NFL 2002 Season Killer Stat

The New York Giants lead the NFL on Goode's Killer Stat, yards per pass, earning 1.6 yards per toss more on offense than their D allows. On this strong performance featuring QB Kerry Collins the Giants won 10 games. In the wildcard playoff game last week an officials' rules dispute led to a loss to the 49ers. Giants should still be in the running.

Other strong playoff teams found in the upper right corner of the chart below are the NFC's Bucs (+1.3 yards per toss and a 12 game winner) and the Eagles with a 0.6 yards earned on offense more than their D allowed. The Eagles' strong pass D made up for a modest pass offense (improving) and led to their 12 win season.

The AFC leaders are the Steelers and Raiders with the Steelers earning 1.1 yards more than their D allowed which contributed to their 11-5 record. In the wildcard game (vs Cleveland) the Steelers had 3 giveaways and still won the game by 3. The Raiders tie the Steelers at 1.1 yards plus, a performance producing 11 victories.

Based on the Killer Stat it is likely the Super Bowl winner will come from this group of top teams.

It is difficult to separate winner from loser when the league is heading toward parity. The old cliche, "On any given Sunday...." shows the weakest teams can knock off the strongest. It stands to reason that any strong team can defeat another.

History shows that the team with the strongest stat profile wins the Super Bowl once every 3 1/2 seasons. When Coach Dick Vermeil's Rams won in 1999 they led the league on the Killer stat and defeated the Titans in a close game. But the following 2000 season the Ravens finished the year with a modest yards per toss performance (on offense) and killed the Giants in the Big Game.

How about the weaker teams? Is a poor performance on the Killer Stat a road sign pointing to a cellar dweller performance in the win/lose column? The picture tells the story: The Cardinals are the league's weakest allowing -2.3 yards per pass attempt more than their offense earned. There is a shakeup now going on in the Cards' front office. The Lions (3 wins) and Texans (4 wins) allowed -2 yards per toss more than they earned; the Bengals, with -1.1 yards were feelin' puny with only 2 victories.

In the journalistic sense of who, what, when, where and why, the key statistical reason why teams win pro football games is Goode's yards per pass stat. The picture shows it is a true KILLER.

Bud Goode

Note: see also, NFC and AFC 2002 Season Killer Stat

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