Packers at Eagles

Packers at Eagles makes for an interesting matchup. I generally like teams coming out of strong conferences and Packers fit that bill as 3 NFC teams make the playoffs. Eagles represent true "old school" football as they run the ball like a Woody Hayes Ohio State team from way back.

Eagles lead the league in rushes, first downs rushing, yards rushing and rushes per pass attempt. They threw fewer passes and fewer incompletes than any other team in the league.

We always note that pass attempts is inversely correlated to winning. Teams that win pass less. Teams that lose pass more. Does that mean a team can win more games merely by running more / passing less? An interesting question. While the answer has to be "not necessarily," for weak teams, it may still be a sound idea.

I'm reminded of a meeting Bud Goode had with legendary Texas Longhorn Coach, Darryl Royal in L.A. before a game with the UCLA Bruins. Royal asked Bud, "What's the optimum number of pass attempts?" Bud said, "Coach, the data says, the fewer the better." Texas proceded to whallop the Bruins, throwing ZERO forward passes.

As Coach Woody Hayes often observed, when you throw the ball six things can happen, five of them bad. Eagles are minimizing risk with their high run, low pass offense. Unless you get too far behind on the scoreboard, it's a great way to win.

On pass offense, Packers, rank 3rd ahead of Eagles at 11. Killer Stat, Offense.

Flip side on pass defense, with Eagles at the top and Packers at 14. Another benefit of rushing. Successfully running the ball and making first downs, keeps the ball away from your opponents -- limiting their offensive output. See both teams on the defensive side of our Killer Stat, (Yards per Pass attempt) chart. Killer Stat, Defense.

Our computer likes the Eagles at home by 5.5. I see a close game. Having faced Lions and Vikings twice, Packers are hardened to tough competition. This should serve them well even though I see the Eagles winning this game.

Bill Sanders for BudGoodeSports.com
dr.bill@wrsanders.com

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