Patriots at Steelers

When the Pittsburgh Steelers face the New England Patriots In the AFC Championship game the most important stat separating winner from loser belongs to the Steeler's RB 'Bus' Bettis.

At 255 pounds he is more locomotive than bus. Express bound towards the opponent goal line the Steelers set a high point on the key run/pass balance stat approaching 2-to-1 (18 rushing plays for each 10 pass attempts). (See stat graphic picturing the run/pass balance for the two teams relative to the league.)

In the past 20 years no team matched this power-packed run-run-run performance level. And when teams run they maintain clock control. Think about it. When your team owns the ball the opposition can't score. Playing "clock" ball creates a perfect defense.

And that's where Coach Bill Belichick comes on scene. One of the Patriots' statistical strengths is the intercepted pass on D. This season New England averaged 1.3 INTs per game. But a team can't throw three-tenths of an intercept. So the Pats, on average, should be expected to steal one -- or TWO big interceptions.

Below are weekly stat graphics of INTS for Steelers' offense and Patriots' defense. On this matchup, there's no points advantage for their season averages -- too close to make a difference.

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Note: the Pat's D lost games vs the Steelers and Dolphins, two games where they did NOT intercept a single pass.

A yearly stat graphic (below) pictures the Patriots' defensive interceptions falling off radically this season (loss of DB Ty Law). But at the same time, the winning margin improved. In recent history the picture shows the defensive INT was closely linked to winning. Years in which the defense improved the winning margin improved.

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But QB Brady's passing efficiency improved 5+ PPG and RB Cory Dillion's running game added 3+ points. So in spite of the losses in their defensive backfield the Pats are a stronger team.

Stat research this season shows that one INT contributes 5.55 points per game to the scoring differential (winning margin). If the Pats steal one more intercept than the Steelers, others things being equal, then the Pats should be favored in the Championship game.

If the two teams play to statistical form and the Steelers break even on INTS the computer projects a Steeler victory by 3.

Bud Goode

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