2024 through Monday, Week 17

Power Ratings

According to Bud Goode's computer-aided analysis of pro football a good power rating system is determined by simply dividing points scored on offense by points allowed on defense.

The average team earns one point on offense for each point given up on defense and has a ratio of 1.00. Divisional champs earn 1.5 points for each point given up and cellar dwellers earn about 1 point for each 2 points allowed. An average team should be close to an 8-8 record.

Here are the power ratings for last year's playoff teams:

2023 Playoff Teams
1 Baltimore Ravens 1.84 7 Cleveland Browns 1.09
2 Buffalo Bills 1.53 8 New Orleans Saints 1.07
3 Miami Dolphins 1.36 9 L. A. Rams 1.05
4 Kansas City Chiefs 1.33 10 Indianapolis Colts 1.05
5 Houston Texans 1.22 11 Green Bay Packers 1.03
6 Philadelphia Eagles 1.11 12 Jacksonville Jaguars 1.03
2023: Super Bowl average = 1.60 Playoff average = 1.22

The ultimate playoff teams for this year will be the ones with the best balance. After week number 17 the computer power ratings are:

2024
1 Green Bay Packers 31.29 17 Houston Texans 0.97
2 Miami Dolphins 10.16 18 L. A. Rams 0.96
3 Baltimore Ravens 9.47 19 San Francisco 49ers 0.94
4 Detroit Lions 1.62 20 Atlanta Falcons 0.93
5 Philadelphia Eagles 1.53 21 Indianapolis Colts 0.87
6 Buffalo Bills 1.48 22 New Orleans Saints 0.86
7 Minnesota Vikings 1.41 23 Chicago Bears 0.82
8 Kansas City Chiefs 1.34 24 New York Jets 0.80
9 Washington Commanders 1.32 25 Dallas Cowboys 0.74
10 L. A. Chargers 1.31 26 Las Vegas Raiders 0.74
11 Tampa Bay Bucs 1.30 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 0.73
12 Denver Broncos 1.24 28 Tennessee Titans 0.68
13 Pittsburgh Steelers 1.11 29 New England Patriots 0.66
14 Cincinnati Bengals 1.09 30 New York Giants 0.66
15 Seattle Seahawks 1.01 31 Cleveland Browns 0.62
16 Arizona Cardinals 0.99 32 Carolina Panthers 0.60

At the end of the season the strongest team will earn about 2 points on offense for each point allowd. Divisional leaders will be near 1.5 points for each D point given up. And cellar-dwellers will earn only one point for each two points on D (a ratio of 0.5-to-1). The average team will score as many points as their D allows, earning a ratio of 1-to-1. This spells a won/lost recored near 8-8. In 2006 this balance-of-power stat corellated 97% with the scoring differential (winning margin) and in 2005, 98%. This offensive-defensive scoring balance of power is a most reliable Killer Stat.