Chiefs at Buccaneers
Let's start with our computer projection. It favors Tampa Bay by 5.5 points. What!?
As of this writing, the betting line is the other way: Chiefs favored by 3. That is huge difference. Let's dig into it.
First off, our calculation assigns 3.3 points to the Bucs for the home field -- first time it's ever happened. Since there
is zero real data to go on (homefiled advanatage in a Super Bowl) it's being treated like a regular playoff game. But there's
a difference.
Several factors are known to contribute to the HFA which may not all be fully present in this game. First, the home fan support is one-sided, overwhelming
so. Will that be true here? Don't know but I doubt to the extent of regular playoff game. Second, the noise level
(support for the home team) influences ref calls. A third factor is the comfort and surroundings enjoyed by the home team: stay, eat, sleep
at home. Players and staff can asily follow their typical routine. Visitors need to travel and stay in unfamiliar surroundings. While
that's true in this case -- the scale and scope of the game will make this less than typical for home team.
I'd guess that our standard 3.3-point homefield advantage is probably too much.
Even so, our computer still likes the Bucs. Looking at our proprietary offense-defense stat matchup reports,
I've posted one such report here,
This is why:
The Bucs defense earn big points advantages over the Chiefs in the running game. TB was one of, if not the hardest team to run against.
Opponent Tot Rushes
Tampa Bay Bucs
2020 through Week 17
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