2007 through Monday, Week 17

Power Ratings

According to Bud Goode's computer-aided analysis of pro football a good power rating system is determined by simply dividing points scored on offense by points allowed on defense.

The average team earns one point on offense for each point given up on defense and has a ratio of 1.00. Divisional champs earn 1.5 points for each point given up and cellar dwellers earn about 1 point for each 2 points allowed. An average team should be close to an 8-8 record.

Here are the power ratings for last year's playoff teams:

2006 Playoff Teams
1 Batimore Ravens 1.76 7 Philadelphia Eagles 1.21
2 Chicago Bears 1.67 8 Indianapolis Colts 1.19
3 New England Patriots 1.62 9 New York Jets 1.07
4 San Diego Chargers 1.62 10 Kansas City Chiefs 1.05
5 New Orleans Saints 1.28 11 Seattle Seahawks 0.98
6 Dallas Cowboys 1.21 12 New York Giants 0.98
2006: Super Bowl average = 1.69 Playoff average = 1.31

The ultimate playoff teams for this year will be the ones with the best balance. After week number 17 the computer power ratings are:

2007
1 New England Patriots 2.15 17 Cincinnati Bengals 0.99
2 Indianapolis Colts 1.72 18 Houston Texans 0.99
3 Green Bay Packers 1.49 19 New Orleans Saints 0.98
4 Pittsburgh Steelers 1.46 20 Chicago Bears 0.96
5 San Diego Chargers 1.45 21 Denver Broncos 0.78
6 Dallas Cowboys 1.40 22 Detroit Lions 0.78
7 Jacksonville Jaguars 1.35 23 Carolina Panthers 0.77
8 Seattle Seahawks 1.35 24 New York Jets 0.75
9 Tampa Bay Bucs 1.24 25 Batimore Ravens 0.72
10 Minnesota Vikings 1.17 26 Buffalo Bills 0.71
11 Philadelphia Eagles 1.12 27 Oakland Raiders 0.71
12 Washington Redskins 1.08 28 Kansas City Chiefs 0.67
13 New York Giants 1.06 29 Atlanta Falcons 0.63
14 Cleveland Browns 1.05 30 Miami Dolphins 0.61
15 Tennessee Titans 1.01 31 San Francisco 49ers 0.60
16 Arizona Cardinals 1.01 32 St. Louis Rams 0.60

At the end of the season the strongest team will earn about 2 points on offense for each point allowd. Divisional leaders will be near 1.5 points for each D point given up. And cellar-dwellers will earn only one point for each two points on D (a ratio of 0.5-to-1). The average team will score as many points as their D allows, earning a ratio of 1-to-1. This spells a won/lost recored near 8-8. In 2006 this balance-of-power stat corellated 97% with the scoring differential (winning margin) and in 2005, 98%. This offensive-defensive scoring balance of power is a most reliable Killer Stat.