Falcons at Eagles

Atlanta Falcons' QB Vick, with almost 900 rushing yards per game is a souped up hot rod RB. His cleats have a tight grip on NFL rugs and he makes short stops and quick starts.

But in the snow in Philadelphia? Then what?

Going to the air is not Vick's best trick. He is sacked almost 13% of the time. On this key passing efficiency stat the Falcons have lost -4.05 PPG . (See a stat graphic picturing the Falcons position relative to the league.

In all 5 Falcons' losses QB Vick was sacked 3 or more times (DET, KC, TB, NO and SEA). Since the sack contributes about 3 points per game to the scoring differential one or more sacks can determine the Championship game's outcome.

QB Sacks Atlanta Falcons 2004 through Week 17

By the same token, the Eagle's pass D stat graphic pictures 10 games with 3 or more opponent sacks, all wins. In the Eagles' three losses they sacked the opposing QB only twice in two games (PIT and STL -- both teams with efficient passing attacks) and no sacks vs CIN.

Opp QB Sacked Philadelphia Eagles 2004 through Week 17

Our Killer Stat, Yards per Pass is scheded to play an important part in this game: On offense the Eagles averaged 6.8 yards per toss. And even without WR Owens did well last week facing the Vikings earning a phenom 8.4 yards per pass and allowing only 5.8. This performance differential contributed 15 PPG to the Eagles' victory.

In this weekend's game the Eagles have an advantage of almost 2 PPG. (See a weekly stat graphic of Killer Stat, Yards per Pass for Eagles and Falcons on OFfense and Defense.)

If the two teams play to statistical form the computer projection is, Eagles over the Falcons by 8.

Bud Goode

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