49ers at Rams

Rams beat the Bucs and 49ers beat the Packers setting up this matchup of division rivals. We've backed both these teams and we're not surprised the NFC conference champ will come out of the highly-contested West division. The toughest division in the league.

This should be yet another great game in a playoff season marked by great games. Just like the AFC Championship contest, this is a matchup of GREAT passing teams. However the defenses are a bit stronger here. On offense, 49ers and Rams rank 1st and 3rd on yards per pass attempt, our killer offense. On killer stat, defense -- yards per pass attempt allowed they rank 13th and 11th -- strong stats for both teams on both sides of the ball.

And so, we can talk about the most important independent stat in the game -- one stat that separates winners from losers. If you take yards per pass attempt earned on offense and subtract from it opponent yards per pass attempt allowed you get our killer stat, yards per pass attempt difference. In this game we see the No. 1 and No. 2 teams rising to the top as seen here: Killer Stat, Yards per Pass - Difference.

We've looked at SF 49ers yards per pass attempt stat in our SF-DAL wildcard game feature. Lots of big games on that chart.

Here's the Rams chart. Stronger than league average in all but 3 games.

As with the earlier game, it's hard to separate these two teams based on stat profiles -- they are nearly identical teams. 49ers beat the Rams in both divisional contests. This is a playoff game in L.A. A brand new ballgame. Our computer likes the Rams at home by 4.5 with 3 of that for the home field. Looks like a toss up to me. If you make me pick, I'll take the Rams but by the slightest of margins. Another great game in prospect!

Bill Sanders for BudGoodeSports.com
dr.bill@wrsanders.com

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