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Projection Pages

NEW Predict Report, Vertical Format -- optimized for cellphones and other small screens:
--updated on Tuesdays

• Vertical Predict Report-Weighted
• Vertical Predict Report-Unweighted

Predict, Weighted
Predict Report-Weighted for 2023 week 21 is posted!
This season-long projection matrix includes a statistical contribution or "weight" from last season's stats. This weighting factor decreases over the first 4 weeks at which point this matrix becomes the same as the unweighted matrix.

Predict, Unweighted
Predict Report-Unweighted for 2023 week 21 is posted!
"Let the data speak for itself." This unweighted matrix will fluctuate in the first few games because of limited data. After 4-5 weeks it should start to identify the playoff contenders. It uses only this year's data.

Predict Calculator   up and running for week 21, 2023
This tool lets you matchup any two teams and get a prediction. The Predict Calculator also lets you make modifications to key "independent variables" and get a new prediction. It's useful if you know a star player is out. The statistical model is slightly different than our regular predict reports to allow this feature and you may find predictions that differ by a point or two.

Question: Why do winning margin predictions for games already played keep changing in later weeks' reports?

Each week we calculate new winning margins for all season's games. As the season goes on and we have more game data our new calculations should be better than the early season ones. This back caluculation lets us see how well the model is working to project all (even past) matchups. If you want to see the projection that was made during the week of the game, check the report for that week in the Archive.