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Denver vs Panthers

I'll make this short and to the point. This matchup is billed as a contest between the NFL's top defense (Denver) and top offense (Carolina). With some pundits voicing the old saw that "defense wins Super Bowls."

But to see the full picture, reverse the matchups. Now you see a modest offense (Denver) facing a powerfuld defense (Carolina). Big advantage to Panthers.

Our computer has been a Panther fan all year. It loves their stat profile--it fits the model for winning football teams. The computer projects the Panthers to win by 9.5 points on neutral turf. I agree.

The chart below shows the matchups. It looks pretty even when the Panther offense faces the Bronco D. But one sided when the Bronco offense lines up against the Panther D.

It's rare that a team comes along that is at or near the top in both offense and defense like this season's Panthers. They are something special and should take the trophy. They came into the playoffs as our pick to win it all. Even so, the top pick only wins the Super Bowl one year out of three. They made to the big game. Can they go all the way? We think so, but anything can happen.

Charts show points advantage on key stats from each stat category. Team with advantage is pictured with a bar in Advantage column: the bigger the chart, the stronger the team's advantage. Far right column shows Points Advantage on each of our 12 stat matchups.

Panthers on Offense

Offense/Defense Independant Offense Defense Advantage Points
Matchup Variable Name CAR DEN Panthers Broncos Advantage
CAR Off vs DEN Def Total Rushing Plays - I 33.56 24.67 2.9   CAR
CAR Off vs DEN Def Passes Had Intercpted - I 0.61 0.89 2.2   CAR
CAR Off vs DEN Def Give Aways - I 1.11 1.67 1.6   CAR
CAR Off vs DEN Def Rushes + Pass Comp - I 52.17 46.61 0.2   CAR
CAR Off vs DEN Def Fum Lost This Year - I 0.5 0.78 0.1   CAR
CAR Off vs DEN Def QB Sacks - I 1.94 3.28 2.4   DEN
CAR Off vs DEN Def Yards per Pass Att - I 7.01 5.17 4.5   DEN

With Panthers on offense and Broncos on defense the most important independant stat
is Yards per Pass Att where Broncos have an advantage of 4.5 points.

Offense/Defense Dependant Offense Defense Advantage Points
Matchup Variable Name CAR DEN Panthers Broncos Advantage
CAR Off vs DEN Def Total Points Scored - D 32.22 18.33 3.4   CAR
CAR Off vs DEN Def Touchdowns Scored - D 3.83 1.94 2.6   CAR
CAR Off vs DEN Def Points per Pass Att - P 1.1 0.52 2.4   CAR
CAR Off vs DEN Def Plays per Touchdwn - P 25.51 33.29 0.4   DEN
CAR Off vs DEN Def Pct TDs per Pass - P 6.24 2.63 1.4   DEN

Panthers on Defense

Defense/Offense Independant Defense Offense Advantage Points
Matchup Variable Name CAR DEN Panthers Broncos Advantage
CAR Def vs DEN Off Yards per Pass Att - I 5.59 6.24 5.8   CAR
CAR Def vs DEN Off Give Aways - I 2.67 1.78 5.5   CAR
CAR Def vs DEN Off Passes Had Intercpted - I 1.67 1.28 5.2   CAR
CAR Def vs DEN Off Total Rushing Plays - I 21.78 26.33 4.4   CAR
CAR Def vs DEN Off QB Sacks - I 2.89 2.39 2.6   CAR
CAR Def vs DEN Off Rushes + Pass Comp - I 46.44 48.89 1.8   CAR
CAR Def vs DEN Off Fum Lost This Year - I 1 0.5 0.8   CAR

With Panthers on defense and Broncos on offense the most important stat
is Yards per Pass Att where Panthers have an advantage of 5.8 points.

Offense/Defense Dependant Defense Offense Advantage Points
Matchup Variable Name CAR DEN Panthers Broncos Advantage
CAR Def vs DEN Offf Points per Pass Att - P 0.48 0.61 7.2   CAR
CAR Def vs DEN Offf Pct TDs per Pass - P 3.04 2.99 7.1   CAR
CAR Def vs DEN Offf Touchdowns Scored - D 2.22 2.28 6.2   CAR
CAR Def vs DEN Offf Total Points Scored - D 19.28 22.11 5.8   CAR
CAR Def vs DEN Offf Plays per Touchdwn - P 37.02 29.13 0.8   DEN

Bill Sanders for BudGoodeSports.com
dr.bill@wrsanders.com

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