PLAYOFF and SUPER BOWL PROJECTIONS

Goode's Winning Index
8 Divisional Charts

Goode's Winning Index	Percentile Chart 100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest Lines: Playoff Avg=85 SuperBowl Avg=98	Win Mrg Points Change Winning Margin Points Change Sorted by Points Change, 2007 to 2008
AFC South 2008 Season, YTD through Week 17 Rank Team Pctl Stat Value Points behind Leader Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2007 Games Won 1 IND 100 1.06 0.00 -2.62 12 5 TEN 98 1.00 0.44 10.05 13 22 HOU 57 -0.31 9.61 -2.18 8 24 JAX 55 -0.38 10.05 -9.17 5

Week 17--AFC South PLAYOFF RACE

Colts lead the division at 1.06 and are followed by Titans (1.00), Texans (-0.31) and Jags (-0.38).
Titans earned 1.00 on Goode's Winning Index and are 0.44 points behind the league leader.
The Titans up/down points change on this stat over last season is 10.05.

The league's most up team on Goode's Winning Index is the Miami Dolphins, up 12.23 points per game through week 17.
The most down team is the New England Patriots, down -15.29 points.

Week 15 - AFC South -- Playoff Projections: Several features come alive tonight when the Indy Colts visit the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are going nowhere in the race for the playoffs. By contrast the Indy Colts have come alive on Goode's Winning Index and as seen in the AFC South divisional stat graphic above the Colts are threatening the season-long leader (Tennessee Titans). Their independent Killer Stat I, Yards per Pass Attempt, is the key reason why the Colts are now in the race for the playoffs. On offense their last two games have seen QB Manning earning almost 9 yards per toss. Typically any season average greater than 8 yards per pass is a Super Bowl performance (CLICK HERE for a stat graphic picturing QB Manning's efforts). In three of the 5 games where the Colts were significantly below league average (DARK BLUE line) they lost (CHICAGO, GREEN BAY and Tennessee). But they won 7 of 8 games where they were stronger than league average. Bottom line is a winning projection over the Jags by at least 5 points. Since the Jags can't stop the pass this season it could be more. Mucho. Bud Goode

Goode's Winning Index	Percentile Chart 100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest Lines: Playoff Avg=85 SuperBowl Avg=98	Win Mrg Points Change Winning Margin Points Change Sorted by Points Change, 2007 to 2008
AFC East 2008 Season, YTD through Week 17 Rank Team Pctl Stat Value Points behind Leader Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2007 Games Won 10 NYJ 82 0.50 3.93 8.74 9 12 MIA 80 0.44 4.37 12.23 11 13 N E 78 0.38 4.81 -15.29 11 19 BUF 69 0.06 6.99 6.55 7

Week 17--AFC East PLAYOFF RACE

Jets lead the division at 0.50 and are followed by Dolphins (0.44), Patriots (0.38) and Bills (0.06).
Jets earned 0.50 on Goode's Winning Index and are 3.93 points behind the league leader.
The Jets up/down points change on this stat over last season is 8.74.

The league's most up team on Goode's Winning Index is the Miami Dolphins, up 12.23 points per game through week 17.
The most down team is the New England Patriots, down -15.29 points.

Week 16 - AFC East Playoff Projections The Buffalo Bills knocked off the Denver Broncos last week but in so doing sent people into a crowd of walking wounded. While the Bills improved this season on their passing efficiency stats, adding 5.3 points per game to their scoring differential (on both sides of the ball) they will not have enough punch to hold off the New England Patriots. CLICK HERE for a stat graphic picturing the Bills' key Killer Stat contributing to their improvement. Over the past 4 seasons the Bills have followed a saw-toothed pattern up and down on passing efficiency. This season the pattern is up-up-and-away taking the Winning Margin with it. But they are not yet in the playoff range. While the Winning Index scoring projection has the Bills to win this final game against the Pats by a single point, Hey, Bud sez it ain't so. Too many holes in the lineup. Coach Belichick can pick his winning margin. Bud Goode

Goode's Winning Index	Percentile Chart 100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest Lines: Playoff Avg=85 SuperBowl Avg=98	Win Mrg Points Change Winning Margin Points Change Sorted by Points Change, 2007 to 2008
AFC North 2008 Season, YTD through Week 17 Rank Team Pctl Stat Value Points behind Leader Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2007 Games Won 2 PIT 100 1.06 0.00 0.87 12 4 BAL 98 1.00 0.44 11.80 11 29 CLE 24 -1.38 17.04 -11.80 4 30 CIN 22 -1.44 17.48 -8.74 4

Week 17--AFC North PLAYOFF RACE

Steelers lead the division at 1.06 and are followed by Ravens (1.00), Browns (-1.38) and Bengals (-1.44).
Steelers earned 1.06 on Goode's Winning Index and are 0.00 points behind the league leader.
The Steelers up/down points change on this stat over last season is 0.87.

The league's most up team on Goode's Winning Index is the Miami Dolphins, up 12.23 points per game through week 17.
The most down team is the New England Patriots, down -15.29 points.

Week 16 - AFC North -- Playoff Projections: In the stat graphic above the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers are almost in a tie at the top of the AFC North Division on Goode's Winning INDEX. After Sunday's games one will be a wild card team and one the Division Leader. Both teams have season performance values on the INDEX that puts them on the edge of the 7-year Super Bowl average (BLACK vertical line). The Ravens are also the leagues's MOST UP on the Winning Margin adding 14.9 PPG. CLICK HERE for a stat graphic picturing the Ravens' vault into outer space. The stat contributing most points to the Ravens' fab improvement is a measure of passing efficiency, our research group's number one Killer Stat II, Points per Pass Atempt (CLICK HERE for a stat graphic picturing your team's position relative to the leaders). The Ravens added 12.6 PPG to their scoring differential, improved their Winning Margin by 14.9 PPG and on the most important indpendent stat separating winners from losers (Yards per Pass Attempt, the key Killer Stat I), added 9.8 PPG. This data suggests Coach John Harbaugh should get a nod for Coach of the Year. (CLICK HERE for a stat graphic of the Ravens' progress under Coach Harbaugh). By comparison, when the Jacksonville Jaguars visit Baltimore Sunday they bring a flip-side stat profile. Down 9.7 PPG in their Scoring Differential they are also down -9.3 PPG on the key passing efficiency stat Percent TDs per Pass. This is the stat that boosted WRs Randy Moss and Welker of the Patriots into the Super Bowl. Much to the pleasure of Coach Bill Belichick, a stat man at heart. With the Jags' modest pass D facing the Ravens' airforce and tank corps, the scoring projection says Ravens over Jaguars by 14. Bud Goode

Goode's Winning Index	Percentile Chart 100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest Lines: Playoff Avg=85 SuperBowl Avg=98	Win Mrg Points Change Winning Margin Points Change Sorted by Points Change, 2007 to 2008
AFC West 2008 Season, YTD through Week 17 Rank Team Pctl Stat Value Points behind Leader Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2007 Games Won 7 S D 90 0.75 2.18 -0.87 8 26 DEN 51 -0.50 10.92 1.75 8 27 K C 39 -0.88 13.54 -2.18 2 28 OAK 31 -1.13 15.29 -0.87 5

Week 17--AFC West PLAYOFF RACE

Chargers lead the division at 0.75 and are followed by Broncos (-0.50), Chiefs (-0.88) and Raiders (-1.13).
Chargers earned 0.75 on Goode's Winning Index and are 2.18 points behind the league leader.
The Chargers up/down points change on this stat over last season is -0.87.

The league's most up team on Goode's Winning Index is the Miami Dolphins, up 12.23 points per game through week 17.
The most down team is the New England Patriots, down -15.29 points.

Week 13 - AFC West -- Playoff Projections: The Oakland Raiders visit the San Diego Chargers Thursday night for a one sided battle that favors the Chargers on both offense and D. With QB Rivers lookin' good averaging 7.55 yards per pass (a Super Bowl performance level) HIS PASSING EFFICIENCY STATS WILL WIN BIG FOR SAN DIEGO. Yards per toss is our stat research group's number one Killer Stat. Along with INTs, INT Return Yards, Sacks and QB Sack Yards the Raiders pass D will not be competitive. Passing efficiency stats will contribute most points to the victory. QB Sacks and Sack yardage and INTs and INT return yardage will all make the major contribution. Click Here for a stat graphic picturing the Chargers' sack yardage per game in the first 13 weeks of the 2008 season. In the 5 games where the Chargers were average or weaker than average (light BLUE line) they won only 1 game and lost 4. Against the Raiders Thursday night it won't happen. Scoring projection: Chargers by 12. Bud Goode

Goode's Winning Index	Percentile Chart 100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest Lines: Playoff Avg=85 SuperBowl Avg=98	Win Mrg Points Change Winning Margin Points Change Sorted by Points Change, 2007 to 2008
NFC East 2008 Season, YTD through Week 17 Rank Team Pctl Stat Value Points behind Leader Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2007 Games Won 6 PHI 94 0.88 1.31 2.62 9 8 NYG 88 0.69 2.62 3.50 12 11 DAL 80 0.44 4.37 -4.81 9 23 WAS 57 -0.31 9.61 -3.06 8

Week 17--NFC East PLAYOFF RACE

Eagles lead the division at 0.88 and are followed by Giants (0.69), Cowboys (0.44) and Redskins (-0.31).
Giants earned 0.69 on Goode's Winning Index and are 2.62 points behind the league leader.
The Giants up/down points change on this stat over last season is 3.50.

The league's most up team on Goode's Winning Index is the Miami Dolphins, up 12.23 points per game through week 17.
The most down team is the New England Patriots, down -15.29 points.

Week 16 - NFC East -- Playoff Projections: The New York Giants, last season's Super Bowl winners and with a 6-point victory over the Carolina Panthers (an up and coming team that may do well in the playoffs under Coach John Fox), are visiting the run-run Minesota Vikings Sunday. The Giants improved this season on our stat research group's key passing efficiency stats on both sides of the ball adding 6.2 PPG to their scoring differential. CLICK HERE for a stat graphic picturing the contribution made to this already powerful team. The tight linkage of passing efficiency stats to a team's victory is well presented once again in the graphic above. Years the Giants improved their scoring differential improved and years they were weaker their winning margin fell off. The electronic hardware's scoring projection has the Giants by only 1 point over the Vikes. If you like underdogs, this is your game. Bud Goode

Goode's Winning Index	Percentile Chart 100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest Lines: Playoff Avg=85 SuperBowl Avg=98	Win Mrg Points Change Winning Margin Points Change Sorted by Points Change, 2007 to 2008
NFC North 2008 Season, YTD through Week 17 Rank Team Pctl Stat Value Points behind Leader Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2007 Games Won 14 G B 76 0.31 5.24 -5.68 6 16 MIN 76 0.31 5.24 -2.62 10 18 CHI 73 0.19 6.12 3.50 9 32 DET 0 -2.13 22.28 -6.55 0

Week 17--NFC North PLAYOFF RACE

Packers lead the division at 0.31 and are followed by Vikings (0.31), Bears (0.19) and Lions (-2.13).
Bears earned 0.19 on Goode's Winning Index and are 6.12 points behind the league leader.
The Bears up/down points change on this stat over last season is 3.50.

The league's most up team on Goode's Winning Index is the Miami Dolphins, up 12.23 points per game through week 17.
The most down team is the New England Patriots, down -15.29 points.

Week 15 - NFC North -- Playoff Projections: The Falcons visit the Vikings and bring a running game to Minnesota to challenge the Vikes' premiere RB Peterson. The Falcons' front office turned the team around this season with a running game that moved up from 29th to 2nd best in the league. The improvement in total rushes added 13.1 points to the Scoring Differential (CLICK HERE for a stat graphic picturing the impact this improvement had on their Winning Margin). So it's Vikes' RB Adrian Peterson, among the world's greatest running backs charging into the NFL's most improved running game. Our stat research group's electronic hardware sticks with the greatest: Vikings over Falcons by 4. Bud Goode

Goode's Winning Index	Percentile Chart 100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest Lines: Playoff Avg=85 SuperBowl Avg=98	Win Mrg Points Change Winning Margin Points Change Sorted by Points Change, 2007 to 2008
NFC South 2008 Season, YTD through Week 17 Rank Team Pctl Stat Value Points behind Leader Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2007 Games Won 3 N O 98 1.00 0.44 5.68 8 9 CAR 86 0.63 3.06 8.74 12 15 ATL 76 0.31 5.24 11.36 11 17 T B 75 0.25 5.68 0.00 9

Week 17--NFC South PLAYOFF RACE

Saints lead the division at 1.00 and are followed by Panthers (0.63), Falcons (0.31) and Bucs (0.25).
Saints earned 1.00 on Goode's Winning Index and are 0.44 points behind the league leader.
The Saints up/down points change on this stat over last season is 5.68.

The league's most up team on Goode's Winning Index is the Miami Dolphins, up 12.23 points per game through week 17.
The most down team is the New England Patriots, down -15.29 points.

Week 15 - NFC South -- Playoff Projections: The Carolina Panthers visit the New York Giants in a game that decides playoff homefield advantage. That's about it. The real game will be the NFC Championship which may match the teams again. From the POV of statistical science this is an interesting game because it involves both teams' probable performance on the MOST IMPORTANT independent stat separating winners from losers. Yards per Pass Attempt (QB Sacks counted as failed attempts) continues to be the Killer Stat of all time. In the NFC South graphic above the Carolina Panthers have a big edge on Goode's INDEX over second best New Orleans. The Tampa Bay Bucs are behind the Playoff average (vertical BLACK line). In addition, this season yards per toss is the top stat contributing most points to the Panthers' improvement on winning margin (+11 PPG). Coach Fox has been aware of he import of yards per attempt and rocketed up from 26th to 4th. This ride added 9.1 PPG to the Panthers' scoring differential. CLICK HERE for a stat graphic picturing the impact the Panthers' Yards per Pass improvement had on their Winning Margin. By comparison the New York Giants' Yards per Pass took a hit last week when the Cowboys clobbered QB Manning dumping him 8 times with QB sack yardage lost hitting a hi 45 yards (at a cost of 15 PPG ). On top of that we won't see Giants' WR Burress in this week's game. At 6' 5" and sure hands, quick cuts and a circus-act performance in last season's Super Bowl victory he is not coming out to play. IF-THEN relationships: IF Yards per Pass is the crucial stat in most games, THEN the data suggests the Panthers will play to win. They have the tools. And the playoff homefield advantage is there to get. Without Burress the Giants may not be as efficient. The season stats point to a New York Giants win by 4 points. But ONE YARD more than the opposition carries almost the same 4-point value. Stats don't win games. People do. And Coach Fox built a team of people who get the job done. Just another game the world has gotta' see. Bud Goode PS: In the 1999 season Super Bowl coach Dick Vermeil's Rams duplicated Coach Fox's performance improvement. Vermeil added 9 1/2 PPG. WR Tory Holt made a contribution and QB Kurt Warner's golden arm lead the league on Yards per Pass. Rams were the league's most improved team and won the Big Game.

Goode's Winning Index	Percentile Chart 100=Stongest 50=Average 0=Weakest Lines: Playoff Avg=85 SuperBowl Avg=98	Win Mrg Points Change Winning Margin Points Change Sorted by Points Change, 2007 to 2008
NFC West 2008 Season, YTD through Week 17 Rank Team Pctl Stat Value Points behind Leader Win Mrg Pts Chg vs 2007 Games Won 20 ARI 65 -0.06 7.86 -2.18 9 21 S F 61 -0.19 8.74 5.24 7 25 SEA 51 -0.50 10.92 -8.74 4 31 STL 2 -2.06 21.84 -5.24 2

Week 17--NFC West PLAYOFF RACE

Cardinals lead the division at -0.06 and are followed by 49ers (-0.19), Seahawks (-0.50) and Rams (-2.06).
Cardinals earned -0.06 on Goode's Winning Index and are 7.86 points behind the league leader.
The Cardinals up/down points change on this stat over last season is -2.18.

The league's most up team on Goode's Winning Index is the Miami Dolphins, up 12.23 points per game through week 17.
The most down team is the New England Patriots, down -15.29 points.

Week 12 - NFC West -- Playoff Projections: When the Arizona Cardinals meet the Philadelphia Eagles on Thanksgiving day, the game will be a war. Both sides will have a point to make. Cardinal Coach Ken Whisenhunt has built a competitive Cardinal team. The stat that contributed most to the Cards' success (Total Yards per Game) jumped from 13th to 2nd adding 6.1 PPG. The differential between offense and defense shows that improvement has been made on both sides of the ball. CLICK HERE for a stat graphic picturing the impact made by Coach Whisenhunt in just two seasons. The Eagles may still want to show that QB McNabb has it all. It is likely we will see a lot of run-run-run when the Eagles have the ball and pass play selection will show up in shorter routes. The race to the playoffs is pretty much decided in the NFC West with the Cards on top and not much in the way of competition. The Eagles still have their pride at stake. Let the data speak for itself. If the two teams play to their season average the projected scoring shows Philly on top -- by 1 point. Bud Goode

Playoff Race Related Links:
Goode's Winning Index, 8 Divisional Bar Charts
Goode's Winning Index, 32-team Percentile Chart
Goode's Winning Index Yearly Charts for 32 Teams
Goode's Winning Index Points Behind Leader
Goode's Winning Index Link to Winning (Helmet graphs predict W-L records)