2009 through Monday, Week 10

Power Ratings

According to Bud Goode's computer-aided analysis of pro football a good power rating system is determined by simply dividing points scored on offense by points allowed on defense.

The average team earns one point on offense for each point given up on defense and has a ratio of 1.00. Divisional champs earn 1.5 points for each point given up and cellar dwellers earn about 1 point for each 2 points allowed. An average team should be close to an 8-8 record.

Here are the power ratings for last year's playoff teams:

2008 Playoff Teams
1 Tennessee Titans 1.60 7 Indianapolis Colts 1.27
2 Baltimore Ravens 1.58 8 Carolina Panthers 1.26
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 1.56 9 Atlanta Falcons 1.20
4 New York Giants 1.45 10 Minnesota Vikings 1.14
5 Philadelphia Eagles 1.44 11 Miami Dolphins 1.09
6 San Diego Chargers 1.27 12 Arizona Cardinals 1.00
2008: Super Bowl average = 1.58 Playoff average = 1.32

The ultimate playoff teams for this year will be the ones with the best balance. After week number 10 the computer power ratings are:

2009
1 Indianapolis Colts 1.77 17 Denver Broncos 1.11
2 New England Patriots 1.73 18 San Francisco 49ers 1.02
3 New Orleans Saints 1.68 19 Miami Dolphins 0.96
4 Minnesota Vikings 1.47 20 Seattle Seahawks 0.94
5 Baltimore Ravens 1.44 21 Chicago Bears 0.93
6 Cincinnati Bengals 1.35 22 Jacksonville Jaguars 0.82
7 Dallas Cowboys 1.33 23 Washington Redskins 0.82
8 Pittsburgh Steelers 1.32 24 Carolina Panthers 0.82
9 Philadelphia Eagles 1.32 25 Tennessee Titans 0.74
10 Green Bay Packers 1.30 26 Buffalo Bills 0.67
11 New York Jets 1.26 27 Kansas City Chiefs 0.66
12 Arizona Cardinals 1.24 28 Tampa Bay Bucs 0.61
13 San Diego Chargers 1.17 29 Detroit Lions 0.54
14 Houston Texans 1.14 30 Oakland Raiders 0.41
15 Atlanta Falcons 1.14 31 St. Louis Rams 0.40
16 New York Giants 1.14 32 Cleveland Browns 0.35

At the end of the season the strongest team will earn about 2 points on offense for each point allowd. Divisional leaders will be near 1.5 points for each D point given up. And cellar-dwellers will earn only one point for each two points on D (a ratio of 0.5-to-1). The average team will score as many points as their D allows, earning a ratio of 1-to-1. This spells a won/lost recored near 8-8. In 2006 this balance-of-power stat corellated 97% with the scoring differential (winning margin) and in 2005, 98%. This offensive-defensive scoring balance of power is a most reliable Killer Stat.