restricted access
       "The Number 1 Name for Statistical Analysis in Sports"

Patriots at Broncos

Colts made the same mistakes against the Patriots they made against the Chiefs but this time the Pats burried them under their ground game with 46 rushes--wow.

We learned a few years ago about Coach Belichick's sneakyness. For most of the season he has his team playing just good enough to win. What happens is that their stats show their performance not their potential. As Bud used to say "We don't know how good they really are." It may be happening again this season. We'll get to see how good they really are when they play the Broncos in Denver this Sunday.

Readers of this website know that we like a balanced attack -- running the ball eats time, limits costly INTs and sacks and helps out your defense. This year's Pats run more than any we've seen--no problem for the Pats on offense. But they do need to play above their season averages on defense. See the chart below, Opponent Yards per Pass Attempt. The chart shows many weak performances and they face the league-leading Broncos.

Opp Yds per Pass Att

New England Patriots

2013 through Week 17


The Broncos have been our pick to win the Super Bowl almost the entire year. It's no secret what they do: they throw the ball and do it with great efficiency. Their defense has been suspect and they will have to play tougher or they may not make it to the big game.

While the computer favors the Broncos by 11 it has only past performance data to look at. The human pondering the question "How good are they really?" in reference to the Pats says, maybe 7 to 10 points? And that makes it a toss up.

Copyright 2014, BudGoodeSports.com. All rights reserved.