Jets at Chargers

The New York Jets visit the Chargers Saturday. A key stat to watch at half time is the run/pass balance.

Jets' RB Curtis Martin, who has been doing his four-wheel drive, power-running act all year, will be playing an encore. And the San Diego Chargers' RB, LaDanian Tomlinson's high-torque leg action helped push the Chargers to divisional leadership adding 14.2 PPG to the Chargers' winning margin.

And re the running game: In the last 20 years the league has never seen a run/pass balance like that of the Pittsburgh Steelers. On offense the Steelers lead the league with a 1.8-to-1 balance (18 rushes per 10 pass attempts).

A difference in performance this great is totally awesome. It is, in fact, so large that a sports statistician could say odds are 100-to-1 against this huge change occurring again this century.

As a general rule years in which the run/pass ratio improves the winning margin follows in lock-step. This does not mean that teams win because they run the ball. That is one possibility. But it is also likely teams improve on several stats and run up a lead. Then, as a result, in the last half they stay on the ground to protect their lead.

Warning: main(/home/budsport/public_html//res_access/yrchpage2-one-pub.php?var_num=var102&yearstart=2001&yearend=2004&team_num=19&var_comp=var123): failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /home/budsport/public_html/pub/p04-sd-nyj.php on line 61

Warning: main(): Failed opening '/home/budsport/public_html//res_access/yrchpage2-one-pub.php?var_num=var102&yearstart=2001&yearend=2004&team_num=19&var_comp=var123' for inclusion (include_path='.:/usr/local/lib/php') in /home/budsport/public_html/pub/p04-sd-nyj.php on line 61

Warning: main(/home/budsport/public_html//res_access/rg_yrchc-r.php?var_num=var102&yearstart=2001&yearend=2004&team_num=19&var_comp=var123): failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /home/budsport/public_html/pub/p04-sd-nyj.php on line 63

Warning: main(): Failed opening '/home/budsport/public_html//res_access/rg_yrchc-r.php?var_num=var102&yearstart=2001&yearend=2004&team_num=19&var_comp=var123' for inclusion (include_path='.:/usr/local/lib/php') in /home/budsport/public_html/pub/p04-sd-nyj.php on line 63

Warning: main(/home/budsport/public_html//res_access/yrchpage2-one-pub.php?var_num=var102&yearstart=2001&yearend=2004&team_num=24&var_comp=var123): failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /home/budsport/public_html/pub/p04-sd-nyj.php on line 69

Warning: main(): Failed opening '/home/budsport/public_html//res_access/yrchpage2-one-pub.php?var_num=var102&yearstart=2001&yearend=2004&team_num=24&var_comp=var123' for inclusion (include_path='.:/usr/local/lib/php') in /home/budsport/public_html/pub/p04-sd-nyj.php on line 69

Warning: main(/home/budsport/public_html//res_access/rg_yrchc-r.php?var_num=var102&yearstart=2001&yearend=2004&team_num=24&var_comp=var123): failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /home/budsport/public_html/pub/p04-sd-nyj.php on line 71

Warning: main(): Failed opening '/home/budsport/public_html//res_access/rg_yrchc-r.php?var_num=var102&yearstart=2001&yearend=2004&team_num=24&var_comp=var123' for inclusion (include_path='.:/usr/local/lib/php') in /home/budsport/public_html/pub/p04-sd-nyj.php on line 71

Since a team can't run and pass on the same play the more they run the less they pass. With fewer pass attempts their run/pass balance soars.

This idea is supported by our Killer Stat II, Points per Pass. (See a stat graphic picturing the two teams).

Almost guaranteed, the team with the run/pass balance and points per pass balance at the half will win. So do the simple division and you will be the first kid on the block to know the reason why.

Looking at the team stat profiles, if the teams play according to form, the Chargers win by 7.

Bud Goode and Bill Sanders

Copyright 2005, BudGoodeSports.com. All rights reserved.