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Chiefs at Buccaneers

Let's start with our computer projection. It favors Tampa Bay by 5.5 points. What!? As of this writing, the betting line is the other way: Chiefs favored by 3. That is huge difference. Let's dig into it.

First off, our calculation assigns 3.3 points to the Bucs for the home field -- first time it's ever happened. Since there is zero real data to go on (homefiled advanatage in a Super Bowl) it's being treated like a regular playoff game. But there's a difference.

Several factors are known to contribute to the HFA which may not all be fully present in this game. First, the home fan support is one-sided, overwhelming so. Will that be true here? Don't know but I doubt to the extent of regular playoff game. Second, the noise level (support for the home team) influences ref calls. A third factor is the comfort and surroundings enjoyed by the home team: stay, eat, sleep at home. Players and staff can asily follow their typical routine. Visitors need to travel and stay in unfamiliar surroundings. While that's true in this case -- the scale and scope of the game will make this less than typical for home team.

I'd guess that our standard 3.3-point homefield advantage is probably too much.

Even so, our computer still likes the Bucs. Looking at our proprietary offense-defense stat matchup reports, I've posted one such report here, This is why: The Bucs defense earn big points advantages over the Chiefs in the running game. TB was one of, if not the hardest team to run against.

Opponent Tot Rushes

Tampa Bay Bucs

2020 through Week 17


      Number of Opponent Rushes - Tampa Bay Bucs

Conversely, the Chiefs defense earns a smaller points advantage vs the Bucs running game as the Bucs running game was one of the weakest (least used) in the league.

This game will be decided in the air. Both QBs had great years. Both are past Super Bowl winners. Receiver corp on both squads are excellent. On paper it looks like both the Chiefs and the Bucs will have little success running the ball but good success passing. I'll say that this game really comes down to pass defenese. The defense that best performs and can at least slow down the opposing offense should win the game.

Summing up, our computer likes the Bucaneers, bucking the betting line. Our computer has pulled off many surprising wins in these situations in the past and it's hard to go against it. Having friends on the Chiefs' staff, I have to admit that I'm rooting for the Chiefs and I think they can win. They can't just show up and expect to win (as Green Bay did two weeks ago). They will have to play a great game to make it two in a row.

Bill Sanders for BudGoodeSports.com
dr.bill@wrsanders.com

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