.88 per game, 26th in the league), Interceptions (1.00, rank 21st), Yards per Pass Attempt (6.11, rank 19th) and Rushing Plays (26.88, rank 17th). All below average and they face a Texan defense that's stronger than average ranking 7th on total yards allowed.

The computer likes the Texans over the Bengals by 4.5 points. To play to this projection the Texans will have to revert to their early season form. They must be successful runing the ball and if they are, they should easily handle the Bengals. However, recent performances (Bengals won 7 of last 8, losing only to Cowboys by one point; Texans lost 3 of last 4) suggest the Bengals are in this game.

Bill Sanders for BudGoodeSports.com
dr.bill@wrsanders.com

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