NY Jets at Oakland Raiders

The Killer Stat, yards per pass attempt, looms large in the Jets-Raiders game. On offense both teams have a significant points advantage (see the Graphic Matchups chart).

The Jets with QB Chad Pennington earned 6.75 and face an Oakland D that allowed 5.71 yards per toss. Points advantage, 2.8 to Jets. Raiders' QB Rich Gannon earned 6.8 and Jets' D allowed 6.02. Points advantage, 4 to Raiders.

The Killer Stat (yards per attempt earned minus yards per attempt allowed) is the league's most important stat separating winners from losers. How important is it? In this 2002 season, yards per toss correlated 71% with the scoring differential. How do you interpret this info? Simply, it means that 71% of the game-to-game variation in scoring is linked to variation in yards per pass. A correlation this great carries a lotta' clout.

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Note in the Yards per Pass graph above the Jets and QB Pennington are improving every week (dark blue moving average line). In their playoff last week Pennington earned 8 yards per toss. League average is near 6. Reaching a season average of 8 yards per pass is an automatic Super Bowl invite. Look at the last three games, against tough opposition: New England, Green Bay, Colts.

The Killer Stat is a measure of the happy marriage between the passer and his receivers. Jets' QB Pennington throws to WRs Wayne Chrebet and Laveranues Coles and TE Anthony Becht. Their completion averages are in the range of 13-14 yards per catch. They have "hands."

Righthand chart above, the Killer Stat on defense, shows the Jets' D allowed their last three stalwart opponents a miserly 3 yards per toss (Brady, Patriots), 5 yards (Favre, Packers) and 3.9 yards to Manning (Colts). So the Jet's pass D is not simple hamburger.

On the other side of the field the Oakland Raiders feature QB Gannon and WRs Jerry Rice and Tim Brown. We all know Gannon. We all know Jerry Rice. And we all know the speed and hands of Tim Brown. Old guys with experience.

What we don't know much about are young QB Pennington and WR Coles. This young vs old competition will make the Jets/Raiders game fascinating.

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The Raiders' offense has been stronger than league average all year (dark blue line). Their pass D, from week 3 to 8 was slightly weaker than average. But beginning with the Denver Bronco game they finished strong with only the Jets' offense stronger than the Raider D.

If Jets' QB Pennington did it once, can he repeat?

And if Shakespeare had been a football fan, he might have said, "That is the question."

The electronic hardware projects a Raider victory by 8. But if the favored Raiders are upset by the Jets, then Coach Herm Edwards has a leg up on Coach of the Year.

Bud Goode and Bill Sanders

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