Denver vs Panthers
I'll make this short and to the point. This matchup is billed as a contest between
the NFL's top defense (Denver) and top offense (Carolina). With some pundits voicing the
old saw that "defense wins Super Bowls."
But to see the full picture, reverse the matchups. Now you see a modest offense (Denver)
facing a powerfuld defense (Carolina). Big advantage to Panthers.
Our computer has been a Panther fan all year. It loves their stat profile--it fits the
model for winning football teams. The computer projects the Panthers to win by 9.5 points
on neutral turf. I agree.
The chart below shows the matchups. It looks pretty even when
the Panther offense faces the Bronco D. But one sided when the Bronco offense lines up
against the Panther D.
It's rare that a team comes along that is at or near the top in both
offense and defense like this season's Panthers. They are something special and should
take the trophy. They came into the playoffs as our pick to win it all. Even so,
the top pick only wins the Super Bowl one year out of three. They made to the
big game. Can they go all the way? We think so, but anything can happen.
Charts show points advantage on key stats from each stat category. Team with advantage
is pictured with a bar in Advantage column: the bigger the chart, the stronger the team's advantage.
Far right column shows Points Advantage on each of our 12 stat matchups.
|
Panthers on Offense Offense/Defense |
Independant |
Offense |
Defense |
Advantage |
Points |
Matchup |
Variable Name |
CAR |
DEN |
Panthers |
Broncos |
Advantage |
CAR Off vs DEN Def |
Total Rushing Plays - I |
33.56 |
24.67 |
|
|
2.9 CAR |
CAR Off vs DEN Def |
Passes Had Intercpted - I |
0.61 |
0.89 |
|
|
2.2 CAR |
CAR Off vs DEN Def |
Give Aways - I |
1.11 |
1.67 |
|
|
1.6 CAR |
CAR Off vs DEN Def |
Rushes + Pass Comp - I |
52.17 |
46.61 |
|
|
0.2 CAR |
CAR Off vs DEN Def |
Fum Lost This Year - I |
0.5 |
0.78 |
|
|
0.1 CAR |
CAR Off vs DEN Def |
QB Sacks - I |
1.94 |
3.28 |
|
|
2.4 DEN |
CAR Off vs DEN Def |
Yards per Pass Att - I |
7.01 |
5.17 |
|
|
4.5 DEN |
With Panthers on offense and Broncos on defense the most important independant stat
is Yards per Pass Att where Broncos have an advantage of 4.5 points. Offense/Defense |
Dependant |
Offense |
Defense |
Advantage |
Points |
Matchup |
Variable Name |
CAR |
DEN |
Panthers |
Broncos |
Advantage |
CAR Off vs DEN Def |
Total Points Scored - D |
32.22 |
18.33 |
|
|
3.4 CAR |
CAR Off vs DEN Def |
Touchdowns Scored - D |
3.83 |
1.94 |
|
|
2.6 CAR |
CAR Off vs DEN Def |
Points per Pass Att - P |
1.1 |
0.52 |
|
|
2.4 CAR |
CAR Off vs DEN Def |
Plays per Touchdwn - P |
25.51 |
33.29 |
|
|
0.4 DEN |
CAR Off vs DEN Def |
Pct TDs per Pass - P |
6.24 |
2.63 |
|
|
1.4 DEN |
Panthers on Defense Defense/Offense |
Independant |
Defense |
Offense |
Advantage |
Points |
Matchup |
Variable Name |
CAR |
DEN |
Panthers |
Broncos |
Advantage |
CAR Def vs DEN Off |
Yards per Pass Att - I |
5.59 |
6.24 |
|
|
5.8 CAR |
CAR Def vs DEN Off |
Give Aways - I |
2.67 |
1.78 |
|
|
5.5 CAR |
CAR Def vs DEN Off |
Passes Had Intercpted - I |
1.67 |
1.28 |
|
|
5.2 CAR |
CAR Def vs DEN Off |
Total Rushing Plays - I |
21.78 |
26.33 |
|
|
4.4 CAR |
CAR Def vs DEN Off |
QB Sacks - I |
2.89 |
2.39 |
|
|
2.6 CAR |
CAR Def vs DEN Off |
Rushes + Pass Comp - I |
46.44 |
48.89 |
|
|
1.8 CAR |
CAR Def vs DEN Off |
Fum Lost This Year - I |
1 |
0.5 |
|
|
0.8 CAR |
With Panthers on defense and Broncos on offense the most important stat
is Yards per Pass Att where Panthers have an advantage of 5.8 points.
Offense/Defense |
Dependant |
Defense |
Offense |
Advantage |
Points |
Matchup |
Variable Name |
CAR |
DEN |
Panthers |
Broncos |
Advantage |
CAR Def vs DEN Offf |
Points per Pass Att - P |
0.48 |
0.61 |
|
|
7.2 CAR |
CAR Def vs DEN Offf |
Pct TDs per Pass - P |
3.04 |
2.99 |
|
|
7.1 CAR |
CAR Def vs DEN Offf |
Touchdowns Scored - D |
2.22 |
2.28 |
|
|
6.2 CAR |
CAR Def vs DEN Offf |
Total Points Scored - D |
19.28 |
22.11 |
|
|
5.8 CAR |
CAR Def vs DEN Offf |
Plays per Touchdwn - P |
37.02 |
29.13 |
|
|
0.8 DEN |
|