Broncos at Colts

The Broncos-Colts game is one to ponder.

The electronic hardware uses season averages to make scoring projections based on 17 games. But teams run hot and cold. As we read below there is a great deal of variation around each stat's average.

During the season the Bronco QBs threw for a 5.9 yards per toss (our Killer Stat on offense). Only two weeks back with the return of QB Plummer from IR, the Broncs threw for 14 yards per pass against the Colts. Beat'em by 14.

Yards per Pass Att Denver Broncos 2003 through Week 17

Did you say game-to-game variation? Plummer's yards per toss performance set a league hi for the season.

The "averages" used in the equations for offense and defense do not take into account the early injury and loss of QB Plummer. And in the game against the Kansas City Chiefs, Bronco running back Portis and gang rolled for 270 rushing yards and 8 yards per carry. This produced 35 points and a win.

Yards Rushing (Net) Denver Broncos 2003 through Week 17

But last week Portis was held out of the Green Bay game.

Remembering these recent huge performance stats produces a "halo" effect. A fan thinks, "If the Broncos did well in the air and on the ground against tough opposition they can do it again."

Why not?

Bronco's Coach Shanahan is a sharpie. Holding key players out of season ending games makes good sense. The electronic hardware projects a tight, big play game and favours the Colts over the Broncos by 2.

Bud's personal computer, weighing two pounds and made out of meat, doesn't agree. Denver Broncos will drink champagne.

Bud Goode and Bill Sanders

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