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Packers at Falcons

The Packers and Falcons match up looks like a barn burner in Atlanta. Packers, with QB Rodgers in top form, showed the powerhouse type of offense they will need if they are to make it to the Big Game. During the second half of the season, and right through the playoffs, the Packers offense is on fire. They will score points, no doubt.

But the Falcons will score some points too. As mentioned in last week's article, Falcons led the league on the most important stat in the game--standing out from the crowd while doing it. Earning 8.23 yards per attempt is a number associated with past Super Bowl winners. See the article linked above for more info.

The question becomes: "Who stops whom?" Both pass defenses appear modest in strength. See our Killer Stat, Defense chart and you'll find the Falcons mid-pack at 6.19 and the Packers near the bottom at 7.05. Slight edge to the Falcons. Packers defensive performane is shown in the chart below, GB Packers on Opponent Yards per Pass Attempt Allowed. Mostly weaker than league average but when they were stingy, they won.

2016 through Week 17


But this is not much to hang your hat on as the QBs on both teams will find plenty of holes and open receivers. Give the Falcons a few points for HFA and they come out as favorites. Our computer says it's a 7.5-point edge. But keep in mind it uses the full-season stats which somewhat undervalues the second half surge of the Packers. I think it will be close, with big plays from the hotter-handed QB putting their team on top.

Bill Sanders for BudGoodeSports.com
dr.bill@wrsanders.com

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