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Texans at Patriots

Texans meet the Patriots in Foxborough, MA with weather not expected to be a factor. In last week's piece on Texans-Bengals we suggested Texans would revert to their mid/early season play calling style and run the ball more. They did with 39 rushes. They need to keep it up in this game too -- control the ball and keep it away from QB Brady and the Pats.

For the Texans the rub is that the Pats also play ball control. Patriots are 2nd in the league behind Seahawks with 32.69 rushes per game. Pats have an efficient passing game too ranking highly on yards per pass attempt with few QB sacks and low INTs.

Defensively the Texans are stronger against the pass, holding opponents to just 5.78 yards per pass (rank 8th) while the Patriots give up a whopping 6.88 (rank 27th).

As our usual key stat matchups go this contest looks pretty even. Where the Patriots move to the top of the heap is in scoring points at almost 35 per game. The questions is, "How do they do it?" Are they piling on points for a big win like the college teams do? If so you can discount the figure somewhat. The other possibility is that they effectively convert scoring opportunities into TDs not FGs. They do: Patriots score a TD for every 116 yards gained -- best in the league.


Total Points Scored

New England Patriots

2012 through Week 17


This reminds me of a conversation with a NY Giants executive many years ago after a season in which they did not make the playoffs. When asked "What went wrong?" I said, "Well you are last in the league in offense." The exec replied "You're crazy!! We led the conference in yards gained." I said, "Yards are not offense -- points are offense -- and you are last in the league." We did not get the job.

Being able to convert yards gained into TDs is often the difference between winners and losers. This New England team gets the TD. Houston settles for more field goals. I expect the game will hinge on just this. Which offense does a better job of getting into the end zone and conversely which defense does a better job of keeping them out.

The computer favors the Patriots at home by 10 but I expect a close game. Good luck to all my new friends in Houston!

Bill Sanders for BudGoodeSports.com
dr.bill@wrsanders.com

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