2008 through Monday, Week 17

Power Ratings

According to Bud Goode's computer-aided analysis of pro football a good power rating system is determined by simply dividing points scored on offense by points allowed on defense.

The average team earns one point on offense for each point given up on defense and has a ratio of 1.00. Divisional champs earn 1.5 points for each point given up and cellar dwellers earn about 1 point for each 2 points allowed. An average team should be close to an 8-8 record.

Here are the power ratings for last year's playoff teams:

2007 Playoff Teams
1 New England Patriots 2.15 7 Jacksonville Jaguars 1.35
2 Indianapolis Colts 1.72 8 Seattle Seahawks 1.35
3 Green Bay Packers 1.49 9 Tampa Bay Bucs 1.24
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 1.46 10 Washington Redskins 1.08
5 San Diego Chargers 1.45 11 New York Giants 1.06
6 Dallas Cowboys 1.40 12 Tennessee Titans 1.01
2007: Super Bowl average = 1.82 Playoff average = 1.40

The ultimate playoff teams for this year will be the ones with the best balance. After week number 17 the computer power ratings are:

2008
1 Tennessee Titans 1.60 17 Chicago Bears 1.07
2 Baltimore Ravens 1.58 18 Arizona Cardinals 1.00
3 Pittsburgh Steelers 1.56 19 Dallas Cowboys 0.99
4 New York Giants 1.45 20 Buffalo Bills 0.98
5 Philadelphia Eagles 1.44 21 Houston Texans 0.93
6 New England Patriots 1.33 22 Washington Redskins 0.90
7 San Diego Chargers 1.27 23 San Francisco 49ers 0.89
8 Indianapolis Colts 1.27 24 Denver Broncos 0.83
9 Carolina Panthers 1.26 25 Jacksonville Jaguars 0.82
10 Atlanta Falcons 1.20 26 Seattle Seahawks 0.75
11 New Orleans Saints 1.18 27 Oakland Raiders 0.68
12 Minnesota Vikings 1.14 28 Cleveland Browns 0.66
13 New York Jets 1.14 29 Kansas City Chiefs 0.66
14 Tampa Bay Bucs 1.12 30 Cincinnati Bengals 0.56
15 Green Bay Packers 1.10 31 Detroit Lions 0.52
16 Miami Dolphins 1.09 32 St. Louis Rams 0.50

At the end of the season the strongest team will earn about 2 points on offense for each point allowd. Divisional leaders will be near 1.5 points for each D point given up. And cellar-dwellers will earn only one point for each two points on D (a ratio of 0.5-to-1). The average team will score as many points as their D allows, earning a ratio of 1-to-1. This spells a won/lost recored near 8-8. In 2006 this balance-of-power stat corellated 97% with the scoring differential (winning margin) and in 2005, 98%. This offensive-defensive scoring balance of power is a most reliable Killer Stat.